Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T21:48:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
7A 0x7a01…fd3f other 45 markets active 1h ago coverage 458d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$9 (+1%) realized +$9 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate39%17W / 27L
Drawdown21%max
Avg bet$17per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit64%portable
Net worth$28now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 38% $0
world 32% +$1
politics 14% +$8
sports 8% $0
crypto 4% $0
tech 2% $0
culture 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-8.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 7 +0.3% -9.3% 14% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 13 -0.6% -10.1% 15% 0% -9.4%
all 44 +1.5% -8.2% 39% 2% -8.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.2% 2% -8.5%
10% -17.0% 2% -17.2%
15% -25.0% 2% -25.2%
20% -32.4% 2% -32.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 53% · top 2 75% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
94% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +3% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×3.09 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.76 per $1 lost it wins $3.76
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

458d coverage
Net worth$28
Realized+$9
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses17 / 27
Open positions1
Markets (closed)44 / 45
History coverage458d
Avg bet$17
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown21%
Kalshi-fit64%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 44 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? No 97¢ 97¢ $28 $28 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026? Jun 24 $31 $0 +0%
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? Jun 24 $58 $0 -0%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? Jun 23 $32 $0 +0%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 22 $3 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? May 27 $2 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? May 26 $10 $0 +3%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? May 26 $61 −$1 -1%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 25 $32 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 24 $14 −$1 -6%
Iran leadership change by June 30? May 23 $9 −$1 -9%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 23 $2 $0 -4%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 21 $28 +$3 +9%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? May 21 $28 $0 -0%
Will the New England Patriots win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 17 $2 $0 -6%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2025 World Series? Jun 26 $19 $0 -1%
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2025 World Series? May 22 $17 $0 +1%
Will Michelle Bachelet win the Chilean presidential election? May 22 $19 $0 +0%
Will reconciliation bill be passed by Memorial day? May 21 $18 $0 +0%
Will Luís Montenegro be the next Prime Minister of Portugal after the May 21 $17 +$1 +9%
Will Belgium win Eurovision 2025? May 15 $1 $0 +1%
Will Nottingham Forest finish in the top 4 of EPL? May 13 $17 $0 +1%
Will annual inflation increase by 2.6% in April? May 12 $16 $0 +0%
Will the Democratic Alliance win the most seats in the 2025 Portuguese May 11 $6 $0 +0%
Will Elon and DOGE cut between $150-200b in federal spending in 2025? May 11 $16 $0 +0%
Will Nicușor Dan win by 6–12%? May 11 $16 $0 +0%
Will the Denver Nuggets win the 2025 NBA Finals? May 10 $16 $0 +0%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2025 World Series? May 10 $16 $0 +0%
Will Pacers vs. Timberwolves be the 2025 NBA Finals matchup? May 09 $16 $0 -0%
Will Trump deport 500,000-750,000- people? May 09 $17 $0 +0%
Will egg prices be more than $6.25 in April? May 08 $16 $0 +0%
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2025 National League Championshi May 07 $16 $0 +0%
Will Luis Antonio Tagle be the next pope? May 07 $16 $0 +0%
Will the Arizona Diamondbacks win the 2025 World Series? May 06 $16 $0 -0%
Will 'A Minecraft Movie' have the best domestic opening weekend in 202 May 06 $16 $0 -0%
Will ODS win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary election? May 05 $16 $0 -0%
Will Matteo Zuppi be the next pope? Apr 30 $15 $0 +3%
Will OpenAI have the top AI model on April 30? Apr 29 $16 $0 +0%
Will the Liberal Party win the popular vote in Canada's next election? Apr 29 $13 $0 +1%
Will Bobby Kotick buy TikTok? Apr 29 $2 $0 +0%
Will the Liberal Party win the most seats in the next Canadian electio Apr 29 $10 +$6 +64%
Will the Conservative Party win by 50 or more seats? Apr 28 $10 $0 -2%
Will the Conservative Party win the most seats in Newfoundland and Lab Apr 28 $11 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2025? Apr 27 $13 $0 +0%
Will Aston Villa win the UEFA Champions League? Mar 30 $13 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $28 1h
Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $31 1h
Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $31 4h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $29 18h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $29 21h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? SELL No 93¢ $29 25h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? BUY No 93¢ $29 27h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 68¢ $32 31h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY No 68¢ $32 33h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes $3 45h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes $3 47h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes $2 28d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY Yes $2 29d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 31¢ $11 29d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 30¢ $10 29d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 49¢ $31 29d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 50¢ $32 29d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 50¢ $10 29d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 50¢ $20 29d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 50¢ $29 30d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? SELL No 78¢ $32 30d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? BUY No 78¢ $32 30d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 68¢ $13 30d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 72¢ $14 30d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL Yes 10¢ $8 32d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY Yes 11¢ $9 32d
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma SELL Yes $2 32d
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma BUY Yes $1 32d
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma BUY Yes $1 32d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL No 72¢ $4 34d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $28.12 · official $28.12 (match) · 123 history records