Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T22:27:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
7A 0x7a01…3d7f sports 12 markets active 0h ago coverage 3d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 3d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$116 (-12%) realized −$115 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate64%7W / 4L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$83per market
Trades / day6.8pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$139now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 83% −$116
other 17% −$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-22.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 -13.9% -22.1% 64% 45% -22.7%
≤30d 11 -13.9% -22.1% 64% 45% -22.7%
≤90d 11 -13.9% -22.1% 64% 45% -22.7%
all 11 -13.9% -22.1% 64% 45% -22.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -22.1% 45% -22.7%
10% -29.6% 9% -30.1%
15% -36.4% 0% -36.8%
20% -42.6% 0% -43.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 45% · top 2 60% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -14% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
29% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -14% · $-wt -14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$12 vs −$51 · ×0.23 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.4 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$139
Realized−$115
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)64%
Wins / losses7 / 4
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions1
Markets (closed)11 / 12
History coverage3d
Avg bet$83
Trades / day6.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 11 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 2.5 Over 70¢ 69¢ $140 $139 −$1 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $40 +$2 +6%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $50 +$7 +13%
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 0.5 Jun 24 $50 +$6 +12%
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 0.5 Jun 24 $72 +$4 +6%
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5 Jun 24 $71 −$70 -99%
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 1.5 Jun 24 $64 +$13 +20%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $81 −$17 -21%
England vs. Ghana: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $70 −$19 -27%
England vs. Ghana: O/U 1.5 Jun 23 $99 −$99 -100%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 3.5 Jun 23 $133 +$36 +27%
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 0.5 Jun 23 $120 +$13 +11%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 70¢ $141 11m
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 88¢ $42 1h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 83¢ $40 2h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 87¢ $57 22h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 76¢ $50 24h
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 94¢ $72 27h
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 89¢ $50 27h
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 71¢ $71 44h
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 73¢ $77 46h
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 60¢ $64 46h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 56¢ $64 46h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 69¢ $81 47h
England vs. Ghana: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 48¢ $51 2d
England vs. Ghana: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 84¢ $99 2d
England vs. Ghana: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 64¢ $70 2d
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 100¢ $169 2d
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 78¢ $133 2d
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $133 2d
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 90¢ $120 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $139.00 · official $139.02 (match) · 21 history records