Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T12:24:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
7A 0x7a01…dd54 world 35 markets active 1h ago coverage 461d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$1 (-0%) realized −$1 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR9%break-even
Win rate40%14W / 21L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$15per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$3
14 days−$3
30 days−$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 63% −$3
other 18% $0
tech 11% $0
politics 5% +$2
crypto 2% −$1
sports 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +9%
net ROI/market (all)-10.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -3.5% -12.7% 11% 0% -10.6%
≤30d 11 -2.9% -12.1% 18% 0% -10.3%
≤90d 11 -2.9% -12.1% 18% 0% -10.3%
all 35 -1.2% -10.6% 40% 9% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.6% 9% -9.8%
10% -19.2% 3% -18.4%
15% -27.0% 3% -26.3%
20% -34.1% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 30% · top 2 54% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
79% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.56 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.71 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

461d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses14 / 21
Open positions0
Markets (closed)35 / 35
History coverage461d
Avg bet$15
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 35 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 18 $43 $0 +0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 18 $16 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 17 $43 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 16 $7 $0 -5%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 15 $58 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $20 $0 +0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 13 $39 $0 -0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 12 $39 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 12 $11 −$3 -26%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $42 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 10 $46 $0 +0%
Will the Seattle Seahawks win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 22 $1 $0 -4%
Will Amazon buy TikTok? Dec 13 $11 $0 +1%
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president before July? Jun 27 $10 $0 +3%
Will DeepSeek have the top AI model on June 30? May 21 $16 $0 +0%
Will Kylian Mbappe win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? May 07 $10 $0 +0%
Will TikTok be banned again before May? May 06 $5 $0 +3%
Will Pierre Poilievre be the next Canadian Prime Minister? May 06 $6 +$1 +18%
Will Matteo Zuppi be the next pope? Apr 24 $6 $0 -1%
Will Péter Erdő be the next pope? Apr 24 $6 $0 +0%
Will Alexis Ohanian buy TikTok before July? Apr 23 $11 $0 +0%
Will the number of federal employees decrease by 50,000-100,000 betwee Apr 23 $5 +$1 +12%
Will the next Government of Canada be a Conservative majority? Apr 22 $5 $0 +3%
Will MrBeast buy TikTok before July? Apr 20 $5 $0 +0%
Will Sławomir Mentzen be the next President of Poland? Apr 18 $2 $0 -11%
Will Ethereum reach $2200 in April? Apr 18 $1 $0 -38%
Will Ethereum reach $2400 in April? Apr 17 $1 $0 -31%
Will Borussia Dortmund win the UEFA Champions League? Apr 17 $1 $0 +1%
Will Ethereum dip to $1000 in April? Apr 16 $9 $0 -1%
Will the Bloc Québécois win the most seats in Quebec in the next Canad Apr 14 $2 +$1 +37%
Will Trump pardon Derek Chauvin in his first 100 days? Apr 13 $9 $0 +0%
Will Czechia win Eurovision 2025? Apr 12 $9 $0 +0%
Will the New Democratic Party win the third most seats in the next Can Apr 12 $9 $0 +1%
Will DeepSeek have the top AI model on April 30? Apr 11 $9 $0 +0%
Will Austria win Eurovision 2025? Mar 19 $11 −$1 -5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 52¢ $43 1h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 52¢ $43 1h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $16 5h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $16 7h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $43 13h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 94¢ $43 15h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 17¢ $1 41h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 58¢ $14 2d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 58¢ $12 2d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 58¢ $17 2d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 58¢ $42 2d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 41¢ $1 2d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 41¢ $15 2d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 41¢ $4 3d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 41¢ $12 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 30¢ $6 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 30¢ $7 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 23¢ $11 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 23¢ $5 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 23¢ $3 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 23¢ $12 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 23¢ $8 4d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $22 5d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $17 5d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $39 5d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 87¢ $39 5d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 87¢ $3 5d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 87¢ $36 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 17¢ $8 6d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 23¢ $2 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 102 history records