Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T20:56:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
79 0x79fe…29ca world 32 markets active 2h ago coverage 467d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$2 (+0%) realized +$3 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate52%16W / 15L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$18per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit66%portable
Net worth$38now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days+$7
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 59% +$2
other 29% +$1
politics 4% −$2
crypto 2% $0
economics 2% $0
weather 2% $0
tech 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-15.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -3.2% -12.5% 40% 0% -10.4%
≤30d 11 +0.0% -9.5% 45% 0% -7.9%
≤90d 11 +0.0% -9.5% 45% 0% -7.9%
all 31 -6.1% -15.0% 52% 3% -9.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.0% 3% -9.2%
10% -23.2% 3% -17.9%
15% -30.6% 3% -25.8%
20% -37.4% 0% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 34% · top 2 61% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
94% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late -6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.66 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.18 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

467d coverage
Net worth$38
Realized+$3
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses16 / 15
Open positions1
Markets (closed)31 / 32
History coverage467d
Avg bet$18
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit66%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 31 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Yes 27¢ 26¢ $38 $38 −$1 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 20 $2 $0 -4%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 19 $14 $0 +1%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 19 $52 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 18 $58 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 17 $10 −$1 -14%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 27 $51 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 26 $53 +$1 +2%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 25 $43 +$4 +8%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? May 25 $50 +$4 +9%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? May 25 $50 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 25 $17 $0 -2%
Will Flamengo win the FIFA Club World Cup? Dec 14 $1 $0 +6%
Will the number of federal employees decrease by less than 25,000 betw Jun 27 $7 −$3 -48%
Will the candidate from the People Power Party win the South Korean Pr Jun 06 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Ethereum dip to $1200 in May? Jun 03 $1 $0 +1%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the Eastern Conference? May 15 $6 +$3 +47%
Will the Giants draft Cameron Ward? Apr 27 $2 $0 +1%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Apr 19 $6 $0 +0%
Will Han Duck-soo be elected the next president of South Korea? Apr 17 $7 $0 +1%
Will the Montreal Canadiens win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Apr 15 $7 $0 +0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after June 2025 meeting? Apr 15 $7 $0 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the Democratic Primary for Mayor of New York Apr 14 $7 $0 +0%
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. be out as Secretary of Health and Human Ser Apr 13 $7 $0 +0%
TikTok sale announced before May? Apr 13 $7 $0 +1%
Will the Milwaukee Bucks win the Eastern Conference? Apr 12 $7 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 575-599 times March 14-21? Mar 22 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in NYC be 48°F or below on March 14? Mar 15 $12 $0 +2%
Ripple above $2.45 on March 14? Mar 14 $9 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Kings win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Mar 14 $13 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $85000 and $87000 on Mar 14? Mar 12 $13 $0 -4%
Will Bayern Munich or Bayer Leverkusen advance in the UCL Round of 16? Mar 12 $13 $0 +4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 27¢ $38 1h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 11¢ $2 11h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $2 15h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $1 21h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $9 21h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $10 24h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes 7¢ $1 26h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes 7¢ $2 26h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes 7¢ $1 26h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $4 29h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 82¢ $5 36h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 82¢ $48 36h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 82¢ $52 39h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL No 67¢ $58 47h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY No 67¢ $58 47h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 6¢ $5 2d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 5¢ $1 2d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 5¢ $2 2d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 6¢ $10 3d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL Yes 52¢ $12 24d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL Yes 52¢ $39 24d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY Yes 52¢ $6 24d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY Yes 52¢ $5 24d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY Yes 52¢ $41 24d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 55¢ $23 24d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 55¢ $26 24d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 55¢ $5 24d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 54¢ $16 25d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 54¢ $37 25d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? SELL No 65¢ $8 25d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $37.63 · official $37.63 (match) · 105 history records