Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T04:18:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
79 0x79fb…e910 sports 19 markets active 2h ago coverage 170d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$362 (-40%) realized −$361 · open −$1
Gross ROI / mkt -24% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -32% what you keep after slip
Net edge-32%after slip
Net WR28%break-even
Win rate67%12W / 6L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$47per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit84%portable
Net worth$112now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days−$84
30 days−$106
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 80% −$369
other 6% +$5
world 5% $0
tech 3% $0
culture 3% +$1
crypto 2% $0
weather 2% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +28%
net ROI/market (all)-31.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 4 -31.0% -37.6% 50% 50% -41.9%
≤90d 13 -27.6% -34.5% 62% 31% -56.8%
all 18 -24.3% -31.5% 67% 28% -51.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -31.5% 28% -51.3%
10% -38.0% 22% -56.0%
15% -44.0% 6% -60.2%
20% -49.5% 0% -64.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 42% · top 2 73% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -52% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
58% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -24% · $-wt -46% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -31% → late -18% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$72 · ×0.08 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.17 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

170d coverage
Net worth$112
Realized−$361
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses12 / 6
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions1
Markets (closed)18 / 19
History coverage170d
Avg bet$47
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit84%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 18 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 3.5 Under 80¢ 80¢ $112 $112 −$1 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 08 $85 −$84 -99%
Colorado Rockies vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 01 $75 −$74 -99%
LoL: KT Rolster vs T1 (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 28 $69 +$22 +32%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs HANJIN BRION (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 21 $69 +$30 +44%
Counter-Strike: 100 Thieves vs Lavked (BO3) - CCT Europe Series 1 Play May 13 $142 −$141 -99%
Bill Clinton charged by March 31? May 13 $14 $0 +2%
Will global temperature increase by between 1.10ºC and 1.14ºC in Febru May 13 $16 +$1 +3%
Will the ECB announce no change at the March 2026 meeting? May 13 $19 $0 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from April 10 to April 17, 2026? May 13 $18 +$5 +28%
Will Wagner Moura win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards? May 13 $26 +$1 +5%
Thunder vs. Suns May 13 $32 +$8 +26%
LoL: HANJIN BRION vs BNK FEARX (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 07 $42 −$42 -99%
Trail Blazers vs. Spurs Apr 28 $91 −$88 -98%
Will the US next strike Iran on February 12, 2026 (ET)? Feb 09 $4 −$4 -100%
Israel strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? Feb 03 $17 +$3 +20%
Will XRP reach $4.00 in January? Feb 03 $20 $0 +0%
Will Microsoft dip to $338 in January? Feb 03 $27 $0 +1%
US-Iran nuclear deal in 2025? Jan 06 $23 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $111.63 · official $111.63 (match) · 31 history records