Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T17:51:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
79 0x79f7…087c other 29 markets active 2h ago coverage 133d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL −$970 (-58%) realized −$946 · open −$24
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -75% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -78% what you keep after slip
Net edge-78%after slip
Net WR7%break-even
Win rate7%2W / 25L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$57per market
Trades / day1.3pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit52%portable
Net worth$239now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$54
7 days+$60
14 days+$60
30 days+$60
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 37% −$224
crypto 16% −$122
finance 16% −$257
world 15% −$238
politics 12% −$110
sports 3% −$34
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)-77.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +67.3% +51.4% 67% 67% +34.3%
≤30d 3 +67.3% +51.4% 67% 67% +34.3%
≤90d 6 -7.5% -16.3% 33% 33% -47.8%
all 27 -75.1% -77.5% 7% 7% -77.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -77.5% 7% -77.4%
10% -79.6% 7% -79.5%
15% -81.6% 7% -81.5%
20% -83.4% 7% -83.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 57% · top 2 100% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -42% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -75% · $-wt -79% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -95% → late -56% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
5.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$47 vs −$42 · ×1.11 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.09 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

133d coverage
Net worth$239
Realized−$946
Unrealized−$24
Win rate (resolved)7%
Wins / losses2 / 25
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)27 / 29
History coverage133d
Avg bet$57
Trades / day1.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit52%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 27 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $241 $220 −$21 (-9%)
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $22 $19 −$3 (-15%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 17 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 June 22-28? Jun 26 $29 +$54 +186%
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) Jun 23 $48 −$34 -70%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 21 $47 +$40 +85%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in April? Apr 30 $107 −$95 -89%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of March? Mar 31 $63 −$57 -90%
Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $3,600 by end of March? Mar 29 $130 −$87 -67%
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in March? Mar 19 $98 −$45 -46%
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from March 6 to March 13, 2026? Mar 13 $33 −$33 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 580+ tweets from March 10 to March 17, 2026? Mar 13 $14 −$14 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 500-519 tweets from March 10 to March 17, 2026? Mar 13 $18 −$18 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 520-539 tweets from March 10 to March 17, 2026? Mar 13 $11 −$11 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from March 10 to March 17, 2026? Mar 13 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 540-559 tweets from March 10 to March 17, 2026? Mar 13 $14 −$14 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from March 10 to March 17, 2026? Mar 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from March 10 to March 17, 2026? Mar 12 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 560-579 tweets from March 10 to March 17, 2026? Mar 12 $22 −$22 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets from March 10 to March 17, 2026? Mar 12 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from March 10 to March 17, 2026? Mar 12 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Trump say "Jesus" this week? (March 8) Mar 11 $47 −$47 -100%
Will Iran strike Iraq in March? Mar 07 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the US next strike Iran on February 28, 2026 (ET)? Mar 04 $59 −$49 -82%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on March 8? Mar 04 $30 −$26 -88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 2, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Mar 02 $10 −$10 -100%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? Mar 02 $10 −$5 -50%
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026? Feb 28 $181 −$181 -100%
Moltbook shutdown by Feb 28? Feb 14 $60 −$60 -100%
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $6,500 (LOW) in February 2026? Feb 13 $201 −$201 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $30 1h
Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 June 22-28? SELL Yes 21¢ $29 1h
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $53 27h
Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 June 22-28? SELL Yes 55¢ $53 27h
Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 June 22-28? BUY Yes 11¢ $29 32h
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 1¢ $29 32h
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $15 3d
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) SELL Uzbekistan 19¢ $15 3d
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) BUY Uzbekistan 60¢ $48 3d
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $39 7d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 81¢ $39 7d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 48¢ $47 8d
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $103 8d
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $7 57d
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in April? SELL Yes 0¢ $7 57d
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in April? BUY Yes 2¢ $20 58d
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in April? BUY Yes 3¢ $60 60d
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $4 60d
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in April? SELL Yes 2¢ $4 60d
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in April? BUY Yes 13¢ $27 64d
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $30 77d
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $6 77d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of March? SELL Yes 0¢ $6 87d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of March? BUY Yes 2¢ $50 88d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of March? BUY Yes 4¢ $13 88d
Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $3,600 by end of March? SELL Yes 0¢ $13 89d
Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $3,600 by end of March? BUY Yes 2¢ $18 93d
Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $3,600 by end of March? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 93d
Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $3,600 by end of March? BUY Yes 2¢ $2 93d
Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $3,600 by end of March? BUY Yes 2¢ $4 93d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $238.89 · official $238.89 (match) · 304 history records