Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T01:24:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
79 0x79f7…f5fe crypto 833 markets active 10h ago coverage 35d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$87 (-2%) realized −$87 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR64%break-even
Win rate71%590W / 243L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day29.5pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$25
7 days−$16
14 days−$17
30 days−$65
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$120
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +64%
net ROI/market (all)-14.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 40 -11.2% -19.7% 62% 62% -19.4%
≤30d 495 -5.2% -14.2% 68% 67% -12.6%
≤90d 833 -5.1% -14.1% 71% 64% -12.6%
all 833 -5.1% -14.1% 71% 64% -12.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover29.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -14.1% 64% -12.6%
10% ← realistic here -22.3% 55% -21.0%
15% -29.8% 23% -28.6%
20% -36.7% 10% -35.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 1% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
10% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$4 · ×0.35 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.86 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

35d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$87
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)71%
Wins / losses590 / 243
Open positions0
Markets (closed)833 / 833
History coverage35d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day29.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 833 Trades
no open positions (225 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 17 $4 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 17 $4 +$1 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 17 $4 +$1 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 17 $4 +$1 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 16 $4 +$1 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 16 $4 +$1 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 16 $4 +$2 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 16 $4 +$2 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 16 $3 +$2 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 16 $4 +$2 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 16 $4 −$3 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 16 $4 +$2 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 15 $4 +$2 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 15 $4 +$1 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 15 $4 +$1 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 14 $4 +$1 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 14 $4 +$1 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 14 $4 +$1 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 13 $4 +$2 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 13 $3 +$2 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 12 $3 +$2 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 12 $4 +$2 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 12 $4 +$2 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 12 $4 +$1 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 12 $4 +$1 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 12 $4 −$4 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 11 $3 +$2 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 11 $4 +$1 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 10 $4 +$1 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 10 $4 +$1 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 10 $4 +$1 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 10 $3 +$2 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 10 $3 +$2 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 10 $4 −$4 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 09 $4 +$1 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 09 $3 +$2 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 09 $3 +$2 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 09 $4 −$4 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Up 58¢ $4 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Down 70¢ $4 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Up 72¢ $4 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Up 65¢ $3 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Down 72¢ $4 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Down 72¢ $4 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Down 74¢ $4 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 71¢ $4 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Down 73¢ $4 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Up 74¢ $4 33h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Up 68¢ $3 33h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Up 72¢ $4 33h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Up 70¢ $4 34h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET BUY Up 69¢ $4 34h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Up 70¢ $4 34h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Up 63¢ $3 34h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET BUY Down 67¢ $4 34h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Up 66¢ $4 35h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Down 70¢ $4 39h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Down 75¢ $4 40h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Down 68¢ $4 40h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Down 70¢ $4 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET BUY Down 70¢ $4 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Down 74¢ $4 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 67¢ $3 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Down 70¢ $4 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET BUY Down 74¢ $4 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Down 69¢ $4 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Down 71¢ $4 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET BUY Up 75¢ $4 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1631 history records