Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T04:22:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
79 0x79f5…79c7 other 47 markets active 0h ago coverage 5d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$615 (-14%) realized −$522 · open −$93
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +28% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -1% what you keep after slip
Net edge-1%after slip
Net WR61%break-even
Win rate64%18W / 10L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$92per market
Trades / day26.6pace
Fees−$16est.
Kalshi-fit45%portable
Net worth$1,442now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 5d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 65% −$937
sports 27% +$386
crypto 4% +$160
world 2% −$100
tech 1% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +61%
net ROI/market (all)+16.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 28 +28.3% +16.1% 64% 61% -23.2%
≤30d 28 +28.3% +16.1% 64% 61% -23.2%
≤90d 28 +28.3% +16.1% 64% 61% -23.2%
all 28 +28.3% +16.1% 64% 61% -23.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover26.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +16.1% 61% -23.2%
10% ← realistic here +5.0% 57% -30.6%
15% -5.2% 57% -37.3%
20% -14.5% 50% -43.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 31% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -15% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +28% · $-wt -15% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late +54% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$54 vs −$138 · ×0.39 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.71 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage
Net worth$1,442
Realized−$522
Unrealized−$93
Win rate (resolved)64%
Wins / losses18 / 10
Est. fees paid−$16
Open positions19
Markets (closed)28 / 47
History coverage5d
Avg bet$92
Trades / day26.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit45%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 19 History 28 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 64¢ 62¢ $297 $285 −$12 (-4%)
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score No 60¢ 60¢ $198 $196 −$2 (-1%)
Will Belgium reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 68¢ 61¢ $164 $147 −$17 (-10%)
Will Austria reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 31¢ 28¢ $148 $132 −$16 (-11%)
Will Brazil reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Yes 21¢ 16¢ $166 $124 −$43 (-26%)
Will Argentina win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 72¢ 84¢ $99 $116 +$17 (+17%)
Will South America (CONMEBOL) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 21¢ 18¢ $98 $81 −$16 (-17%)
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Yes 80¢ 80¢ $75 $74 −$0 (-0%)
Will Sweden advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 64¢ 94¢ $41 $60 +$19 (+48%)
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? Yes 83¢ 82¢ $50 $49 −$0 (-1%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? Yes 70¢ 69¢ $45 $45 −$0 (-0%)
Will Tunisia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 66¢ 92¢ $23 $33 +$9 (+40%)
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Yes 65¢ 64¢ $25 $25 −$0 (-1%)
Will Portugal reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Yes 20¢ 20¢ $24 $24 −$1 (-2%)
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 1 DR Congo? Yes 12¢ 8¢ $24 $15 −$9 (-37%)
Will Austria win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 13¢ 12¢ $15 $13 −$1 (-8%)
Will Sweden reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 36¢ 40¢ $9 $10 +$1 (+11%)
OpenAI IPO before 2027? Yes 53¢ 50¢ $9 $9 −$1 (-7%)
Will a player representing Turkiye be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $26 $5 −$22 (-82%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 17 $40 +$32 +79%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 17 $100 +$95 +95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 17 $30 +$26 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 17 $20 +$14 +69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 16 $15 +$28 +189%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 16 $35 +$31 +87%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $100 −$100 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 16 $10 +$6 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 16 $40 +$24 +60%
Uruguay to score first vs. Saudi Arabia? Jun 16 $50 +$46 +93%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $50 +$98 +197%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $510 −$510 -100%
Spain leading at halftime? Jun 15 $200 −$200 -100%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $200 +$96 +48%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $35 −$35 -100%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $70 +$11 +15%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 15 $50 +$207 +414%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $155 −$155 -100%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $95 +$85 +89%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $200 +$16 +8%
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 0 Curaçao? Jun 14 $30 −$30 -100%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $205 −$205 -100%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $70 +$30 +43%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $75 +$80 +107%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $25 −$25 -100%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $100 +$55 +55%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $77 −$77 -100%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $40 −$40 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET SELL Down 82¢ $72 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $10 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET BUY Down 34¢ $10 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $20 6m
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) SELL Argentina 99¢ $195 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET SELL Up 94¢ $56 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $15 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $15 1h
Will Austria win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 13¢ $15 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET SELL Down 80¢ $34 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $20 1h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Argentina 50¢ $100 2h
Will Sweden reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 36¢ $8 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Down 33¢ $15 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET SELL Down 98¢ $66 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $15 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Down 63¢ $20 13h
Will Sweden reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 36¢ $1 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET BUY Down 61¢ $10 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Up 62¢ $20 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $20 28h
Uruguay to score first vs. Saudi Arabia? SELL No 100¢ $39 28h
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? SELL Yes 99¢ $73 28h
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? SELL Yes 58¢ $75 28h
Uruguay to score first vs. Saudi Arabia? SELL No 48¢ $57 29h
Uruguay to score first vs. Saudi Arabia? BUY No 31¢ $50 30h
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $50 30h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 55¢ $100 30h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 61¢ $55 34h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 79¢ $30 35h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,441.67 · official $1,441.68 (match) · 170 history records