Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T15:45:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
79 0x79f4…4afb politics 695 markets active 2h ago coverage 597d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Covers last 597d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$30,175 (-41%) realized −$30,146 · open −$29
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -26% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -36% what you keep after slip
Net edge-36%after slip
Net WR21%break-even
Win rate22%150W / 527L
Whale WR30%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$106per market
Trades / day5.2pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$254now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$114
7 days−$617
14 days−$524
30 days+$281
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 77% −$33,292
world 12% +$2,038
other 6% −$512
crypto 3% +$246
economics 1% +$23
tech 1% +$107
sports 0% +$134
finance 0% −$57
culture 0% −$38
weather 0% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +21%
net ROI/market (all)-33.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 67 -27.6% -34.5% 16% 15% -36.6%
≤30d 125 -17.2% -25.1% 23% 22% -5.1%
≤90d 325 -36.2% -42.3% 18% 17% -22.6%
all 677 -26.1% -33.2% 22% 21% -48.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -33.2% 21% -48.4%
10% -39.5% 20% -53.3%
15% -45.4% 19% -57.8%
20% -50.7% 18% -62.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -15% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -26% · $-wt -43% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 30% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -18% → late -34% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
4.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$82 vs −$83 · ×0.99 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.28 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

597d coverage
Net worth$254
Realized−$30,146
Unrealized−$29
Win rate (resolved)22%
Wins / losses150 / 527
Whale WR (big bets)30%
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions18
Markets (closed)677 / 695
History coverage597d ⚠
Avg bet$106
Trades / day5.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 18 History 677 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.5T and $2.0T at market close on last trading day of IPO month? Yes 18¢ 17¢ $45 $42 −$2 (-6%)
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.5T and $3.0T at market close on last trading day of IPO month? Yes 26¢ 25¢ $31 $30 −$0 (-0%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 3¢ $16 $30 +$14 (+84%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 3¢ $19 $27 +$8 (+44%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $23 $25 +$2 (+9%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+0%)
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $18 $17 −$1 (-6%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $19 $13 −$6 (-32%)
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 4¢ 5¢ $8 $10 +$2 (+21%)
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $15 $7 −$7 (-50%)
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $10 $6 −$4 (-41%)
Will Uruguay reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Yes 4¢ 2¢ $7 $5 −$2 (-29%)
Will Benjamin Netanyahu sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? Yes 9¢ 3¢ $13 $5 −$8 (-65%)
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? No 3¢ 1¢ $11 $4 −$7 (-65%)
Will Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-25%)
Trump out as President by June 30? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $10 $4 −$6 (-62%)
Will John Fleming be the republican nominee for Senate in Louisiana? Yes 9¢ 3¢ $9 $3 −$6 (-65%)
Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by June 30? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $4 $1 −$3 (-68%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 308 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 1 Korea Republic? Jun 19 $15 −$15 -98%
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 0 Korea Republic? Jun 19 $20 −$20 -98%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Canada 3 - 1 Qatar? Jun 18 $7 −$7 -97%
Exact Score: Canada 3 - 0 Qatar? Jun 18 $9 −$9 -98%
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 0 Qatar? Jun 18 $14 −$14 -98%
Exact Score: Czechia 1 - 1 South Africa? Jun 18 $6 +$29 +470%
Exact Score: Canada 0 - 1 Qatar? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Canada 0 - 0 Qatar? Jun 18 $7 −$7 -97%
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 1 Qatar? Jun 18 $12 −$12 -97%
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 1 Qatar? Jun 18 $14 −$14 -97%
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 0 Qatar? Jun 18 $16 −$16 -98%
Exact Score: Czechia 1 - 0 South Africa? Jun 18 $9 −$4 -46%
Exact Score: Czechia 3 - 0 South Africa? Jun 18 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: Czechia 2 - 0 South Africa? Jun 18 $8 −$8 -98%
Exact Score: Czechia 3 - 1 South Africa? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Czechia 1 - 2 South Africa? Jun 18 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: Czechia 2 - 1 South Africa? Jun 18 $6 −$6 -97%
Exact Score: Czechia 0 - 1 South Africa? Jun 18 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: Ghana 1 - 0 Panama? Jun 18 $9 +$55 +596%
Exact Score: Czechia 0 - 0 South Africa? Jun 18 $3 −$3 -97%
Exact Score: Ghana 0 - 0 Panama? Jun 18 $11 +$23 +203%
Exact Score: Ghana 1 - 1 Panama? Jun 17 $14 −$14 -98%
Exact Score: Ghana 0 - 1 Panama? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: Ghana 2 - 1 Panama? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Ghana 2 - 0 Panama? Jun 17 $6 −$6 -97%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $16 −$16 -98%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 17 $295 −$97 -33%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 17 $92 +$44 +48%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -97%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $12 −$12 -97%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 DR Congo? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 0 DR Congo? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 DR Congo? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: England 3 - 2 Croatia? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: England 2 - 2 Croatia? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -97%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 17 $579 −$579 -100%
Exact Score: England 1 - 1 Croatia? Jun 17 $12 −$12 -98%
Exact Score: England 3 - 1 Croatia? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: England 2 - 1 Croatia? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 17 $15 −$15 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 17 $11 −$10 -94%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -97%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $20 +$24 +118%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $21 −$20 -97%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $15 −$15 -98%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $26 −$25 -98%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $10 −$2 -16%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $5 −$4 -76%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.5T and $3.0T at market close on BUY Yes 26¢ $32 1h
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.5T and $2.0T at market close on BUY Yes 18¢ $46 1h
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 1 Korea Republic? BUY Yes 13¢ $15 36h
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 0 Korea Republic? BUY Yes 21¢ $20 37h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY No 10¢ $10 40h
Exact Score: Canada 3 - 1 Qatar? BUY Yes 6¢ $2 41h
Exact Score: Canada 3 - 0 Qatar? BUY Yes 16¢ $3 41h
Exact Score: Canada 3 - 1 Qatar? BUY Yes 9¢ $2 41h
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 0 Qatar? BUY Yes 17¢ $4 41h
Exact Score: Canada 3 - 0 Qatar? BUY Yes 17¢ $6 41h
Exact Score: Canada 3 - 1 Qatar? BUY Yes 8¢ $3 42h
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 0 Qatar? BUY Yes 15¢ $6 42h
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 0 Qatar? BUY Yes 16¢ $4 45h
Exact Score: Canada 0 - 1 Qatar? BUY Yes 4¢ $5 45h
Exact Score: Canada 0 - 0 Qatar? BUY Yes 6¢ $7 45h
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 1 Qatar? BUY Yes 11¢ $12 45h
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 1 Qatar? BUY Yes 9¢ $14 45h
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 0 Qatar? BUY Yes 13¢ $16 45h
Exact Score: Czechia 1 - 1 South Africa? SELL Yes 79¢ $3 45h
Exact Score: Czechia 1 - 1 South Africa? SELL Yes 74¢ $4 45h
Exact Score: Czechia 1 - 1 South Africa? SELL Yes 68¢ $5 45h
Exact Score: Czechia 1 - 1 South Africa? SELL Yes 66¢ $9 45h
Exact Score: Czechia 1 - 0 South Africa? SELL Yes 43¢ $5 46h
Exact Score: Czechia 1 - 0 South Africa? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 47h
Exact Score: Czechia 3 - 0 South Africa? BUY Yes 11¢ $2 47h
Exact Score: Czechia 2 - 0 South Africa? BUY Yes 15¢ $4 47h
Exact Score: Czechia 3 - 1 South Africa? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 2d
Exact Score: Czechia 1 - 2 South Africa? BUY Yes 6¢ $2 2d
Exact Score: Czechia 1 - 1 South Africa? BUY Yes 14¢ $2 2d
Exact Score: Czechia 2 - 1 South Africa? BUY Yes 11¢ $2 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $253.50 · official $253.55 (match) · 3500 history records