Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T22:41:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
79 0x79f2…30ba other 30 markets active 2h ago coverage 117d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$87 (+2%) realized +$87 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate89%25W / 3L
Drawdown15%max
Avg bet$124per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit37%portable
Net worth$1,338now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days−$5
30 days+$52
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 45% +$50
tech 36% +$1
world 7% +$1
sports 7% +$2
politics 3% $0
crypto 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-7.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 11 +4.6% -5.3% 91% 9% -6.5%
≤90d 25 +2.1% -7.6% 92% 4% -7.2%
all 28 +1.9% -7.8% 89% 4% -7.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.8% 4% -7.5%
10% -16.6% 4% -16.3%
15% -24.7% 4% -24.4%
20% -32.1% 4% -31.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 87% · top 2 93% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
96% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late +4% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$9 · ×0.27 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×6.77 per $1 lost it wins $6.77
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

117d coverage
Net worth$1,338
Realized+$87
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)89%
Wins / losses25 / 3
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions2
Markets (closed)28 / 30
History coverage117d
Avg bet$124
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown15%
Kalshi-fit37%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 28 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $839 $839 +$0 (+0%)
Will White House post 60-79 posts from June 23 to June 30, 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $500 $499 −$1 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1T? Jun 12 $1,299 +$1 +0%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $26 −$9 -37%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $40 +$4 +9%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 08 $73 +$56 +77%
Will Chainlink dip to $4 in April? Jun 08 $5 $0 +0%
Will Chainlink reach $18 in April? Jun 08 $10 $0 +0%
Will Chainlink reach $16 in April? Jun 08 $10 $0 +0%
Will Chainlink reach $20 in April? Jun 08 $10 $0 +0%
Will Chainlink dip to $2 in April? Jun 08 $20 $0 +0%
Will BNB dip to $200 in April? Jun 08 $20 $0 +0%
Will BNB reach $1,000 in April? Jun 08 $36 $0 +0%
Mobile Legends Bang Bang: Twisted Minds PH vs TNC Pro Team (BO3) - MPL May 16 $248 +$2 +1%
Mobile Legends Bang Bang: EVOS vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - MPL Indonesia May 16 $0 $0 +0%
Will "Mickey Mouse" be said during the first episode of the Joe Rogan Apr 21 $16 $0 +0%
Will "Dude" be said 10+ times during the first episode of the Joe Roga Apr 21 $13 $0 +0%
Will "Fuck" or "Fucking" be said 10+ times during the first episode of Apr 21 $11 $0 +0%
Will "Shit" be said 10+ times during the first episode of the Joe Roga Apr 21 $13 $0 +0%
Will "Crazy" be said 15+ times during the first episode of the Joe Rog Apr 21 $8 $0 +0%
Will "Monkey" be said during the first episode of the Joe Rogan Experi Apr 21 $15 $0 +0%
Will Trump say "Pilot" or "Crew" or "Staff" 5+ times during Monday new Apr 21 $64 $0 +0%
Will NVIDIA reach $228 in March? Apr 06 $32 $0 +0%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by March 31? Apr 06 $32 $0 +0%
Will Trump say "Maduro" during Cabinet meeting on March 26? Mar 30 $20 $0 +0%
Will Trump say "No No No" during Cabinet meeting on March 26? Mar 30 $44 $0 +0%
US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026? Mar 26 $63 $0 +0%
Will Tesla reach $600 in February? Feb 28 $23 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $800 in February? Feb 28 $40 $0 +0%
US strikes Iran by February 25, 2026? Feb 27 $200 +$1 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will White House post 60-79 posts from June 23 to June 30, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $500 1h
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $839 1h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1T? BUY Yes 100¢ $1,299 10d
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $16 12d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $44 12d
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $53 14d
Mobile Legends Bang Bang: EVOS vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - MPL Indonesia BUY EVOS $0 37d
Mobile Legends Bang Bang: EVOS vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - MPL Indonesia BUY EVOS $0 37d
Mobile Legends Bang Bang: Twisted Minds PH vs TNC Pro Team (BO3) - MPL BUY Twisted Minds PH 99¢ $248 37d
Will BNB reach $1,000 in April? BUY No 100¢ $36 62d
Will BNB dip to $200 in April? BUY No 100¢ $20 62d
Will Chainlink dip to $4 in April? BUY No 100¢ $5 62d
Will Chainlink dip to $2 in April? BUY No 100¢ $20 62d
Will Chainlink reach $16 in April? BUY No 100¢ $10 62d
Will Chainlink reach $18 in April? BUY No 100¢ $10 62d
Will Chainlink reach $20 in April? BUY No 100¢ $10 62d
Will "Mickey Mouse" be said during the first episode of the Joe Rogan BUY No 100¢ $16 62d
Will "Monkey" be said during the first episode of the Joe Rogan Experi BUY Yes 100¢ $15 62d
Will "Shit" be said 10+ times during the first episode of the Joe Roga BUY Yes 100¢ $13 62d
Will "Dude" be said 10+ times during the first episode of the Joe Roga BUY Yes 100¢ $13 62d
Will "Fuck" or "Fucking" be said 10+ times during the first episode of BUY Yes 100¢ $11 62d
Will "Crazy" be said 15+ times during the first episode of the Joe Rog BUY Yes 100¢ $8 62d
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $76 70d
Will Trump say "Pilot" or "Crew" or "Staff" 5+ times during Monday new BUY Yes 100¢ $64 77d
Will NVIDIA reach $228 in March? BUY No 100¢ $32 84d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by March 31? BUY No 100¢ $32 84d
Will Trump say "No No No" during Cabinet meeting on March 26? BUY No 100¢ $44 88d
Will Trump say "Maduro" during Cabinet meeting on March 26? BUY No 100¢ $20 88d
US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026? BUY Yes 100¢ $63 114d
Will Ethereum dip to $800 in February? SELL No 100¢ $40 114d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,338.05 · official $1,338.05 (match) · 171 history records