trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 7 | -38.5% | -44.3% | 29% | 29% | -25.3% |
| ≤30d | 8 | -25.0% | -32.2% | 38% | 38% | -18.1% |
| ≤90d | 22 | -22.3% | -29.7% | 36% | 36% | -31.5% |
| all | 22 | -22.3% | -29.7% | 36% | 36% | -31.5% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -29.7% | 36% | -31.5% |
| 10% | -36.5% | 32% | -38.1% |
| 15% | -42.6% | 32% | -44.0% |
| 20% | -48.2% | 27% | -49.5% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 17? | No | 88¢ | 89¢ | $88 | $89 | +$1 (+1%) |
| Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? | Yes | 84¢ | 84¢ | $84 | $84 | +$0 (+0%) |
| Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on last trading day of IPO month? | No | 73¢ | 72¢ | $73 | $72 | −$0 (-1%) |
| Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | Yes | 37¢ | 36¢ | $37 | $36 | −$0 (-0%) |
| Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? | Yes | 70¢ | 38¢ | $7 | $4 | −$3 (-45%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will France win on 2026-06-16? | Jun 16 | $10 | +$5 | +48% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET | Jun 16 | $36 | +$7 | +19% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET | Jun 16 | $36 | −$7 | -21% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET | Jun 16 | $5 | −$5 | -97% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET | Jun 16 | $21 | −$3 | -15% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET | Jun 16 | $10 | −$10 | -97% |
| Dota 2: Mentality Monster vs InterActive Philippines (BO3) - EPL World | Jun 16 | $8 | −$8 | -100% |
| Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? | Jun 03 | $13 | +$9 | +69% |
| Will Trump visit China by May 15? | May 11 | $49 | −$47 | -96% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET | May 08 | $5 | +$4 | +86% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET | May 08 | $5 | −$5 | -90% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET | May 06 | $5 | +$3 | +63% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET | May 06 | $5 | −$5 | -100% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET | May 06 | $10 | −$10 | -100% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET | May 06 | $21 | −$20 | -96% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET | May 06 | $31 | +$52 | +166% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET | May 06 | $10 | +$10 | +97% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET | May 06 | $37 | −$29 | -80% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET | May 06 | $20 | +$34 | +167% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET | May 06 | $19 | −$1 | -4% |
| Will China GDP growth in Q1 2026 be between 4.5% and 5.0%? | Apr 16 | $37 | −$37 | -100% |
| DeepSeek V4 released by April 30? | Apr 14 | $35 | −$35 | -100% |