Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T05:39:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
79 0x79f1…3bfc crypto 27 markets active 1h ago coverage 64d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$84 (-12%) realized −$81 · open −$3
Gross ROI / mkt -22% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate36%8W / 14L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$27per market
Trades / day1.3pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$286now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$22
7 days−$22
14 days−$13
30 days−$13
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 39% +$14
other 20% −$32
world 17% $0
tech 10% $0
politics 7% −$47
economics 5% −$37
sports 3% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-29.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -38.5% -44.3% 29% 29% -25.3%
≤30d 8 -25.0% -32.2% 38% 38% -18.1%
≤90d 22 -22.3% -29.7% 36% 36% -31.5%
all 22 -22.3% -29.7% 36% 36% -31.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -29.7% 36% -31.5%
10% -36.5% 32% -38.1%
15% -42.6% 32% -44.0%
20% -48.2% 27% -49.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 42% · top 2 69% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -24% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -22% · $-wt -24% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -17% → late -28% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$15 vs −$16 · ×0.97 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.56 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

64d coverage
Net worth$286
Realized−$81
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses8 / 14
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions5
Markets (closed)22 / 27
History coverage64d
Avg bet$27
Trades / day1.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 22 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 17? No 88¢ 89¢ $88 $89 +$1 (+1%)
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Yes 84¢ 84¢ $84 $84 +$0 (+0%)
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on last trading day of IPO month? No 73¢ 72¢ $73 $72 −$0 (-1%)
Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Yes 37¢ 36¢ $37 $36 −$0 (-0%)
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Yes 70¢ 38¢ $7 $4 −$3 (-45%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $10 +$5 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 16 $36 +$7 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 16 $36 −$7 -21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 16 $21 −$3 -15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -97%
Dota 2: Mentality Monster vs InterActive Philippines (BO3) - EPL World Jun 16 $8 −$8 -100%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 03 $13 +$9 +69%
Will Trump visit China by May 15? May 11 $49 −$47 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET May 08 $5 +$4 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET May 08 $5 −$5 -90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET May 06 $5 +$3 +63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET May 06 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET May 06 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET May 06 $21 −$20 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET May 06 $31 +$52 +166%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET May 06 $10 +$10 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET May 06 $37 −$29 -80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET May 06 $20 +$34 +167%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET May 06 $19 −$1 -4%
Will China GDP growth in Q1 2026 be between 4.5% and 5.0%? Apr 16 $37 −$37 -100%
DeepSeek V4 released by April 30? Apr 14 $35 −$35 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 17? BUY No 88¢ $88 1h
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on BUY No 73¢ $74 4h
Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 37¢ $37 4h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 70¢ $7 4h
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY Yes 84¢ $53 20h
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY Yes 84¢ $5 20h
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY Yes 84¢ $14 20h
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY Yes 84¢ $12 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET BUY Up 74¢ $25 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET SELL Down 37¢ $5 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET BUY Down 36¢ $5 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET SELL Up 42¢ $4 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $5 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET SELL Up $0 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET SELL Down 97¢ $28 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Down 87¢ $25 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $5 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $5 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $5 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET BUY Down 91¢ $5 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET BUY Down 82¢ $5 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET SELL Up 23¢ $6 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET BUY Up 35¢ $5 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $5 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $5 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $5 22h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $10 24h
Dota 2: Mentality Monster vs InterActive Philippines (BO3) - EPL World BUY Mentality Monster 79¢ $8 24h
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 36¢ $21 13d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 20¢ $13 25d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $285.99 · official $285.99 (match) · 92 history records