Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T08:58:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
79 0x79f1…107c other 105 markets active 19h ago coverage 90d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$44 (-1%) realized −$44 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate5%5W / 98L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$45per market
Trades / day3.0pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit50%portable
Net worth$23now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 62% −$8
politics 16% −$1
sports 8% −$35
economics 5% $0
world 3% $0
tech 2% $0
finance 2% $0
crypto 1% $0
culture 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-15.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 13 -0.1% -9.6% 15% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 102 -6.9% -15.7% 5% 2% -10.4%
all 103 -6.8% -15.7% 5% 2% -10.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.7% 2% -10.4%
10% -23.7% 2% -19.0%
15% -31.1% 2% -26.8%
20% -37.9% 1% -34.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 61% · top 2 99% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
60% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -14% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$1 · ×3.4 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.17 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

90d coverage
Net worth$23
Realized−$44
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)5%
Wins / losses5 / 98
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)103 / 105
History coverage90d
Avg bet$45
Trades / day3.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit50%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 103 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ethereum reach $3,000 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $12 $12 −$0 (-0%)
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 meeting? No 100¢ 100¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 16 $8 $0 -0%
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 12 $63 $0 -0%
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 11 $7 $0 -0%
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 10 $7 $0 -0%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 09 $19 $0 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 03 $10 $0 -0%
Will Juan Branco win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 02 $10 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in May? Jun 02 $5 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $3.00 in May? Jun 02 $18 $0 +0%
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 30 $10 $0 -0%
Will Katie Porter win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 29 $10 $0 -0%
Will Kamala Harris win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 24 $10 $0 -0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 23 $10 $0 -0%
Will Vladimir Putin win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? May 17 $43 $0 -0%
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? May 17 $41 $0 -0%
Will Gideon Sa’ar be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 16 $44 $0 -0%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 16 $44 $0 -0%
Will Eleni Kounalakis win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 14 $41 $0 -0%
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 14 $140 $0 -0%
Will Amir Ohana be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 13 $44 $0 -0%
Will Stephen Cloobeck win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 11 $43 $0 -0%
Will Betty Yee win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 10 $44 $0 -0%
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 09 $43 $0 -0%
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 09 $41 $0 -0%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 May 08 $109 $0 -0%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 07 $43 $0 -0%
Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair? May 05 $82 $0 -0%
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 03 $41 $0 -0%
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 03 $86 $0 -0%
Will Alex Padilla win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 02 $45 $0 -0%
Will Armenia win Eurovision 2026? May 01 $62 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 in April? May 01 $9 $0 +0%
Will Ayelet Shaked be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Apr 28 $40 $0 -0%
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 27 $41 $0 -0%
Will Ahn Cheol-soo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 19 $67 $0 -0%
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 18 $86 $0 -0%
Will the Atlanta Hawks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 18 $45 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 16 $60 $0 -0%
Will Norway win Eurovision 2026? Apr 16 $86 $0 -0%
Will Han Dong-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 16 $45 $0 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 me Apr 16 $44 $0 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 15 $151 $0 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 15 $69 $0 -0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $20 in April? Apr 15 $45 $0 -0%
Will Germany win Eurovision 2026? Apr 14 $42 $0 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 14 $92 $0 -0%
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 13 $78 $0 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 13 $108 $0 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 12 $94 $0 -0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 12 $44 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $8 19h
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $8 23h
Will Ethereum reach $3,000 in June? BUY No 100¢ $12 3d
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $10 5d
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $10 5d
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $7 6d
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $7 6d
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $7 6d
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $7 6d
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $9 7d
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $9 8d
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $10 12d
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $10 13d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $10 13d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $10 13d
Will Juan Branco win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $10 14d
Will Juan Branco win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $10 14d
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $10 17d
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $10 17d
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $10 17d
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $10 18d
Will Katie Porter win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $10 18d
Will Katie Porter win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $10 18d
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $5 21d
Will Kamala Harris win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $10 23d
Will Kamala Harris win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $10 23d
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $10 24d
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $10 24d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me BUY No 100¢ $10 25d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me SELL No 100¢ $10 26d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $22.54 · official $22.54 (match) · 281 history records