Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T16:51:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
79 0x79f0…ed2b crypto 58 markets active 2h ago coverage 525d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$10 (-0%) realized −$10 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate77%44W / 13L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$119per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit81%portable
Net worth$68now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 77% −$5
crypto 13% +$2
other 7% +$3
tech 1% $0
politics 1% $0
economics 1% $0
world 0% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 2 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 7 +0.2% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
all 57 -1.6% -10.9% 77% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.9% 0% -9.7%
10% -19.5% 0% -18.3%
15% -27.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -34.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 58% · top 2 67% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.12 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.41 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

525d coverage
Net worth$68
Realized−$10
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)77%
Wins / losses44 / 13
Open positions1
Markets (closed)57 / 58
History coverage525d
Avg bet$119
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 57 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Solana reach $100 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $68 $68 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Dogecoin reach $0.15 in May? Jun 03 $27 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 in May? Jun 03 $55 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in April? May 05 $27 $0 +0%
Will BNB reach $800 in April? May 05 $54 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,200 in March? Apr 02 $8 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $2.40 in March? Apr 02 $11 $0 +0%
Will Dogecoin dip to $0.05 in March? Apr 02 $64 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $180 in February? Mar 03 $16 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $200 in February? Mar 03 $50 $0 +0%
Will Hyperliquid hit $46 in January? Feb 02 $13 $0 +0%
Will Hyperliquid hit $42 in January? Feb 02 $59 +$4 +7%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 by December 31, 2025? Jan 01 $7 $0 +0%
Will OpenAI have the top AI model on December 31? Jan 01 $26 $0 +0%
Will Hyperliquid hit $100 in 2025? Jan 01 $47 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $3.60 in November? Dec 03 $30 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $260 in November? Dec 03 $45 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $3.80 in October? Nov 04 $21 $0 +0%
Ethereum all time high by October 31? Nov 04 $38 +$1 +2%
Will Solana dip to $130 in September? Oct 03 $13 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $90K in September? Oct 03 $24 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $4.50 in September? Oct 03 $35 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $155 in August? Sep 01 $9 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $3200 in August? Sep 01 $26 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $3000 in August? Sep 01 $39 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $2200 in July? Aug 04 $23 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $140K in July? Aug 04 $48 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60K in June? Jul 03 $28 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $2.8 in June? Jul 03 $39 $0 +0%
Trump x Ukraine mineral deal signed before May? Jun 09 $10 −$10 -100%
Will XRP reach $3.50 in May? Jun 09 $7 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $300 in May? Jun 09 $10 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60k in April? May 05 $2 $0 +0%
Will XRP dip to $1.50 in April? May 05 $5 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1200 in April? May 05 $12 $0 +0%
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ap May 05 $19 $0 +1%
Will Trump remove tariff on Mexico before May? May 05 $28 $0 +0%
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2025 National League Championship? Apr 19 $66 $0 -0%
Will Kyle Connor win the Hart Trophy? Apr 18 $57 $0 -0%
Will the next Government of Canada be a Conservative majority? Apr 18 $55 $0 -1%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after June 2025 meeting? Apr 17 $57 $0 -0%
Will Armenia win Eurovision 2025? Apr 14 $68 $0 -0%
Solana all time high by March 31? Apr 03 $11 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $3.10 in March? Apr 03 $17 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum hit $2,600.00 again by March 31? Apr 03 $23 $0 +0%
Manchester City wins the Premier League? Mar 22 $5,308 −$5 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 by February 28, 2025? Mar 05 $11 $0 +2%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Febru Mar 05 $16 $0 +1%
Will XRP reach $3.40 by February 28 2025? Mar 05 $16 $0 +0%
Will Latvia win Eurovision 2025? Feb 23 $20 $0 -0%
Will Romuald Starosielec be the next President of Poland? Feb 22 $14 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Solana reach $100 in June? BUY No 100¢ $68 1h
Will Dogecoin reach $0.15 in May? BUY No 100¢ $27 29d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 in May? BUY No 100¢ $55 30d
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in April? BUY No 100¢ $27 60d
Will BNB reach $800 in April? BUY No 100¢ $54 62d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,200 in March? BUY No 100¢ $8 90d
Will XRP reach $2.40 in March? BUY No 100¢ $11 91d
Will Dogecoin dip to $0.05 in March? BUY No 100¢ $64 92d
Will Solana reach $180 in February? BUY No 100¢ $16 122d
Will Solana reach $200 in February? BUY No 100¢ $50 122d
Will Hyperliquid hit $46 in January? BUY No 100¢ $13 149d
Will Hyperliquid hit $42 in January? BUY No 93¢ $59 150d
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 by December 31, 2025? BUY No 100¢ $7 181d
Will OpenAI have the top AI model on December 31? BUY No 100¢ $26 181d
Will Hyperliquid hit $100 in 2025? BUY No 100¢ $47 182d
Will XRP reach $3.60 in November? BUY No 100¢ $30 211d
Will Solana reach $260 in November? BUY No 100¢ $45 211d
Will XRP reach $3.80 in October? BUY No 100¢ $21 240d
Ethereum all time high by October 31? BUY No 98¢ $38 241d
Will Solana dip to $130 in September? BUY No 100¢ $13 271d
Will Bitcoin dip to $90K in September? BUY No 100¢ $24 272d
Will XRP reach $4.50 in September? BUY No 100¢ $35 273d
Will Solana dip to $155 in August? BUY No 100¢ $9 300d
Will Ethereum dip to $3200 in August? BUY No 100¢ $26 301d
Will Ethereum dip to $3000 in August? BUY No 100¢ $39 301d
Will Ethereum dip to $2200 in July? BUY No 100¢ $23 334d
Will Bitcoin reach $140K in July? BUY No 99¢ $48 334d
Will XRP reach $2.8 in June? BUY No 100¢ $39 362d
Will Bitcoin dip to $60K in June? BUY No 100¢ $28 366d
Will XRP reach $3.50 in May? BUY No 100¢ $7 393d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $68.18 · official $68.18 (match) · 119 history records