Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T13:44:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0

score

79 0x79ee…57e7 crypto 5 markets active 1h ago coverage 38d

RISKYcopy with care crypto specialist⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage

Total PnL +$33 (+15%) realized −$15 · open +$48

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -71% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -73% what you keep after slip

Net edge-73%after slip

Net WR25%break-even

Win rate25%1W / 3L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$43per market

Trades / day0.2pace

Kalshi-fit80%portable

Net worth$223now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 38d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +25%

net ROI/market (all)-73.4%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	no closed markets
≤30d	no closed markets
≤90d	4	-70.6%	-73.4%	25%	25%	-66.0%
all	4	-70.6%	-73.4%	25%	25%	-66.0%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover0.2 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-73.4%	25%	-66.0%
10%	-75.9%	0%	-69.3%
15%	-78.3%	0%	-72.3%
20%	-80.4%	0%	-75.0%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -62% too few recent

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -71% · $-wt -62% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions

Win / loss size

+$2 vs −$7 · ×0.25 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×0.08 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

38d coverage

Net worth$223

Realized−$15

Unrealized+$48

Win rate (resolved)25%

Wins / losses1 / 3

Open positions1

Markets (closed)4 / 5

History coverage38d

Avg bet$43

Trades / day0.2

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 4 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	2¢	3¢	$175	$223	+$48 (+28%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET	May 12	$5	−$5	-94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET	May 11	$10	+$2	+18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET	May 11	$7	−$7	-96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET	May 11	$10	−$10	-97%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	3¢	$73	1h
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	2¢	$15	46h
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	2¢	$15	2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET	BUY Up	1¢	$5	38d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET	BUY Up	40¢	$7	38d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET	SELL Up	57¢	$7	38d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET	BUY Up	56¢	$10	38d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET	BUY Up	52¢	$10	38d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	2¢	$77	38d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $222.95 · official $222.95 (match) · 48 history records