Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T15:35:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.5

score

79 0x79ed…1b53 other 8 markets active 2h ago coverage 2d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable! high turnover

Total PnL +$952 (+140%) realized +$951 · open +$1

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +529% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +425% what you keep after slip

Net edge+425%after slip

Net WR43%break-even

Win rate43%3W / 4L

Drawdown9%max

Avg bet$85per market

Trades / day8.8pace

Kalshi-fit0%portable

Net worth$31now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +43%

net ROI/market (all)+468.9%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	7	+528.7%	+468.9%	43%	43%	+95.1%
≤30d	7	+528.7%	+468.9%	43%	43%	+95.1%
≤90d	7	+528.7%	+468.9%	43%	43%	+95.1%
all	7	+528.7%	+468.9%	43%	43%	+95.1%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover8.8 tr/day

realistic slip~9%

edge survives to20%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+468.9%	43%	+95.1%
10%	+414.4%	43%	+76.5%
15%	+364.7%	43%	+59.4%
20%	+319.2%	29%	+43.8%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 69% · top 2 86% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +200% too few recent

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +529% · $-wt +200% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$342 vs −$20 · ×16.81 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×12.61 per $1 lost it wins $12.61

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage

Net worth$31

Realized+$951

Unrealized+$1

Win rate (resolved)43%

Wins / losses3 / 4

Open positions1

Markets (closed)7 / 8

History coverage2d

Avg bet$85

Trades / day8.8

Drawdown9%

Kalshi-fit0%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 7 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 Uzbekistan?	Yes	15¢	16¢	$30	$31	+$1 (+3%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22?	Jun 22	$354	+$177	+50%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21?	Jun 22	$182	+$139	+76%
Exact Score: Uruguay 2 - 1 Cabo Verde?	Jun 22	$15	−$11	-68%
Exact Score: Uruguay 0 - 1 Cabo Verde?	Jun 22	$14	−$14	-100%
Exact Score: Uruguay 1 - 0 Cabo Verde?	Jun 22	$15	−$15	-100%
Exact Score: Uruguay 1 - 1 Cabo Verde?	Jun 22	$51	−$41	-80%
Exact Score: Uruguay 2 - 2 Cabo Verde?	Jun 22	$20	+$710	+3633%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 Uzbekistan?	BUY Yes	15¢	$30	1h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21?	BUY Yes	0¢	$3	36h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22?	BUY Yes	66¢	$354	37h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21?	SELL Yes	13¢	$68	37h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21?	SELL Yes	50¢	$243	37h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21?	BUY Yes	17¢	$179	38h
Exact Score: Uruguay 2 - 2 Cabo Verde?	SELL Yes	100¢	$679	39h
Exact Score: Uruguay 2 - 2 Cabo Verde?	SELL Yes	100¢	$51	39h
Exact Score: Uruguay 1 - 0 Cabo Verde?	BUY Yes	18¢	$15	42h
Exact Score: Uruguay 2 - 1 Cabo Verde?	SELL Yes	9¢	$5	42h
Exact Score: Uruguay 1 - 1 Cabo Verde?	SELL Yes	9¢	$10	42h
Exact Score: Uruguay 2 - 2 Cabo Verde?	BUY Yes	3¢	$20	42h
Exact Score: Uruguay 0 - 1 Cabo Verde?	BUY Yes	5¢	$14	42h
Exact Score: Uruguay 2 - 1 Cabo Verde?	BUY Yes	10¢	$15	42h
Exact Score: Uruguay 1 - 1 Cabo Verde?	BUY Yes	10¢	$51	42h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $30.57 · official $30.57 (match) · 20 history records