Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T11:26:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
79 0x79e9…80b1 sports 330 markets active 1h ago coverage 149d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$540 (-7%) realized −$541 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -17% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR28%break-even
Win rate31%101W / 228L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$24per market
Trades / day6.2pace
Fees−$78est.
Kalshi-fit58%portable
Net worth$2now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$30
7 days−$114
14 days−$95
30 days−$210
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 79% −$462
other 21% −$99
culture 0% −$9
finance 0% −$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +28%
net ROI/market (all)-25.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 28 -29.2% -35.9% 43% 29% -32.2%
≤30d 98 -10.3% -18.9% 49% 41% -16.0%
≤90d 234 -16.7% -24.7% 29% 25% -16.6%
all 329 -17.4% -25.3% 31% 28% -16.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -25.3% 28% -16.5%
10% -32.4% 22% -24.5%
15% -39.0% 20% -31.8%
20% -44.9% 17% -38.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -17% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -16% → late -19% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$31 vs −$17 · ×1.9 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.85 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

149d coverage
Net worth$2
Realized−$541
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)31%
Wins / losses101 / 228
Est. fees paid−$78
Open positions1
Markets (closed)329 / 330
History coverage149d
Avg bet$24
Trades / day6.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit58%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 329 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Targu Mures: Felix Balshaw vs Andrej Nedic Felix Balshaw 49¢ 100¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+104%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
ITF Zagreb: Kalin Ivanovski vs Javier Barranco Cosano Jun 26 $7 −$6 -98%
Bad Homburg Open: Emma Navarro vs Gabriela Ruse Jun 25 $22 −$22 -100%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Caty McNally vs Petra Marcinko Jun 25 $24 +$2 +9%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Tatjana Maria vs Tereza Valentova Jun 25 $23 +$1 +4%
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Polina Kudermetova vs Alina Charaeva Jun 25 $14 +$2 +12%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Mackenzie McDonald vs Christopher O'Conn Jun 25 $9 −$9 -100%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Dane Sweeny vs Tomas Barrios Jun 25 $32 +$11 +35%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Jerome Kym vs August Holmgren Jun 24 $7 −$7 -100%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Soon-Woo Kwon vs Arthur Gea Jun 24 $7 −$7 -100%
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Rebecca Sramkova vs Teodora Kostovic Jun 24 $14 +$1 +5%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Vilius Gaubas vs Henry Searle Jun 24 $16 $0 +1%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Gabriel Diallo vs Tomas Etcheverry Jun 24 $24 +$7 +28%
Bad Homburg Open: Iga Swiatek vs Emma Navarro Jun 24 $41 $0 -1%
Bad Homburg Open: Anna Kalinskaya vs Gabriela Ruse Jun 24 $10 −$10 -100%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Yunchaokete Bu vs Clement Tabur Jun 24 $17 +$9 +49%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Clement Chidekh vs Aziz Dougaz Jun 22 $12 −$12 -100%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Daria Snigur vs Anhelina Kalinina Jun 22 $4 −$4 -100%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Gabriel Diallo vs Terence Atmane Jun 22 $17 −$17 -100%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Oliver Tarvet vs Alex Bolt Jun 22 $9 −$9 -100%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Francisco Comesana vs Alejandro Moro Can Jun 22 $18 −$18 -100%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Antonia Ruzic vs Petra Marcinko Jun 22 $14 −$8 -56%
Grass Court Championships: Jessica Pegula vs Linda Noskova Jun 21 $12 +$14 +118%
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Marcos Giron vs Jan Choinski Jun 21 $12 +$2 +18%
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: James Duckworth vs Giles Hussey Jun 21 $14 −$14 -100%
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Marcos Giron vs Charles Broom Jun 20 $13 +$25 +184%
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Petra Marcinko vs Simona Waltert Jun 20 $7 +$13 +177%
ITF Tulsa: Jeffrey John Wolf vs Christian Langmo Jun 19 $31 −$31 -100%
Halle Open: Frances Tiafoe vs Felix Auger-Aliassime Jun 19 $26 −$26 -100%
Nottingham 2: Billy Harris vs Otto Virtanen Jun 19 $6 −$6 -100%
HSBC Championships: Rinky Hijikata vs Jiri Lehecka Jun 19 $15 −$15 -100%
ITF Zhengzhou: Rina Saigo vs Tiana Tian Deng Jun 17 $11 +$8 +72%
HSBC Championships: Arthur Rinderknech vs Hamad Medjedovic Jun 16 $16 −$16 -100%
Nottingham 2: Jaime Faria vs Zhizhen Zhang Jun 16 $18 −$18 -100%
Asuncion 2: Santiago De La Fuente vs Paulo Dos Santos Jun 16 $19 −$2 -9%
Halle Open: Karen Khachanov vs Ethan Quinn Jun 16 $14 −$14 -100%
HSBC Championships: Jakub Mensik vs Adrian Mannarino Jun 16 $21 +$51 +246%
Parma: Alvaro Guillen Meza vs Federico Bondioli Jun 16 $16 +$3 +16%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 16 $33 $0 -0%
Royan: Carlos Sanchez Jover vs Alejandro Moro Canas Jun 16 $28 −$28 -100%
Parma: Franco Agamenone vs Stefano Napolitano Jun 15 $8 +$18 +216%
Nottingham 2: Darwin Blanch vs Zhizhen Zhang Jun 15 $13 −$13 -100%
Brescia: Ekaterine Gorgodze vs Nuria Brancaccio Jun 15 $14 −$14 -100%
HSBC Championships: Jack Pinnington Jones vs Denis Shapovalov Jun 15 $15 −$2 -12%
Grass Court Championships: Nikola Bartunkova vs Diana Shnaider Jun 15 $35 +$23 +66%
T20 Series West Indies vs Sri lanka: West Indies vs Sri Lanka Jun 15 $10 $0 +4%
Nottingham 2: Shintaro Mochizuki vs Michael Zheng Jun 14 $19 $0 +2%
Libema Open: Kamil Majchrzak vs Alex de Minaur Jun 14 $12 +$2 +19%
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia Jun 14 $10 +$2 +15%
Lyon: Daniel Galan vs Felix Balshaw Jun 13 $10 +$2 +20%
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Dino Prizmic vs Rinky Hijikata Jun 13 $24 +$33 +140%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
ITF Zagreb: Kalin Ivanovski vs Javier Barranco Cosano BUY Javier Barranco Cosano 21¢ $7 42m
Targu Mures: Felix Balshaw vs Andrej Nedic SELL Felix Balshaw 79¢ $39 1h
Targu Mures: Felix Balshaw vs Andrej Nedic BUY Felix Balshaw 49¢ $26 1h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Caty McNally vs Petra Marcinko SELL Caty McNally 44¢ $26 18h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Caty McNally vs Petra Marcinko BUY Caty McNally 39¢ $24 18h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Tatjana Maria vs Tereza Valentova SELL Tereza Valentova 26¢ $24 19h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Tatjana Maria vs Tereza Valentova BUY Tereza Valentova 24¢ $23 20h
Bad Homburg Open: Emma Navarro vs Gabriela Ruse BUY Emma Navarro 23¢ $7 20h
Bad Homburg Open: Emma Navarro vs Gabriela Ruse BUY Emma Navarro 29¢ $15 20h
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Polina Kudermetova vs Alina Charaeva SELL Polina Kudermetova 39¢ $16 22h
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Polina Kudermetova vs Alina Charaeva BUY Polina Kudermetova 34¢ $10 22h
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Polina Kudermetova vs Alina Charaeva BUY Polina Kudermetova 34¢ $3 22h
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Dane Sweeny vs Tomas Barrios SELL Dane Sweeny 77¢ $43 22h
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Dane Sweeny vs Tomas Barrios BUY Dane Sweeny 56¢ $32 22h
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Mackenzie McDonald vs Christopher O'Conn BUY Christopher OConnell 30¢ $8 24h
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Mackenzie McDonald vs Christopher O'Conn BUY Christopher OConnell 30¢ $2 24h
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Rebecca Sramkova vs Teodora Kostovic SELL Rebecca Sramkova 36¢ $14 40h
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Rebecca Sramkova vs Teodora Kostovic BUY Rebecca Sramkova 33¢ $14 40h
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Soon-Woo Kwon vs Arthur Gea BUY Arthur Gea 24¢ $7 41h
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Vilius Gaubas vs Henry Searle SELL Henry Searle 43¢ $17 42h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Gabriel Diallo vs Tomas Etcheverry SELL Gabriel Diallo 61¢ $31 42h
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Vilius Gaubas vs Henry Searle BUY Henry Searle 41¢ $16 42h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Gabriel Diallo vs Tomas Etcheverry BUY Gabriel Diallo 40¢ $4 43h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Gabriel Diallo vs Tomas Etcheverry BUY Gabriel Diallo 48¢ $20 43h
Bad Homburg Open: Iga Swiatek vs Emma Navarro SELL Iga Swiatek 36¢ $41 44h
Bad Homburg Open: Iga Swiatek vs Emma Navarro BUY Iga Swiatek 35¢ $30 44h
Bad Homburg Open: Iga Swiatek vs Emma Navarro BUY Iga Swiatek 35¢ $11 44h
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Jerome Kym vs August Holmgren BUY August Holmgren 23¢ $7 44h
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Yunchaokete Bu vs Clement Tabur SELL Clement Tabur 37¢ $26 46h
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Yunchaokete Bu vs Clement Tabur BUY Clement Tabur 25¢ $13 46h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.70 · official $1.70 (match) · 1197 history records