Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T14:52:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
79 0x79e7…5999 other 27 markets active 1h ago coverage 7d
RISKYcopy with care Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$72 (+20%) realized +$72 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +52% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +32% what you keep after slip
Net edge+32%after slip
Net WR81%break-even
Win rate88%14W / 2L
Drawdown7%max
Avg bet$13per market
Trades / day4.0pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit56%portable
Net worth$58now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$32
7 days+$90
14 days+$87
30 days+$87
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 55% +$61
other 42% +$24
crypto 4% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +81%
net ROI/market (all)+37.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 +62.1% +46.7% 93% 87% +25.1%
≤30d 16 +52.0% +37.5% 88% 81% +23.7%
≤90d 16 +52.0% +37.5% 88% 81% +23.7%
all 16 +52.0% +37.5% 88% 81% +23.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +37.5% 81% +23.7%
10% +24.3% 75% +11.9%
15% +12.3% 56% +1.1%
20% +1.3% 25% -8.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 34% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +37% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +52% · $-wt +37% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +25% → late +79% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$4 · ×1.55 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×10.83 per $1 lost it wins $10.83
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

7d coverage
Net worth$58
Realized+$72
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)88%
Wins / losses14 / 2
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions2
Markets (closed)16 / 27
History coverage7d
Avg bet$13
Trades / day4.0
Drawdown7%
Kalshi-fit56%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 16 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Yes 58¢ 57¢ $38 $38 −$0 (-1%)
Senegal vs. Iraq: O/U 2.5 Over 65¢ 64¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) Jun 26 $46 +$16 +34%
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) Jun 25 $61 +$16 +27%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $20 +$11 +55%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $23 +$11 +46%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 23 $30 +$13 +44%
France vs. Iraq: O/U 2.5 AND Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? AND Will Jun 23 $2 +$9 +495%
France vs. Iraq: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $20 +$7 +34%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $6 −$6 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 21 $1 $0 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 21 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 21 $1 $0 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 21 $1 $0 +36%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 1.5 AND Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06- Jun 21 $5 +$2 +48%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-1 Jun 20 $7 +$5 +77%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $5 +$4 +73%
Spread: Brazil (-3.5) Jun 19 $3 −$3 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? AND Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26? AND BUY 9¢ $1 1h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 58¢ $38 1h
Senegal vs. Iraq: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 65¢ $20 1h
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) AND Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? AND Will BUY 21¢ $2 25h
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) BUY Netherlands 74¢ $46 25h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? AND Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on BUY 28¢ $2 2d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? AND Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06- BUY 46¢ $24 2d
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) SELL Morocco 62¢ $29 2d
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) BUY Morocco 63¢ $30 2d
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) BUY Morocco 63¢ $30 2d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 64¢ $20 2d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 68¢ $23 2d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? AND Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? A BUY 31¢ $8 2d
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 69¢ $30 2d
France vs. Iraq: O/U 2.5 AND Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? AND Will BUY 16¢ $2 4d
France vs. Iraq: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 74¢ $20 4d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $6 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET BUY Up 69¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Up 84¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Up 72¢ $1 5d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? AND Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? AND Wi BUY 26¢ $2 5d
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 1.5 AND Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06- BUY 67¢ $5 6d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? AND Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY 56¢ $11 6d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AND Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? AND BUY 22¢ $5 6d
Spread: Brazil (-3.5) BUY Brazil 32¢ $3 7d
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: 2nd Half O/U 0.5 AND Türkiye vs. Paraguay: 1st H BUY 62¢ $7 7d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 57¢ $5 7d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-1 BUY 56¢ $7 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $57.52 · official $58.49 (match) · 47 history records