Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T17:07:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
79 0x79e6…85df other 43 markets active 8h ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable Fresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ bot/MM pace (57 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$62 (+54%) realized +$70 · open −$8
Gross ROI / mkt +95% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +50% what you keep after slip
Net edge+50%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate47%9W / 10L
Drawdown9%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day57.0pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit23%portable
Net worth$47now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 74% +$46
sports 22% +$16
world 4% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (57 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)+76.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 19 +94.6% +76.0% 47% 47% +98.0%
≤30d 19 +94.6% +76.0% 47% 47% +98.0%
≤90d 19 +94.6% +76.0% 47% 47% +98.0%
all 19 +94.6% +76.0% 47% 47% +98.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover57.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +76.0% 47% +98.0%
10% ← realistic here +59.2% 47% +79.0%
15% +43.8% 47% +61.7%
20% +29.7% 47% +45.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 38% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +119% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +95% · $-wt +119% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -56% → late +230% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$1 · ×6.53 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×5.87 per $1 lost it wins $5.87
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$47
Realized+$70
Unrealized−$8
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses9 / 10
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions24
Markets (closed)19 / 43
History coverage1d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day57.0
Drawdown9%
Kalshi-fit23%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 24 History 19 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Yes 24¢ 24¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-2%)
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Yes 29¢ 28¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-5%)
Pedri: 1+ assists Yes 27¢ 60¢ $2 $4 +$2 (+120%)
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Yes 22¢ 18¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-16%)
Mikel Oyarzabal: 1+ goals Yes 61¢ 42¢ $4 $3 −$1 (-31%)
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 2 Egypt? Yes $3 $3 −$1 (-17%)
Exact Score: Belgium 0 - 0 Egypt? Yes $2 $2 −$0 (-6%)
Exact Score: Belgium 1 - 1 Egypt? Yes 13¢ 12¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-12%)
Lamine Yamal: 1+ assists Yes 39¢ 32¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-18%)
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 0 Cabo Verde? Yes 17¢ 13¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-24%)
Lamine Yamal: 1+ goals Yes 45¢ 34¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-24%)
Federico Valverde: 1+ goals Yes 25¢ 24¢ $2 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Exact Score: IR Iran 1 - 1 New Zealand? Yes 15¢ 14¢ $2 $1 −$0 (-3%)
Darwin Núñez: 1+ goals Yes 42¢ 40¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-4%)
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 0 - 2 Uruguay? Yes 17¢ 16¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-6%)
Exact Score: IR Iran 0 - 0 New Zealand? Yes 12¢ 11¢ $2 $1 −$0 (-8%)
Lamine Yamal: 2+ goals Yes 19¢ 12¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-37%)
Romelu Lukaku: 4+ shots Yes 55¢ 22¢ $3 $1 −$2 (-59%)
Federico Valverde: 1+ assists Yes 23¢ 18¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-22%)
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 0 - 3 Uruguay? Yes 10¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+6%)
Rodri: 1+ assists Yes 26¢ 11¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-58%)
Exact Score: IR Iran 2 - 2 New Zealand? Yes $1 $1 −$0 (-37%)
Exact Score: Belgium 3 - 3 Egypt? Yes $1 $1 −$0 (-31%)
Mikel Oyarzabal: 2+ goals Yes 27¢ 11¢ $1 $1 −$1 (-59%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 9 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Justin Gaethje win by KO or TKO? Jun 15 $3 +$17 +503%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $1 +$4 +360%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $5 +$5 +103%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $17 +$15 +88%
Viktor Gyökeres: 1+ goals Jun 15 $2 +$3 +139%
Exact Score: Sweden 3 - 0 Tunisia? Jun 15 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Derrick Lewis win by KO or TKO? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 1 - 0 Ecuador? Jun 15 $1 +$7 +642%
Amad Diallo: 1+ goals Jun 15 $3 +$11 +441%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $5 +$11 +223%
Exact Score: Sweden 1 - 0 Tunisia? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -98%
Exact Score: Sweden 2 - 0 Tunisia? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 2 - 0 Ecuador? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 2 - 1 Ecuador? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Amad Diallo: 1+ assists Jun 14 $2 −$1 -98%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $5 +$11 +206%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $2 $0 -9%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Côte d'Ivoire O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $2 −$1 -98%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Côte d'Ivoire O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $2 −$2 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: IR Iran 2 - 2 New Zealand? BUY Yes $1 7h
Exact Score: IR Iran 1 - 1 New Zealand? BUY Yes 15¢ $2 7h
Exact Score: IR Iran 0 - 0 New Zealand? BUY Yes 12¢ $2 7h
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 0 - 2 Uruguay? BUY Yes 17¢ $2 7h
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 0 - 3 Uruguay? BUY Yes $1 7h
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 2 Egypt? BUY Yes $2 9h
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 0 Cabo Verde? BUY Yes 17¢ $2 9h
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $5 9h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 22¢ $5 9h
Darwin Núñez: 1+ goals BUY Yes 42¢ $2 9h
Federico Valverde: 1+ goals BUY Yes 25¢ $2 9h
Federico Valverde: 1+ assists BUY Yes 23¢ $2 9h
Romelu Lukaku: 4+ shots BUY Yes 55¢ $3 9h
Exact Score: Belgium 3 - 3 Egypt? BUY Yes $1 9h
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 2 Egypt? BUY Yes $2 9h
Exact Score: Belgium 0 - 0 Egypt? BUY Yes $2 9h
Exact Score: Belgium 1 - 1 Egypt? BUY Yes 13¢ $2 9h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $5 9h
Lamine Yamal: 1+ assists BUY Yes 39¢ $2 9h
Rodri: 1+ assists BUY Yes 26¢ $2 11h
Pedri: 1+ assists BUY Yes 27¢ $2 11h
Mikel Oyarzabal: 2+ goals BUY Yes 27¢ $2 11h
Mikel Oyarzabal: 1+ goals BUY Yes 61¢ $4 11h
Lamine Yamal: 1+ goals BUY Yes 45¢ $2 11h
Lamine Yamal: 2+ goals BUY Yes 19¢ $2 11h
Will Justin Gaethje win by KO or TKO? SELL Yes 99¢ $20 11h
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca SELL Justin Gaethje 99¢ $5 11h
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Justin Gaethje 21¢ $1 12h
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) SELL Ciryl Gane 99¢ $10 13h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 100¢ $32 13h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $46.80 · official $46.81 (match) · 57 history records