Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T04:59:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
79 0x79e2…325b crypto 168 markets active 0h ago coverage 31d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$4 (+1%) realized +$4 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate50%84W / 84L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day11.0pace
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days−$9
30 days−$12
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 99% −$10
other 1% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-13.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 29 +0.4% -9.2% 59% 24% -9.2%
≤30d 166 -4.1% -13.2% 50% 28% -13.5%
≤90d 168 -4.1% -13.2% 50% 29% -13.5%
all 168 -4.1% -13.2% 50% 29% -13.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.2% 29% -13.5%
10% -21.5% 11% -21.8%
15% -29.1% 4% -29.3%
20% -36.0% 2% -36.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
40% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -9% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.65 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.65 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

31d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$4
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses84 / 84
Open positions0
Markets (closed)168 / 168
History coverage31d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day11.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 168 Trades
no open positions (2 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 -17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 -25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$1 -39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 16 $2 +$1 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$1 -37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 06 $2 $0 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 06 $2 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 06 $2 $0 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 06 $2 $0 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 05 $2 $0 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 05 $2 $0 -15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 05 $2 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 05 $2 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 05 $2 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 05 $2 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 05 $2 $0 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 05 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 05 $1 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 05 $2 $0 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 05 $2 $0 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 04 $2 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 04 $2 $0 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 04 $2 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 04 $2 $0 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 04 $2 $0 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 04 $2 $0 -20%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET SELL Down 61¢ $2 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $2 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET SELL Up 71¢ $2 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $2 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET SELL Down 49¢ $1 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $2 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET SELL Up 67¢ $2 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET BUY Up 59¢ $2 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET SELL Down 56¢ $2 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $2 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET SELL Down 61¢ $2 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $2 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET SELL Up 43¢ $1 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $2 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET SELL Down 59¢ $2 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $2 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET SELL Up 37¢ $1 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $2 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET SELL Down 64¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET SELL Down 64¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET BUY Down 59¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET SELL Up 58¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET SELL Up 57¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET SELL Up 64¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET SELL Up 79¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $2 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 342 history records