Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T03:27:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
79 0x79e2…3ba7 crypto 13 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$89 (-6%) realized −$30 · open −$59
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate44%4W / 5L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$110per market
Trades / day20.0pace
Kalshi-fit54%portable
Net worth$567now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 81% −$405
crypto 19% −$33
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-15.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -6.8% -15.7% 44% 44% -66.5%
≤30d 9 -6.8% -15.7% 44% 44% -66.5%
≤90d 9 -6.8% -15.7% 44% 44% -66.5%
all 9 -6.8% -15.7% 44% 44% -66.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover20.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.7% 44% -66.5%
10% -23.8% 44% -69.7%
15% -31.1% 44% -72.6%
20% -37.9% 44% -75.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 34% · top 2 61% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -63% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -63% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$29 vs −$99 · ×0.3 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.24 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$567
Realized−$30
Unrealized−$59
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses4 / 5
Open positions4
Markets (closed)9 / 13
History coverage1d
Avg bet$110
Trades / day20.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit54%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 9 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Yes 62¢ 62¢ $295 $298 +$2 (+1%)
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Yes 55¢ 46¢ $150 $127 −$23 (-15%)
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-26? Yes 36¢ 36¢ $80 $79 −$1 (-1%)
Will Australia win on 2026-06-25? Yes 23¢ 14¢ $100 $63 −$37 (-37%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 26 $97 −$90 -92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 26 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 26 $33 −$30 -92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 26 $31 +$40 +130%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 26 $32 +$32 +98%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $293 −$293 -100%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $53 −$53 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 26 $26 +$27 +106%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 26 $17 +$18 +104%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET BUY Down 42¢ $97 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET BUY Up 8¢ $30 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Up 38¢ $33 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $71 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET BUY Up 36¢ $22 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET BUY Up 44¢ $9 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $64 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET BUY Up 44¢ $32 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET SELL Down 84¢ $35 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Down 36¢ $17 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $26 1h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 23¢ $106 1h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 36¢ $85 2h
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 62¢ $311 2h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 38¢ $82 3h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 55¢ $158 5h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 54¢ $139 5h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 55¢ $158 5h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 48¢ $211 5h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 36¢ $53 6h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $566.62 · official $566.62 (match) · 23 history records