Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T22:57:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
79 0x79e1…ecb4 sports 91 markets active 1h ago coverage 65d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$470 (-18%) realized −$383 · open −$87
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate42%37W / 51L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$28per market
Trades / day7.5pace
Fees−$30est.
Kalshi-fit84%portable
Net worth$208now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$872
7 days−$872
14 days−$872
30 days−$872
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 80% −$602
other 20% +$40
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-18.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 59 -64.6% -68.0% 15% 15% -52.3%
≤30d 59 -64.6% -68.0% 15% 15% -52.3%
≤90d 88 -9.9% -18.4% 42% 42% -28.6%
all 88 -9.9% -18.4% 42% 42% -28.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.4% 42% -28.6%
10% -26.3% 41% -35.5%
15% -33.4% 40% -41.7%
20% -39.9% 38% -47.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 39% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -21% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -21% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +34% → late -54% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
5.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$21 vs −$25 · ×0.86 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.62 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

65d coverage
Net worth$208
Realized−$383
Unrealized−$87
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses37 / 51
Est. fees paid−$30
Open positions3
Markets (closed)88 / 91
History coverage65d
Avg bet$28
Trades / day7.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit84%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 88 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? No 77¢ 66¢ $172 $149 −$23 (-14%)
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Yes 64¢ 26¢ $81 $32 −$49 (-60%)
HSBC Championships: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Corentin Moutet Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard 79¢ 52¢ $41 $27 −$14 (-35%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $32 −$14 -45%
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Jun 15 $162 +$25 +16%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $13 −$13 -99%
Nottingham 2: Coleman Wong vs Billy Harris Jun 15 $75 +$100 +134%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $140 +$205 +146%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Spread: Spain (-3.5) Jun 15 $39 −$27 -70%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $358 −$358 -100%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Dublin: Juan Pablo Ficovich vs Nicolas Mejia Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Nottingham Open: Talia Gibson vs Francesca Jones Jun 15 $8 +$4 +46%
Nottingham 2: Luca Nardi vs Remy Bertola Jun 15 $3 $0 -6%
Nottingham Open: Maya Joint vs Yulia Starodubtseva Jun 15 $2 +$1 +70%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $6 −$2 -40%
Grass Court Championships: Nikola Bartunkova vs Diana Shnaider Jun 15 $15 +$11 +73%
HSBC Championships: Tommy Paul vs Zachary Svajda Jun 15 $6 −$2 -37%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $9 −$3 -40%
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Magdalena Frech vs Shuai Zha Jun 15 $3 −$2 -51%
Halle Open: Terence Atmane vs Martin Landaluce Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Nottingham Open: Himeno Sakatsume vs Jessica Bouzas Maneiro Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Halle Open: Nuno Borges vs Felix Auger-Aliassime Jun 15 $8 +$2 +23%
Nottingham Open: Qinwen Zheng vs Maria Sakkari Jun 15 $30 −$12 -40%
Brescia: Alessandra Mazzola vs Luisina Giovannini Jun 15 $4 $0 -5%
Spread: San Jose Earthquakes (-1.5) Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
VfB Stuttgart vs. Hamburger SV: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Hawks vs. Heat Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-04-11? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5) Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Oilers vs. Kings: O/U 6.5 Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Wild vs. Blues Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Miami Marlins vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Cleveland Guardians vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 8.5 Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Colorado Rockies vs. San Diego Padres Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Spread: Inter Miami CF (-1.5) Jun 15 $7 −$7 -100%
FC Dallas vs. St. Louis City SC: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $8 −$8 -100%
Wild vs. Predators Jun 15 $11 −$11 -100%
Senators vs. Devils Jun 15 $12 −$12 -100%
Miami Marlins vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 7.5 Jun 15 $69 +$34 +48%
Penguins vs. Capitals Jun 15 $12 −$12 -100%
Capitals vs. Penguins Jun 15 $16 −$16 -100%
Will Austin FC win on 2026-04-11? Jun 15 $13 −$13 -100%
Will Sevilla FC win on 2026-04-11? Jun 15 $22 −$22 -100%
UFC 327: Jirí Procházka vs. Carlos Ulberg (Light Heavyweight, Main Car Jun 15 $5 +$5 +98%
Map Handicap: G2 (-1.5) vs Gentle Mates (+1.5) Jun 15 $21 −$21 -100%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - IEM Rio Group B Jun 15 $15 −$15 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? BUY No 77¢ $173 59m
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 64¢ $82 59m
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Natus Vincere $0 1h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Natus Vincere $0 1h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Natus Vincere $0 1h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Natus Vincere $0 1h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Natus Vincere $0 1h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Natus Vincere $0 1h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Natus Vincere $0 1h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Natus Vincere $0 1h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Natus Vincere $0 1h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Natus Vincere $0 1h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Natus Vincere $0 1h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Natus Vincere $0 1h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Natus Vincere $0 1h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Natus Vincere $0 1h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Natus Vincere $0 1h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Natus Vincere $0 1h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Natus Vincere $0 1h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Natus Vincere $0 1h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Natus Vincere $0 1h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Natus Vincere $0 1h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Natus Vincere $0 1h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Natus Vincere $0 1h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Natus Vincere $0 1h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Natus Vincere $0 1h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Natus Vincere $0 1h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Natus Vincere $0 1h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Natus Vincere $0 1h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Natus Vincere $0 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $207.86 · official $207.86 (match) · 665 history records