Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T11:38:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
79 0x79df…31d6 sports 958 markets active 0h ago coverage 108d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialist⚠ High turnoverP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$297 (-0%) realized −$227 · open −$70
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate45%432W / 523L
Whale WR55%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$121per market
Trades / day15.9pace
Fees−$1,367est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$453now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 108d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% −$3,655
other 0% −$68
crypto 0% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-15.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 59 -20.4% -28.0% 41% 36% -20.6%
≤30d 204 +4.6% -5.4% 48% 39% -9.0%
≤90d 767 -5.4% -14.4% 46% 39% -13.4%
all 955 -6.3% -15.2% 45% 39% -12.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover15.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.2% 39% -12.4%
10% -23.3% 35% -20.8%
15% -30.7% 32% -28.4%
20% -37.5% 27% -35.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
13% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 55% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -12% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$106 vs −$94 · ×1.12 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.93 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

108d coverage
Net worth$453
Realized−$227
Unrealized−$70
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses432 / 523
Whale WR (big bets)55%
Est. fees paid−$1,367
Open positions3
Markets (closed)955 / 958
History coverage108d
Avg bet$121
Trades / day15.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 955 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 3 Winner KT Rolster Challengers 36¢ 100¢ $101 $280 +$179 (+178%)
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner T1 Academy 58¢ 100¢ $100 $172 +$72 (+72%)
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 2 Winner Nongshim Esports Academy 34¢ 0¢ $230 $0 −$230 (-100%)
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner Nongshim Esports Academy 19¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 454 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs GenOne - Map 2 Winner Jun 16 $117 +$77 +66%
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs GenOne - Map 1 Winner Jun 16 $153 −$8 -6%
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs GenOne (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group S Jun 16 $102 −$100 -98%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $102 −$68 -67%
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 16 $74 −$72 -98%
Counter-Strike: K27 vs 100 Thieves - Map 2 Winner Jun 16 $101 −$100 -99%
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs Nuclear TigeRES - Map 2 Winner Jun 16 $101 −$100 -99%
Counter-Strike: HOTU vs TDK - Map 1 Winner Jun 16 $6 −$6 -97%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $285 +$14 +5%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $153 +$181 +118%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $102 −$100 -98%
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 3 Winner Jun 15 $203 −$200 -98%
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Top Esports Challenger - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $254 +$99 +39%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $103 −$100 -98%
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Top Esports Challenger - Game 1 Winner Jun 15 $102 +$289 +283%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $102 −$100 -98%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $101 −$100 -99%
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Top Esports Challenger (BO3) - Asia Masters La Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 14 $342 +$103 +30%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $325 +$309 +95%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $304 −$7 -2%
LoL: RED Canids vs LOS - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $203 −$200 -98%
LoL: RED Canids vs LOS - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $101 −$100 -99%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $102 +$145 +143%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $203 +$148 +73%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $51 −$50 -98%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $102 −$100 -98%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $314 −$310 -99%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $204 −$200 -98%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $101 −$100 -99%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $102 −$100 -98%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 13 $101 +$6 +6%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 13 $102 −$100 -98%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 3 Winner Jun 13 $205 −$200 -98%
LoL: Eintracht Spandau vs Anubis Gaming (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group D Jun 12 $102 +$137 +134%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $224 −$169 -75%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $102 −$100 -98%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $283 −$117 -41%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $41 +$50 +124%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $102 +$129 +127%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $214 −$210 -98%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $9 −$8 -98%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 1 Winner Jun 12 $203 +$182 +90%
LoL: Vivo Keyd Stars vs RED Canids - Game 1 Winner Jun 11 $20 +$2 +8%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $101 +$91 +90%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $112 +$95 +85%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Monte - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $101 +$87 +86%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $103 −$100 -98%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs B8 - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $202 +$103 +51%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 2 Winner BUY Nongshim Esports Academy 28¢ $31 28m
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 2 Winner BUY Nongshim Esports Academy 29¢ $102 33m
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 2 Winner BUY Nongshim Esports Academy 42¢ $102 42m
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner BUY T1 Academy 58¢ $101 1h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner BUY Nongshim Esports Academy 19¢ $20 1h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 3 Winner BUY KT Rolster Challengers 36¢ $102 3h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 3 Winner BUY KT Rolster Challengers 38¢ $1 3h
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs GenOne (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group S BUY KOLESIE 21¢ $102 14h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL No 17¢ $33 15h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 50¢ $102 15h
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs GenOne - Map 2 Winner BUY GenOne 18¢ $16 15h
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs GenOne - Map 2 Winner BUY KOLESIE 51¢ $101 16h
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs GenOne - Map 1 Winner BUY GenOne 35¢ $51 16h
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs GenOne - Map 1 Winner BUY KOLESIE 35¢ $102 16h
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner BUY FUT Esports 20¢ $74 19h
Counter-Strike: K27 vs 100 Thieves - Map 2 Winner BUY 100 Thieves 55¢ $101 20h
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs Nuclear TigeRES - Map 2 Winner BUY Gentle Mates 51¢ $101 23h
Counter-Strike: HOTU vs TDK - Map 1 Winner BUY HOTU 12¢ $6 26h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Natus Vincere 34¢ $102 39h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 2 Winner BUY G2 26¢ $31 40h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 2 Winner BUY G2 27¢ $51 40h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 2 Winner BUY Natus Vincere 32¢ $102 41h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 2 Winner BUY Natus Vincere 46¢ $102 41h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 1 Winner BUY G2 25¢ $31 41h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 1 Winner BUY G2 25¢ $51 41h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 1 Winner BUY G2 70¢ $50 41h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 1 Winner BUY Natus Vincere 6¢ $21 41h
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 3 Winner BUY Solary 34¢ $102 42h
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 3 Winner BUY Solary 52¢ $101 42h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner BUY FUT Esports 14¢ $82 44h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $452.80 · official $452.80 (match) · 2239 history records