Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T19:36:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
79 0x79de…e4be sports 80 markets active 1h ago coverage 240d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$1,513 (+19%) realized +$1,506 · open +$7
Gross ROI / mkt +7% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -3% what you keep after slip
Net edge-3%after slip
Net WR57%break-even
Win rate58%42W / 30L
Drawdown19%max
Avg bet$102per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$68est.
Kalshi-fit65%portable
Net worth$857now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$60
7 days+$210
14 days+$661
30 days+$1,285
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 62% +$986
other 35% +$436
tech 1% +$35
world 1% +$33
economics 1% +$7
culture 0% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +57%
net ROI/market (all)-3.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 25 +0.0% -9.5% 60% 60% -1.6%
≤30d 34 +26.3% +14.3% 59% 59% +22.6%
≤90d 46 +17.2% +6.0% 59% 59% +9.6%
all 72 +6.9% -3.3% 58% 57% +9.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -3.3% 57% +9.1%
10% -12.5% 49% -1.4%
15% -21.0% 36% -10.9%
20% -28.7% 29% -19.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 30% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +21% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +7% · $-wt +20% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -15% → late +29% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$74 vs −$55 · ×1.36 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.9 per $1 lost it wins $1.9
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

240d coverage
Net worth$857
Realized+$1,506
Unrealized+$7
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses42 / 30
Est. fees paid−$68
Open positions8
Markets (closed)72 / 80
History coverage240d
Avg bet$102
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown19%
Kalshi-fit65%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 72 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 46¢ 48¢ $200 $209 +$9 (+5%)
Will Colombia win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 49¢ 50¢ $100 $102 +$2 (+2%)
Will Canada win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 61¢ 62¢ $100 $100 +$0 (+0%)
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Yes 91¢ 90¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Yes 64¢ 64¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Will Australia finish second in Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? Yes 62¢ 62¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 24¢ 24¢ $100 $98 −$2 (-2%)
France vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 Over 53¢ 52¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 21 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $201 +$43 +21%
Spread: France (-2.5) Jun 22 $152 −$8 -6%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $101 −$101 -100%
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 22 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $152 +$83 +54%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $101 −$100 -99%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 3.5 Jun 21 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $101 +$29 +29%
Spread: Ecuador (-2.5) Jun 21 $143 +$72 +50%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $103 +$12 +12%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $20 $0 -2%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $202 +$80 +40%
Counter-Strike: GenOne vs 100 Thieves (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Pla Jun 20 $101 +$44 +44%
Counter-Strike: QUAZAR vs ReThink (BO3) - ESEA European Finals Playoff Jun 20 $101 +$28 +27%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $30 +$20 +65%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $50 +$21 +41%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $101 +$80 +79%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $61 +$41 +67%
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $101 +$68 +67%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $61 +$38 +62%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $152 +$86 +57%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $153 −$150 -98%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $51 −$4 -8%
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? Jun 18 $20 −$20 -98%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $31 −$30 -98%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $41 +$207 +505%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $101 +$94 +93%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 15 $36 +$89 +250%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 14 $31 −$30 -98%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $204 +$291 +143%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 31 $303 −$7 -2%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the NBA Western Conference Finals? May 31 $306 +$632 +206%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 19 $31 +$39 +129%
Will the New York Knicks win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? May 18 $304 +$59 +19%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 18 $259 +$51 +20%
NBA Playoffs: Who Will Win Series? - Cavaliers vs. Pistons May 17 $323 −$250 -77%
NBA Playoffs: Who Will Win Series? - Spurs vs. Timberwolves May 17 $302 +$69 +23%
Thunder vs. Lakers May 12 $151 +$30 +20%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 11 $10 −$10 -94%
Pistons vs. Cavaliers May 11 $153 −$150 -98%
NBA Playoffs: Knicks vs. 76ers Total Games O/U 5.5 May 11 $303 +$150 +50%
Cavaliers vs. Pistons May 07 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Europe (UEFA) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 07 $72 −$2 -2%
Timberwolves vs. Spurs May 07 $60 +$19 +31%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 mee Mar 23 $50 +$7 +15%
Will Sinners win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? Feb 09 $10 −$10 -100%
Cavaliers vs. Kings Feb 08 $36 −$36 -100%
Warriors vs. Lakers Feb 08 $30 −$30 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
France vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 53¢ $51 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 91¢ $100 1h
Spread: France (-2.5) SELL France 55¢ $96 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 82¢ $201 1h
Spread: France (-2.5) SELL France 56¢ $48 6h
Spread: France (-2.5) BUY France 57¢ $152 6h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 64¢ $101 6h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 100¢ $234 37h
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $20 39h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $101 39h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 59¢ $101 39h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 57¢ $101 39h
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 100¢ $130 39h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 12¢ $76 43h
Will France reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 46¢ $203 43h
Will Australia finish second in Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Gro BUY Yes 62¢ $101 43h
Will Colombia win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 49¢ $102 43h
Spread: Ecuador (-2.5) BUY Curaçao 58¢ $1 43h
Spread: Ecuador (-2.5) BUY Curaçao 58¢ $20 43h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 84¢ $20 43h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 85¢ $20 43h
Will Canada win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 62¢ $51 43h
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 24¢ $102 2d
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 77¢ $101 2d
Will Canada win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 61¢ $51 2d
Counter-Strike: QUAZAR vs ReThink (BO3) - ESEA European Finals Playoff BUY QUAZAR 78¢ $101 2d
Counter-Strike: GenOne vs 100 Thieves (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Pla BUY 100 Thieves 69¢ $101 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 66¢ $40 2d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 12¢ $39 2d
Spread: Ecuador (-2.5) SELL Curaçao 56¢ $40 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $856.52 · official $856.52 (match) · 165 history records