Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T04:14:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
79 0x79db…70cd other 59 markets active 1h ago coverage 8d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$15 (-7%) realized −$14 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate45%24W / 29L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day12.1pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit53%portable
Net worth$14now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$3
7 days−$22
14 days−$17
30 days−$17
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 49% −$11
crypto 42% −$12
sports 10% +$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-11.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 51 -4.7% -13.8% 43% 43% -19.8%
≤30d 53 -1.7% -11.1% 45% 45% -17.1%
≤90d 53 -1.7% -11.1% 45% 45% -17.1%
all 53 -1.7% -11.1% 45% 45% -17.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover12.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.1% 45% -17.1%
10% -19.6% 42% -25.1%
15% -27.4% 36% -32.3%
20% -34.5% 30% -38.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +5% → late -8% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$3 · ×0.94 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.78 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

8d coverage
Net worth$14
Realized−$14
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses24 / 29
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions5
Markets (closed)53 / 59
History coverage8d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day12.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit53%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 53 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Yes 30¢ 32¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+5%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ 18¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+0%)
Arda Güler: 1+ assists Yes 26¢ 22¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-13%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 7¢ $3 $2 −$1 (-35%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 4¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-21%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 16 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 0 Haiti? Jun 20 $28 $0 -0%
Endrick: 1+ goals Jun 20 $2 −$2 -80%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $5 +$5 +105%
Tomáš Souček: 1+ goals Jun 18 $1 −$1 -97%
Bruno Fernandes: 1+ assists Jun 17 $2 −$2 -98%
Bruno Fernandes: 1+ goals Jun 17 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $3 +$4 +116%
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Algeria? Jun 17 $2 +$5 +251%
Lionel Messi: 1+ goals Jun 17 $2 +$2 +116%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $2 −$1 -73%
Julián Álvarez: 1+ goals Jun 17 $1 −$1 -98%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $2 +$2 +101%
Exact Score: France 1 - 2 Senegal? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Rayan Cherki: 1+ assists Jun 16 $2 −$2 -98%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $3 +$2 +75%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $2 −$1 -38%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10 −$8 -82%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -87%
Exact Score: Sweden 2 - 1 Tunisia? Jun 15 $1 +$1 +73%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $4 +$2 +43%
Alexander Isak: 1+ goals Jun 15 $2 +$3 +170%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 14 $8 +$2 +19%
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 1 Japan? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 0 Curaçao? Jun 14 $1 $0 -15%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1 $0 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 14 $5 +$5 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 14 $2 +$2 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 14 $2 +$3 +166%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$1 -44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 14 $2 +$2 +103%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 14 $5 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 14 $10 −$5 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 14 $5 +$2 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 14 $5 +$1 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 14 $3 −$2 -62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 14 $5 +$2 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 14 $1 +$3 +280%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 14 $5 +$3 +66%
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? Jun 14 $3 −$1 -48%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $5 +$3 +50%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $5 1h
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 0 Haiti? SELL Yes 99¢ $26 1h
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 0 Haiti? BUY Yes 97¢ $25 1h
Endrick: 1+ goals SELL Yes 8¢ $0 1h
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 0 Haiti? SELL Yes 22¢ $1 2h
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 0 Haiti? BUY Yes 34¢ $2 2h
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 0 Haiti? SELL Yes 12¢ $1 2h
Endrick: 1+ goals BUY Yes 39¢ $2 2h
Arda Güler: 1+ assists BUY Yes 26¢ $3 2h
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 0 Haiti? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 2h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 100¢ $10 25h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 48¢ $5 26h
Tomáš Souček: 1+ goals BUY Yes 13¢ $1 36h
Bruno Fernandes: 1+ assists BUY Yes 36¢ $2 2d
Bruno Fernandes: 1+ goals BUY Yes 33¢ $2 2d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 86¢ $7 2d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 39¢ $3 2d
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Algeria? SELL Yes 97¢ $7 3d
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Algeria? BUY Yes 27¢ $2 3d
Lionel Messi: 1+ goals SELL Yes 99¢ $4 3d
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 4¢ $1 3d
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 14¢ $2 3d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 18¢ $3 3d
Lionel Messi: 1+ goals BUY Yes 45¢ $2 3d
Julián Álvarez: 1+ goals BUY Yes 25¢ $1 3d
Exact Score: France 1 - 2 Senegal? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 3d
Rayan Cherki: 1+ assists BUY Yes 29¢ $2 3d
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 49¢ $2 3d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 4d
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? SELL Yes 50¢ $5 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $13.60 · official $13.71 (match) · 104 history records