Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T23:55:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
79 0x79d9…7ccc other 126 markets active 1h ago coverage 100d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$54 (-0%) realized −$54 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate10%13W / 112L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$140per market
Trades / day4.3pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$53now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$5
7 days−$17
14 days−$25
30 days−$45
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 31% −$27
other 26% −$18
sports 22% −$9
crypto 8% −$4
culture 5% −$5
economics 3% −$3
world 2% −$6
finance 2% −$1
tech 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 20 -1.1% -10.5% 5% 0% -10.1%
≤30d 67 -0.9% -10.3% 7% 0% -10.1%
≤90d 110 -0.8% -10.2% 8% 0% -10.0%
all 125 -0.7% -10.2% 10% 0% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.2% 0% -9.9%
10% -18.8% 0% -18.5%
15% -26.6% 0% -26.4%
20% -33.8% 0% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 34% · top 2 58% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.91 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.11 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

100d coverage
Net worth$53
Realized−$54
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)10%
Wins / losses13 / 112
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)125 / 126
History coverage100d
Avg bet$140
Trades / day4.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 125 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? No 97¢ 97¢ $54 $53 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 17 $62 $0 -0%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? Jun 17 $55 −$1 -2%
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 17 $55 $0 -1%
Will Ivory Coast reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $29 −$1 -2%
Will Ferrari be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 16 $101 −$1 -1%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 16 $143 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 16 $99 −$2 -2%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 15 $167 $0 -0%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $60 $0 -1%
Will Morocco reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 14 $11 $0 -3%
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 14 $104 $0 -0%
Will The Super Mario Galaxy Movie be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 14 $122 $0 -0%
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 13 $223 −$2 -1%
Will Gabriel Attal win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 13 $360 −$1 -0%
Will UNRWA win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 13 $211 −$2 -1%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $176 $0 -0%
Will Ecuador reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $38 −$1 -2%
Will Japan reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 12 $64 −$1 -2%
Will Bruno Fernandes win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $54 −$2 -4%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 11 $536 −$1 -0%
Will Argentina advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World C Jun 10 $46 $0 -1%
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in June? Jun 10 $58 $0 -1%
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 10 $49 $0 -0%
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 10 $160 −$2 -2%
Will OG Anunoby win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? Jun 09 $50 −$1 -1%
Will Tom Steyer win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 07 $47 $0 +0%
Will Belgium score the most goals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 06 $11 −$1 -5%
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2026 World Series? Jun 06 $388 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 06 $53 −$1 -1%
Will Lautaro Martinez be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Jun 05 $46 $0 -0%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? Jun 05 $92 −$2 -2%
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 04 $270 −$1 -0%
Will MOUZ win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 04 $44 $0 -0%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 04 $221 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $52,500 in June? Jun 03 $51 −$1 -2%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 03 $101 $0 -0%
Will Bruno Retailleau win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 03 $258 −$1 -0%
Will Falcons win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 02 $43 −$1 -2%
Will François Hollande win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 01 $277 $0 -0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 01 $106 $0 -0%
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 01 $174 $0 -0%
Will David Lisnard win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 01 $63 $0 -0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 31 $123 −$1 -0%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 31 $43 $0 -1%
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 31 $56 $0 -0%
Will the Buffalo Bills win the 2027 NFL league championship? May 31 $60 −$1 -2%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 30 $46 $0 -1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 30 $113 −$5 -5%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 30 $50 $0 -1%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet May 29 $111 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 97¢ $27 1h
Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 97¢ $27 1h
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL No 97¢ $62 1h
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 97¢ $62 9h
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? SELL No 90¢ $54 10h
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $55 15h
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 96¢ $55 15h
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 96¢ $29 21h
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 96¢ $21 21h
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 96¢ $5 22h
Will Ivory Coast reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 93¢ $28 22h
Will Ivory Coast reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 95¢ $29 30h
Will Ferrari be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 91¢ $56 31h
Will Ferrari be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 91¢ $57 36h
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL No 97¢ $46 36h
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 97¢ $46 41h
Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $43 41h
Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 95¢ $44 2d
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL No 96¢ $43 2d
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 97¢ $43 2d
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 98¢ $48 2d
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 98¢ $48 2d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 90¢ $59 2d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 90¢ $60 3d
Will Morocco reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? SELL No 92¢ $10 3d
Will Morocco reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY No 94¢ $11 3d
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 98¢ $48 3d
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 98¢ $48 3d
Will The Super Mario Galaxy Movie be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 95¢ $65 3d
Will The Super Mario Galaxy Movie be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 95¢ $65 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $53.44 · official $53.44 (match) · 482 history records