Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T06:30:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
79 0x79d2…21fe crypto 23 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$34 (+15%) realized +$37 · open −$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +55% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +20% what you keep after slip
Net edge+20%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate37%7W / 12L
Drawdown96%max
Avg bet$10per market
Trades / day42.0pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$25now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 44% +$30
crypto 35% −$27
sports 21% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)+40.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 19 +55.3% +40.5% 37% 37% -6.6%
≤30d 19 +55.3% +40.5% 37% 37% -6.6%
≤90d 19 +55.3% +40.5% 37% 37% -6.6%
all 19 +55.3% +40.5% 37% 37% -6.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover42.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +40.5% 37% -6.6%
10% ← realistic here +27.1% 37% -15.5%
15% +14.8% 37% -23.7%
20% +3.5% 21% -31.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 43% · top 2 72% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +55% · $-wt +3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +171% → late -48% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$6 · ×1.86 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.09 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$25
Realized+$37
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)37%
Wins / losses7 / 12
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions4
Markets (closed)19 / 23
History coverage1d
Avg bet$10
Trades / day42.0
Drawdown96%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 19 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Spirit 75¢ 74¢ $15 $15 −$0 (-2%)
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Yes 26¢ 26¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-2%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Up 1¢ 0¢ $5 $2 −$2 (-50%)
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? Yes 20¢ 20¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $8 +$3 +40%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $26 −$1 -3%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 17 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 17 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 17 $2 +$3 +124%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 17 $4 −$2 -45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 17 $2 $0 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 17 $2 +$2 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 17 $2 +$35 +1620%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $44 +$23 +52%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $16 +$8 +48%
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play Jun 16 $15 +$7 +48%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $1 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $1 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $1 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $1 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $1 1m
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 75¢ $25 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET BUY Down 42¢ $26 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET BUY Up 33¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET BUY Up 12¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET BUY Up 12¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET BUY Down 88¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET BUY Down 88¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET BUY Down 2¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET BUY Up 21¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET BUY Up 21¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET BUY Up 2¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET BUY Up 2¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET BUY Up 2¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET BUY Down 2¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET BUY Down 2¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET BUY Up 5¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET BUY Up 6¢ $1 2h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $26 2h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 11¢ $3 2h
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $3 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $25.03 · official $45.03 · 61 history records