Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T08:57:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
79 0x79d0…4dff sports 697 markets active 13h ago coverage 68d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$1,949 (-17%) realized −$1,943 · open −$6
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -31% what you keep after slip
Net edge-31%after slip
Net WR21%break-even
Win rate21%147W / 549L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$17per market
Trades / day38.8pace
Fees−$210est.
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$35
7 days−$131
14 days−$299
30 days−$1,534
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 61% −$1,458
weather 22% −$473
other 15% −$328
world 1% −$4
crypto 1% −$33
politics 0% −$4
tech 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +21%
net ROI/market (all)-18.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 94 -14.4% -22.5% 37% 37% -23.1%
≤30d 516 -9.2% -17.8% 21% 21% -29.9%
≤90d 696 -9.8% -18.4% 21% 21% -29.1%
all 696 -9.8% -18.4% 21% 21% -29.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover38.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -18.4% 21% -29.1%
10% ← realistic here -26.2% 20% -35.8%
15% -33.4% 19% -42.0%
20% -39.9% 18% -47.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -21% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -21% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -20% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
3.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$27 vs −$11 · ×2.37 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.64 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

68d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1,943
Unrealized−$6
Win rate (resolved)21%
Wins / losses147 / 549
Est. fees paid−$210
Open positions1
Markets (closed)696 / 697
History coverage68d
Avg bet$17
Trades / day38.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 696 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Petra Marcinko vs Aoi Ito Aoi Ito 26¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 420 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Parma: Ilia Simakin vs Jacopo Vasami Jun 16 $4 −$4 -98%
Poznan: Martin Krumich vs Alan Wazny Jun 16 $6 −$6 -98%
Parma: Pedro Martinez vs Daniel Rincon Jun 16 $7 +$4 +67%
Royan: Philip Henning vs Gerard Campana Lee Jun 16 $4 −$1 -19%
HSBC Championships: Jenson Brooksby vs Martin Damm Jun 16 $3 −$3 -97%
HSBC Championships: Aleksandar Kovacevic vs Francisco Cerundolo Jun 16 $12 −$12 -97%
HSBC Championships: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Corentin Moutet Jun 16 $6 +$16 +262%
Nottingham 2: Felix Gill vs Hugo Gaston Jun 15 $25 −$23 -89%
Nottingham 2: Coleman Wong vs Billy Harris Jun 15 $25 −$25 -98%
Royan: Carlos Sanchez Jover vs Alejandro Moro Canas Jun 15 $11 −$7 -62%
Figueira Da Foz: Susan Bandecchi vs Vera Zvonareva Jun 15 $11 +$17 +149%
Grass Court Championships: Elise Mertens vs Liudmila Samsonova Jun 15 $4 −$4 -98%
Brescia: Ekaterine Gorgodze vs Nuria Brancaccio Jun 15 $6 −$6 -98%
Dublin: Clement Chidekh vs Colton Smith Jun 15 $12 +$8 +69%
Nottingham Open: Talia Gibson vs Francesca Jones Jun 15 $35 +$30 +86%
Halle Open: Flavio Cobolli vs Frances Tiafoe Jun 15 $7 −$7 -98%
Brescia: Alessandra Mazzola vs Luisina Giovannini Jun 15 $6 +$3 +42%
HSBC Championships: Tommy Paul vs Zachary Svajda Jun 15 $3 −$3 -98%
Nottingham 2: Darwin Blanch vs Zhizhen Zhang Jun 15 $9 −$9 -98%
Nottingham Open: Qinwen Zheng vs Maria Sakkari Jun 15 $11 +$13 +120%
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Maria Timofeeva vs Renata Za Jun 15 $5 −$3 -59%
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Tessa Brockmann vs Alycia Pa Jun 15 $11 −$11 -98%
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Diane Parry vs Ella Seidel Jun 15 $3 −$3 -97%
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Suzan Lamens vs Dalma Galfi Jun 15 $13 −$13 -98%
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Katerina Siniakova vs Yue Yu Jun 15 $4 −$4 -98%
Modena: Katarzyna Kawa vs Lucia Bronzetti Jun 14 $22 +$36 +162%
ITF Los Angeles: Kaylan Bigun vs Andrew Johnson Jun 14 $3 −$3 -97%
Nottingham 2: Shintaro Mochizuki vs Michael Zheng Jun 14 $12 −$12 -98%
Nottingham 2: Nicolai Budkov Kjaer vs Mackenzie McDonald Jun 14 $7 +$5 +74%
ITF Brasilia: Nicolas Oliveira vs Alex Hernandez Jun 14 $2 −$2 -98%
Libema Open: Kamil Majchrzak vs Alex de Minaur Jun 14 $4 +$5 +116%
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Rinky Hijikata vs Marcos Giron Jun 14 $9 −$9 -98%
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Aleksandar Kovacevic vs Giovanni Mp Jun 14 $6 −$6 -98%
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Taylor Fritz Jun 14 $10 +$10 +95%
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Aleksandar Vukic vs Harry Wendelken Jun 14 $8 −$8 -98%
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Zachary Svajda vs Martin Damm Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
ITF Kayseri: Ivan Marrero Curbelo vs Maxwell Mckennon Jun 14 $2 −$2 -98%
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Lulu Sun vs Anhelina Kalinin Jun 14 $17 +$8 +46%
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Anna Blinkova vs Anna Bondar Jun 14 $10 −$10 -99%
ITF Ceska Lipa: Julia Avdeeva vs Eva Vedder Jun 14 $8 +$19 +234%
Bratislava: Alexander Shevchenko vs Taro Daniel Jun 14 $10 −$10 -99%
ITF Curtea de Arges: Radu Mihai Papoe vs Anas Mazdrashki Jun 14 $2 −$2 -97%
ITF Varnamo: Niels Mcdonald vs Sandro Kopp Jun 14 $6 −$6 -98%
ITF Kayseri: Ilay Yoruk vs Lan Mi Jun 14 $8 −$7 -84%
ITF Cuiaba: Martina Capurro Taborda vs Antonia Rivera Jun 13 $16 +$8 +46%
ITF Los Angeles: Alina Shcherbinina vs Alexandra Vagramov Jun 13 $11 −$11 -98%
Modena: Lucia Bronzetti vs Laura Samson Jun 13 $7 +$10 +140%
ITF Decatur: Lea Ma vs Zuzanna Pawlikowska Jun 13 $6 −$6 -97%
Tucuman: Guido Justo vs Luciano Emanuel Ambrogi Jun 13 $3 +$2 +78%
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Dino Prizmic vs Rinky Hijikata Jun 13 $8 +$12 +146%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Parma: Ilia Simakin vs Jacopo Vasami BUY Ilia Simakin 20¢ $4 13h
Poznan: Martin Krumich vs Alan Wazny BUY Alan Wazny 25¢ $1 17h
Poznan: Martin Krumich vs Alan Wazny BUY Alan Wazny 36¢ $5 17h
Parma: Pedro Martinez vs Daniel Rincon SELL Daniel Rincon 72¢ $11 17h
Parma: Pedro Martinez vs Daniel Rincon BUY Daniel Rincon 41¢ $4 17h
Royan: Philip Henning vs Gerard Campana Lee SELL Gerard Campana Lee 32¢ $3 17h
HSBC Championships: Jenson Brooksby vs Martin Damm BUY Martin Damm 12¢ $3 17h
HSBC Championships: Aleksandar Kovacevic vs Francisco Cerundolo BUY Aleksandar Kovacevic 13¢ $4 17h
HSBC Championships: Aleksandar Kovacevic vs Francisco Cerundolo BUY Aleksandar Kovacevic 13¢ $3 17h
HSBC Championships: Aleksandar Kovacevic vs Francisco Cerundolo BUY Aleksandar Kovacevic 11¢ $2 17h
HSBC Championships: Aleksandar Kovacevic vs Francisco Cerundolo BUY Aleksandar Kovacevic 8¢ $3 17h
Parma: Pedro Martinez vs Daniel Rincon BUY Daniel Rincon 44¢ $2 17h
Royan: Philip Henning vs Gerard Campana Lee BUY Gerard Campana Lee 38¢ $4 17h
HSBC Championships: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Corentin Moutet SELL Corentin Moutet 100¢ $22 18h
HSBC Championships: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Corentin Moutet BUY Corentin Moutet 27¢ $2 38h
Nottingham 2: Felix Gill vs Hugo Gaston SELL Hugo Gaston 34¢ $2 38h
HSBC Championships: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Corentin Moutet BUY Corentin Moutet 27¢ $4 38h
Nottingham 2: Felix Gill vs Hugo Gaston BUY Hugo Gaston 41¢ $3 38h
Nottingham 2: Felix Gill vs Hugo Gaston BUY Hugo Gaston 38¢ $2 38h
Nottingham 2: Coleman Wong vs Billy Harris BUY Coleman Wong 2¢ $1 38h
Nottingham 2: Felix Gill vs Hugo Gaston BUY Hugo Gaston 53¢ $5 38h
Nottingham 2: Felix Gill vs Hugo Gaston BUY Hugo Gaston 49¢ $5 38h
Nottingham 2: Felix Gill vs Hugo Gaston BUY Hugo Gaston 49¢ $2 38h
Nottingham 2: Felix Gill vs Hugo Gaston BUY Hugo Gaston 49¢ $8 38h
Royan: Carlos Sanchez Jover vs Alejandro Moro Canas SELL Carlos Sanchez Jover 99¢ $13 38h
Nottingham 2: Coleman Wong vs Billy Harris BUY Coleman Wong 18¢ $3 38h
Royan: Carlos Sanchez Jover vs Alejandro Moro Canas BUY Alejandro Moro Canas 21¢ $3 38h
Royan: Carlos Sanchez Jover vs Alejandro Moro Canas BUY Alejandro Moro Canas 17¢ $3 38h
Nottingham 2: Coleman Wong vs Billy Harris BUY Coleman Wong 21¢ $3 38h
Royan: Carlos Sanchez Jover vs Alejandro Moro Canas BUY Alejandro Moro Canas 14¢ $1 38h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.01 · official $0.01 (match) · 2738 history records