Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T18:40:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
79 0x79c9…a9d7 other 13 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$94 (-13%) realized −$19 · open −$75
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -34% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -49% what you keep after slip
Net edge-49%after slip
Net WR20%break-even
Win rate20%2W / 8L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$56per market
Trades / day25.0pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit23%portable
Net worth$188now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 75% −$99
sports 25% +$43
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +20%
net ROI/market (all)-39.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 -33.5% -39.9% 20% 20% -4.0%
≤30d 10 -33.5% -39.9% 20% 20% -4.0%
≤90d 10 -33.5% -39.9% 20% 20% -4.0%
all 10 -33.5% -39.9% 20% 20% -4.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover25.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -39.9% 20% -4.0%
10% ← realistic here -45.6% 20% -13.1%
15% -50.9% 20% -21.5%
20% -55.7% 20% -29.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 85% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -34% · $-wt +6% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$57 vs −$12 · ×4.76 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.19 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$188
Realized−$19
Unrealized−$75
Win rate (resolved)20%
Wins / losses2 / 8
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions3
Markets (closed)10 / 13
History coverage1d
Avg bet$56
Trades / day25.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit23%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 10 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Yes 63¢ 46¢ $233 $173 −$60 (-26%)
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $20 $10 −$10 (-50%)
Jeffrey Epstein foul play confirmed by December 31, 2026? Yes 5¢ 3¢ $9 $5 −$4 (-45%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $18 −$3 -17%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $30 +$17 +57%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: DR Congo O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $76 +$98 +128%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $22 −$1 -6%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $58 −$3 -5%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $76 −$72 -94%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -97%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $75 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 61¢ $129 20m
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 65¢ $107 28m
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 7¢ $15 47m
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? SELL Yes 28¢ $47 47m
Portugal vs. DR Congo: DR Congo O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $174 47m
Portugal vs. DR Congo: DR Congo O/U 0.5 BUY Over 43¢ $76 1h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 11¢ $21 1h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 18¢ $55 1h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $22 2h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 18¢ $58 2h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 8¢ $10 2h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $30 4h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 8¢ $8 4h
Jeffrey Epstein foul play confirmed by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 5¢ $85 5h
Jeffrey Epstein foul play confirmed by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 5¢ $100 5h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 13¢ $5 18h
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? SELL Yes 1¢ $5 18h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 18h
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY Yes 11¢ $46 19h
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY Yes 14¢ $31 21h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 7¢ $10 21h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 3¢ $2 22h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 79¢ $89 22h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 66¢ $75 24h
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $21 24h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $187.78 · official $191.50 · 27 history records