Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T01:08:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
79 0x79c7…2699 sports 32 markets active 2h ago coverage 62d
COPY-WORTHYcopy this sports specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample
Total PnL +$709 (+47%) realized +$805 · open −$96
Gross ROI / mkt +66% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +50% what you keep after slip
Net edge+50%after slip
Net WR79%break-even
Win rate79%23W / 6L
Drawdown3%max
Avg bet$47per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$16est.
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$140now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$315
7 days+$775
14 days+$764
30 days+$800
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 77% +$606
other 23% +$188
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
worth copying (survives realistic slippage)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +79%
net ROI/market (all)+50.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 +72.9% +56.4% 89% 89% +56.8%
≤30d 14 +74.9% +58.3% 86% 86% +55.4%
≤90d 29 +66.1% +50.3% 79% 79% +53.5%
all 29 +66.1% +50.3% 79% 79% +53.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +50.3% 79% +53.5%
10% +35.9% 79% +38.8%
15% +22.8% 79% +25.4%
20% +10.8% 79% +13.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 31% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +70% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +66% · $-wt +70% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +49% → late +82% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$43 vs −$15 · ×2.86 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×10.97 per $1 lost it wins $10.97
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

62d coverage
Net worth$140
Realized+$805
Unrealized−$96
Win rate (resolved)79%
Wins / losses23 / 6
Est. fees paid−$16
Open positions3
Markets (closed)29 / 32
History coverage62d
Avg bet$47
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown3%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 29 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Boston Cannons vs. California Redwoods California Redwoods 58¢ 60¢ $60 $63 +$3 (+4%)
Exact Score: Algeria 0 - 0 Austria? Yes 24¢ 22¢ $50 $47 −$3 (-6%)
Colombia vs. Portugal: Both Teams to Score Yes 62¢ 15¢ $126 $30 −$96 (-76%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? Jun 27 $31 +$73 +238%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-26? AND Will France win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $298 +$191 +64%
Paraguay vs. Australia: Draw at halftime? Jun 26 $67 +$51 +76%
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: Netherlands O/U 2.5 Jun 26 $142 +$96 +67%
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 2.5 Jun 25 $127 +$85 +67%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: Egypt O/U 1.5 Jun 22 $122 +$114 +93%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Uruguay O/U 1.5 Jun 22 $152 +$102 +67%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 21 $20 −$20 -99%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 21 $101 +$84 +83%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $21 −$19 -90%
De'Aaron Fox: Assists O/U 5.5 Jun 15 $10 +$8 +76%
Chet Holmgren: Points O/U 13.5 Jun 08 $5 +$5 +103%
Houston Astros vs. Texas Rangers Jun 08 $10 +$13 +124%
Spread: Kansas City Royals (-1.5) Jun 08 $10 +$18 +180%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 5.5 May 27 $13 +$24 +180%
Tobias Harris: Rebounds O/U 6.5 May 27 $10 +$11 +112%
Tyrese Maxey: Rebounds O/U 3.5 May 27 $10 +$12 +122%
1H Spread: Thunder (-3.5) May 18 $20 −$20 -99%
James Harden: Assists O/U 6.5 May 11 $10 −$10 -98%
Donovan Mitchell: Points O/U 25.5 May 10 $10 +$11 +109%
Scottie Barnes: Assists O/U 7.5 May 10 $10 +$12 +119%
Anthony Edwards: Rebounds O/U 4.5 May 09 $10 −$10 -99%
Karl-Anthony Towns: Assists O/U 4.5 May 05 $10 −$10 -99%
VJ Edgecombe: Rebounds O/U 5.5 May 01 $2 +$2 +124%
LeBron James: Rebounds O/U 7.5 May 01 $5 +$4 +79%
VJ Edgecombe: Points O/U 15.5 May 01 $10 +$7 +67%
LeBron James: Points O/U 23.5 May 01 $10 +$8 +76%
Paul George: Points O/U 17.5 May 01 $10 +$8 +83%
Alperen Sengün: Assists O/U 5.5 May 01 $20 +$39 +197%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Algeria 0 - 0 Austria? BUY Yes 24¢ $51 2h
Colombia vs. Portugal: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 62¢ $127 2h
Boston Cannons vs. California Redwoods BUY California Redwoods 58¢ $61 4h
Will Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $31 25h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-26? AND Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY 60¢ $298 30h
Paraguay vs. Australia: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 56¢ $67 47h
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: Netherlands O/U 2.5 BUY Over 59¢ $142 2d
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 59¢ $127 3d
New Zealand vs. Egypt: Egypt O/U 1.5 BUY Over 51¢ $122 6d
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Uruguay O/U 1.5 BUY Over 59¢ $152 6d
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Dodgers BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 54¢ $20 6d
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 54¢ $101 6d
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Alex Pereira 55¢ $20 12d
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Ciryl Gane 48¢ $1 12d
De'Aaron Fox: Assists O/U 5.5 BUY Yes 56¢ $10 19d
Spread: Kansas City Royals (-1.5) BUY Kansas City Royals 35¢ $10 26d
Chet Holmgren: Points O/U 13.5 BUY No 48¢ $5 30d
Houston Astros vs. Texas Rangers BUY Houston Astros 44¢ $10 31d
Philadelphia Phillies vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 35¢ $13 31d
1H Spread: Thunder (-3.5) BUY Thunder 51¢ $20 40d
Tobias Harris: Rebounds O/U 6.5 BUY No 46¢ $10 45d
James Harden: Assists O/U 6.5 BUY No 49¢ $10 47d
Tyrese Maxey: Rebounds O/U 3.5 BUY No 44¢ $10 48d
Anthony Edwards: Rebounds O/U 4.5 BUY No 51¢ $10 50d
Karl-Anthony Towns: Assists O/U 4.5 BUY No 52¢ $10 53d
Donovan Mitchell: Points O/U 25.5 BUY No 47¢ $10 55d
Scottie Barnes: Assists O/U 7.5 BUY No 45¢ $10 55d
Alperen Sengün: Assists O/U 5.5 BUY No 33¢ $20 61d
VJ Edgecombe: Points O/U 15.5 BUY No 59¢ $10 62d
LeBron James: Points O/U 23.5 BUY No 56¢ $10 62d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $140.05 · official $140.05 (match) · 57 history records