Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T15:20:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

79
0x79c6…337c
world · 17 markets active 1h ago
4.5score
+$484 +2%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$379 · open −$5
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP world specialistFading edge⚠ Small sample
Net worth$375
Realized+$379
Unrealized−$5
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses6 / 8
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions3
Markets (closed)14 / 17
History coverage154d
Avg bet$1,363
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%
Chart Positions 3 History 14 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$105
7 days−$105
14 days−$105
30 days−$105
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Alex Pereira 51¢ 50¢ $200 $198 −$2 (-1%)
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Card) Justin Gaethje 21¢ 20¢ $100 $98 −$2 (-2%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 17¢ $80 $80 −$0 (-0%)
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31? Yes 19¢ $1,000 $0 −$1,000 (-100%)
UFC Fight Night: Marlon Vera vs. David Martinez (Bantamweight, Main Card) Vera 29¢ $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
UFC Fight Night: Movsar Evloev vs. Lerone Murphy (Featherweight, Main Card) Lerone Murphy 34¢ $496 $0 −$496 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 14 $105 −$105 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Movsar Evloev vs. Lerone Murphy (Featherweight, Main Mar 16 $496 −$496 -100%
Iran leadership change by April 30? Mar 16 $591 −$95 -16%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 10 $200 +$24 +12%
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran? Mar 08 $300 +$67 +22%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31? Feb 28 $10,896 +$675 +6%
UFC Fight Night: Marlon Vera vs. David Martinez (Bantamweight, Main Ca Feb 28 $100 −$100 -100%
US strikes Iran by March 11, 2026? Feb 28 $1,346 +$1,383 +103%
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026? Feb 27 $1,346 $0 -0%
US strikes Iran by March 15, 2026? Feb 27 $1,100 +$246 +22%
US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026? Feb 26 $200 −$29 -14%
US strikes Iran by June 30, 2026? Feb 26 $5,000 −$403 -8%
UFC Fight Night: Sean Strickland vs. Anthony Hernandez (Middleweight, Feb 22 $100 +$212 +212%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31? Jan 11 $1,000 −$1,000 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
world 94% +$844
sports 4% −$388
politics 1% +$24
crypto 0% −$105
other 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $82 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Down 29¢ $105 1h
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Alex Pereira 51¢ $203 1h
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Justin Gaethje 21¢ $102 1h
UFC Fight Night: Movsar Evloev vs. Lerone Murphy (Featherweight, Main BUY Lerone Murphy 34¢ $496 89d
Iran leadership change by April 30? SELL Yes 39¢ $496 89d
Iran leadership change by April 30? BUY Yes 46¢ $591 96d
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL Yes 20¢ $224 96d
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran? SELL Yes 69¢ $367 98d
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran? BUY Yes 56¢ $300 101d
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY Yes 18¢ $200 101d
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31? SELL Yes 96¢ $6,226 105d
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31? BUY Yes 83¢ $5,396 105d
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31? SELL Yes 69¢ $5,345 106d
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31? BUY Yes 75¢ $5,000 106d
UFC Fight Night: Marlon Vera vs. David Martinez (Bantamweight, Main Ca BUY Vera 29¢ $100 106d
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31? BUY Yes 49¢ $500 106d
US strikes Iran by March 11, 2026? SELL Yes 95¢ $2,730 106d
US strikes Iran by March 11, 2026? BUY Yes 47¢ $1,346 106d
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026? SELL No 81¢ $1,346 106d
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026? BUY No 81¢ $1,346 107d
US strikes Iran by March 15, 2026? SELL Yes 51¢ $1,346 107d
US strikes Iran by March 15, 2026? BUY Yes 42¢ $1,100 107d
US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026? SELL Yes 54¢ $171 108d
US strikes Iran by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 64¢ $4,597 108d
US strikes Iran by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 70¢ $4,000 113d
US strikes Iran by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 69¢ $1,000 113d
UFC Fight Night: Sean Strickland vs. Anthony Hernandez (Middleweight, BUY Strickland 32¢ $100 113d
US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026? BUY Yes 63¢ $200 113d
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31? BUY Yes 19¢ $1,000 153d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-13.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤30d 1 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤90d 3 -72.0% -74.7% 0% 0% -62.4%
all 14 -4.3% -13.4% 43% 36% -8.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.4% 36% -8.0%
10% -21.7% 29% -16.8%
15% -29.3% 14% -24.9%
20% -36.2% 14% -32.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $375.42 · official $375.42 (match) · 38 history records