trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) | Alex Pereira | 51¢ | 50¢ | $200 | $198 | −$2 (-1%) |
| UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Card) | Justin Gaethje | 21¢ | 20¢ | $100 | $98 | −$2 (-2%) |
| Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 17¢ | 17¢ | $80 | $80 | −$0 (-0%) |
| Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31? | Yes | 19¢ | 0¢ | $1,000 | $0 | −$1,000 (-100%) |
| UFC Fight Night: Marlon Vera vs. David Martinez (Bantamweight, Main Card) | Vera | 29¢ | 0¢ | $100 | $0 | −$100 (-100%) |
| UFC Fight Night: Movsar Evloev vs. Lerone Murphy (Featherweight, Main Card) | Lerone Murphy | 34¢ | 0¢ | $496 | $0 | −$496 (-100%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET | Jun 14 | $105 | −$105 | -100% |
| UFC Fight Night: Movsar Evloev vs. Lerone Murphy (Featherweight, Main | Mar 16 | $496 | −$496 | -100% |
| Iran leadership change by April 30? | Mar 16 | $591 | −$95 | -16% |
| Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | Mar 10 | $200 | +$24 | +12% |
| Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran? | Mar 08 | $300 | +$67 | +22% |
| Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31? | Feb 28 | $10,896 | +$675 | +6% |
| UFC Fight Night: Marlon Vera vs. David Martinez (Bantamweight, Main Ca | Feb 28 | $100 | −$100 | -100% |
| US strikes Iran by March 11, 2026? | Feb 28 | $1,346 | +$1,383 | +103% |
| US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026? | Feb 27 | $1,346 | $0 | -0% |
| US strikes Iran by March 15, 2026? | Feb 27 | $1,100 | +$246 | +22% |
| US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026? | Feb 26 | $200 | −$29 | -14% |
| US strikes Iran by June 30, 2026? | Feb 26 | $5,000 | −$403 | -8% |
| UFC Fight Night: Sean Strickland vs. Anthony Hernandez (Middleweight, | Feb 22 | $100 | +$212 | +212% |
| Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31? | Jan 11 | $1,000 | −$1,000 | -100% |
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 1 | -100.0% | -100.0% | 0% | 0% | -100.0% |
| ≤30d | 1 | -100.0% | -100.0% | 0% | 0% | -100.0% |
| ≤90d | 3 | -72.0% | -74.7% | 0% | 0% | -62.4% |
| all | 14 | -4.3% | -13.4% | 43% | 36% | -8.0% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -13.4% | 36% | -8.0% |
| 10% | -21.7% | 29% | -16.8% |
| 15% | -29.3% | 14% | -24.9% |
| 20% | -36.2% | 14% | -32.2% |