trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? | Jun 13 | $39 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by | Jun 13 | $35 | +$1 | +2% |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? | Jun 12 | $34 | +$2 | +5% |
| Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? | Jun 10 | $34 | $0 | -1% |
| US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? | Jun 09 | $32 | +$2 | +6% |
| Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra | Jun 09 | $31 | +$1 | +3% |
| Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra | Jun 09 | $4 | $0 | -8% |
| Israel closes its airspace by June 8? | Jun 08 | $31 | $0 | +1% |
| Will Alberta join the US? | Jun 08 | $34 | $0 | +0% |
| Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia | Jun 07 | $16 | $0 | +0% |
| Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? | Jun 07 | $31 | $0 | +0% |
| Iran closes its airspace by June 30? | Jun 06 | $31 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? | Jun 06 | $1 | $0 | -8% |
| Will Burnley FC win on 2025-12-03? | Dec 14 | $6 | +$2 | +25% |
| Will Bad Bunny be the top Spotify artist for 2025? | Dec 14 | $9 | $0 | +4% |
| Will Crystal Palace win on 2025-11-30? | Dec 14 | $51 | +$6 | +12% |
| Will Atletico Madrid win on 2025-11-29? | Nov 26 | $73 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Leeds United win on 2025-12-03? | Nov 26 | $17 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Fulham win on 2025-12-02? | Nov 25 | $6 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | Nov 25 | $16 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | Nov 25 | $12 | −$1 | -10% |
| Will Newcastle win on 2025-12-02? | Nov 25 | $29 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Wolves win on 2025-12-03? | Nov 24 | $15 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Chelsea win the 2025–26 Champions League? | Nov 24 | $14 | $0 | +0% |
| Will MetaMask launch a token by June 30? | Nov 23 | $55 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Arsenal win on 2025-11-23? | Nov 22 | $12 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Barcelona win on 2025-11-29? | Nov 21 | $51 | $0 | +0% |
| Will bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI? | Nov 21 | $40 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Tottenham win the 2025–26 English Premier League? | Oct 08 | $25 | $0 | -0% |
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 12 | +0.7% | -8.9% | 58% | 0% | -8.2% |
| ≤30d | 13 | +0.0% | -9.5% | 54% | 0% | -8.2% |
| ≤90d | 13 | +0.0% | -9.5% | 54% | 0% | -8.2% |
| all | 29 | +1.1% | -8.6% | 34% | 7% | -8.1% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -8.6% | 7% | -8.1% |
| 10% | -17.3% | 3% | -16.9% |
| 15% | -25.3% | 0% | -25.0% |
| 20% | -32.6% | 0% | -32.3% |