Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T01:10:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
79 0x79c1…90d4 sports 167 markets active 2h ago coverage 601d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$56 (-1%) realized −$56 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate3%5W / 162L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$66per market
Trades / day1.1pace
Kalshi-fit66%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 48% −$5
other 31% −$4
politics 14% −$2
economics 4% $0
crypto 2% −$45
culture 1% $0
world 0% $0
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 3 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 4 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
all 167 -0.1% -9.6% 3% 2% -10.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 2% -10.0%
10% -18.3% 2% -18.6%
15% -26.2% 2% -26.5%
20% -33.4% 2% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 55% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% too few recent
Fragile wins
20% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$1 · ×12.69 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.39 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

601d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$56
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)3%
Wins / losses5 / 162
Open positions0
Markets (closed)167 / 167
History coverage601d
Avg bet$66
Trades / day1.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit66%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 167 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Mostafa Pourmohammadi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 16 $10 $0 -0%
Will Rodina gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary elec Jun 01 $6 $0 -0%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by May 31? May 19 $8 $0 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 11 $5 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET Feb 24 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 9PM ET Feb 24 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 19, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET Feb 24 $7 +$7 +100%
XRP Up or Down - February 20, 11AM ET Feb 24 $9 +$9 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 9AM ET Feb 18 $10 +$10 +100%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 16, 12AM ET Feb 18 $10 +$10 +100%
Solana Up or Down - February 13, 3PM ET Feb 15 $12 −$12 -100%
Solana Up or Down - February 5, 6PM ET Feb 06 $58 −$58 -100%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Oct 09 $3 $0 -0%
Will Alberto Undurraga win the 1st round of the 2025 Chilean president Oct 02 $6 $0 -0%
Will Eric Adams win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Sep 25 $2 $0 -0%
Will the Athletics win the 2025 World Series? Sep 06 $4 $0 -0%
Will Zellnor Myrie win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Aug 29 $5 $0 -0%
Will Pirates win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary electi Aug 10 $18 $0 -0%
Will Sporting win the 2025–26 Champions League? Aug 02 $10 $0 -0%
Will the Arizona Diamondbacks win the 2025 World Series? Jul 23 $7 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $200K in July? Jul 15 $7 $0 -0%
Will Anthropic have the top AI model on July 31? Jun 29 $9 $0 -0%
Will David Gaudu win the Tour de France 2025? Jun 24 $2 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago White Sox win the 2025 World Series? Jun 11 $10 $0 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2025 Drivers Champion? May 27 $26 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Rockets win the 2025 NBA Finals? May 01 $23 $0 -0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Apr 22 $4 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150k in April? Apr 13 $9 $0 -0%
Will the Indiana Pacers win the 2025 NBA Finals? Apr 03 $8 $0 -0%
Will Jalen Johnson win 2024-25 NBA Most Improved? Mar 27 $9 $0 -0%
Will the Brooklyn Nets win the Eastern Conference? Mar 16 $4 $0 -0%
Will Canada join US as 51st state before July? Mar 08 $7 $0 -0%
Will Gold close at $2,900-3,000 at the end of 2024? Mar 05 $5 $0 +0%
2024 Balance of Power: R Prez, D Senate, R House Dec 25 $182 $0 -0%
Will Oklahoma State win the 2025 College Football Playoff? Nov 11 $36 $0 -0%
Will the Panthers win the NFC Championship? Nov 11 $25 $0 -0%
Will the Dolphins win Super Bowl 2025? Nov 11 $164 $0 -0%
Will Utah win the 2025 College Football Playoff? Nov 11 $264 $0 -0%
Will Missouri win the 2025 College Football Playoff? Nov 11 $36 $0 -0%
Everton wins the Premier League? Nov 11 $79 $0 -0%
Will Valencia CF win La Liga? Nov 11 $69 $0 -0%
West Ham United wins the Premier League? Nov 11 $119 $0 -0%
Southampton wins the Premier League? Nov 11 $63 $0 -0%
Will RC Celta de Vigo win La Liga? Nov 10 $100 $0 -0%
Will Athletic Bilbao win La Liga? Nov 10 $42 $0 -0%
Will Young Boys win the UEFA Champions League? Nov 10 $112 $0 -0%
Will Bologna win the UEFA Champions League? Nov 10 $110 $0 -0%
Will Nico Iamaleava win the Heisman Trophy? Nov 10 $67 $0 -0%
Will the Giants win Super Bowl 2025? Nov 10 $130 $0 -0%
Bournemouth wins the Premier League? Nov 10 $47 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Mostafa Pourmohammadi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $10 1h
Will Mostafa Pourmohammadi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $10 1h
Will Rodina gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary elec SELL No 100¢ $6 15d
Will Rodina gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary elec BUY No 100¢ $6 15d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by May 31? SELL No 99¢ $8 28d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by May 31? BUY No 100¢ $8 31d
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $5 66d
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $5 66d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 9PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $4 114d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 9PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $2 114d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $4 114d
XRP Up or Down - February 20, 11AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $9 116d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 19, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $7 117d
Ethereum Up or Down - February 16, 12AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $10 121d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 9AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $10 121d
Solana Up or Down - February 13, 3PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $12 123d
Solana Up or Down - February 13, 3PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $1 123d
Solana Up or Down - February 5, 6PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $58 131d
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $3 250d
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $3 250d
Will Alberto Undurraga win the 1st round of the 2025 Chilean president SELL No 100¢ $6 257d
Will Alberto Undurraga win the 1st round of the 2025 Chilean president BUY No 100¢ $6 257d
Will Eric Adams win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? SELL No 99¢ $2 265d
Will Eric Adams win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? BUY No 99¢ $2 265d
Will the Athletics win the 2025 World Series? SELL No 100¢ $4 283d
Will the Athletics win the 2025 World Series? BUY No 100¢ $4 283d
Will Zellnor Myrie win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? SELL No 100¢ $5 291d
Will Zellnor Myrie win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? BUY No 100¢ $5 292d
Will Pirates win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary electi SELL No 100¢ $9 310d
Will Pirates win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary electi BUY No 100¢ $9 310d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 655 history records