Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T10:59:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
79 0x79c0…7125 other 72 markets active 2h ago coverage 448d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$1 (-0%) realized −$2 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR1%break-even
Win rate39%28W / 43L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$15per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$40now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 29% +$4
world 25% $0
politics 23% −$3
crypto 8% $0
tech 6% $0
sports 6% −$2
culture 1% $0
economics 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-13.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 5 -0.5% -10.0% 40% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 5 -0.5% -10.0% 40% 0% -9.4%
all 71 -4.2% -13.3% 39% 1% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.3% 1% -9.6%
10% -21.6% 1% -18.2%
15% -29.2% 1% -26.1%
20% -36.1% 1% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 48% · top 2 59% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% too few recent
Fragile wins
96% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late -10% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.9 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.94 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

448d coverage
Net worth$40
Realized−$2
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses28 / 43
Open positions1
Markets (closed)71 / 72
History coverage448d
Avg bet$15
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 71 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? No 80¢ 81¢ $39 $40 +$1 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 16 $39 $0 +0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 14 $38 $0 +0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 13 $42 $0 +0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? Jun 11 $18 −$1 -6%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 10 $36 +$1 +4%
Ethereum all time high by June 30? Dec 15 $15 $0 +0%
Will ODS win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary election? Dec 15 $15 $0 +0%
Will the Arizona Diamondbacks win the 2025 World Series? Dec 15 $3 $0 -9%
Will Putin meet with Zelenskyy before July? Dec 15 $0 $0 -100%
Will the Liberal Party win the Canadian election by 9-12%? Jun 25 $2 −$2 -100%
Will George Russell be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Jun 24 $7 $0 +1%
Will federal spending decrease by $250-500b between Q4 2024 and Q2 202 Jun 21 $12 $0 -0%
Will the next Prime Minister of Romania be a member of PNL? Jun 21 $2 $0 +8%
Will Kim Jong Un be the first leader out in 2025? Jun 20 $13 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1800 in June? Jun 20 $12 $0 -0%
Will Larry Ellison buy TikTok before July? Jun 19 $1 $0 -30%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before July? Jun 19 $3 −$1 -19%
US-Iran nuclear deal before July? Jun 18 $11 $0 +1%
Will Oracle buy TikTok? Jun 18 $24 $0 -1%
Will Trump deport less than 250,000? Jun 17 $2 $0 -0%
Will Robert Negoiță be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Jun 17 $11 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $4000 in June? Jun 16 $11 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $220 in June? Jun 16 $11 $0 -0%
Will OpenAI have the top AI model on June 30? Jun 14 $10 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump visit Canada in 2025? Jun 13 $26 $0 -0%
Will Elon tweet 175–199 times June 6–13? Jun 11 $13 −$2 -17%
Will Borussia Dortmund win the FIFA Club World Cup? Jun 11 $13 $0 +0%
Will HNP win the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the 2 Jun 06 $16 $0 +0%
Will Isack Hadjar finish second in the 2025 Drivers Championship? Jun 03 $16 $0 +0%
Israel military action against Iran before June? Jun 03 $14 $0 +1%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2025 NBA Finals? Jun 03 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the Chicago Bears win Super Bowl 2026? Jun 01 $2 $0 +0%
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2025 World Series? May 31 $15 $0 +0%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2025 Drivers Champion? May 29 $16 $0 +1%
Will Elon and DOGE cut more than $250b in federal spending in 2025? May 29 $15 $0 -0%
Will Johannes Kaiser win the Chilean presidential election? May 27 $15 −$1 -3%
Will Elon tweet 250–274 times May 16–23? May 22 $16 $0 +2%
Will Luís Montenegro be the next Prime Minister of Portugal after the May 21 $15 +$1 +9%
Will SER win the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the 2 May 16 $15 $0 +0%
Will Israel qualify for the Eurovision 2025 grand final? May 15 $15 $0 -1%
Will Barcelona win La Liga? May 15 $15 $0 +0%
Will Netherlands be the Televote Winner in the Eurovision 2025 Grand F May 13 $15 $0 -0%
Will Elon tweet 325–349 times May 9–16? May 12 $15 $0 +0%
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2025 National League Championshi May 11 $15 $0 +0%
Will Anthropic have the top AI model on May 31? May 11 $5 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $80 in May? May 11 $10 $0 +0%
Will Justin Trudeau be named in Epstein files? May 10 $16 $0 -0%
Will Manchester United win the UEFA Europa League? May 09 $7 +$6 +88%
Will the Denver Nuggets win the Western Conference? May 05 $3 $0 -13%
Will Trump announce Kevin Warsh as next Fed Chair? Apr 30 $16 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 80¢ $39 1h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $39 7d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $39 7d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $38 9d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $38 9d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 36¢ $14 10d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 36¢ $14 10d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 35¢ $28 11d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 35¢ $28 11d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? SELL No 43¢ $17 12d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? BUY No 46¢ $18 12d
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? SELL No 82¢ $37 12d
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? BUY No 79¢ $36 12d
Will Putin meet with Zelenskyy before July? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 359d
Will George Russell be the 2025 Drivers Champion? SELL No 99¢ $2 364d
Will George Russell be the 2025 Drivers Champion? SELL No 99¢ $5 364d
Will federal spending decrease by $250-500b between Q4 2024 and Q2 202 SELL No 99¢ $12 367d
Will the next Prime Minister of Romania be a member of PNL? SELL No 2¢ $0 367d
Will the next Prime Minister of Romania be a member of PNL? SELL No 2¢ $0 367d
Will the next Prime Minister of Romania be a member of PNL? SELL No 2¢ $0 367d
Will the next Prime Minister of Romania be a member of PNL? SELL No 2¢ $0 367d
Will the next Prime Minister of Romania be a member of PNL? SELL No 2¢ $0 367d
Will the next Prime Minister of Romania be a member of PNL? SELL No 2¢ $0 367d
Will the next Prime Minister of Romania be a member of PNL? SELL No 2¢ $0 367d
Will the next Prime Minister of Romania be a member of PNL? SELL No 2¢ $0 367d
Will the next Prime Minister of Romania be a member of PNL? SELL No 2¢ $0 367d
Will federal spending decrease by $250-500b between Q4 2024 and Q2 202 BUY No 99¢ $12 367d
Will the next Prime Minister of Romania be a member of PNL? BUY No 2¢ $0 367d
Will the next Prime Minister of Romania be a member of PNL? BUY No 2¢ $0 367d
Will the next Prime Minister of Romania be a member of PNL? BUY No 2¢ $0 367d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $39.93 · official $40.18 (match) · 228 history records