Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T08:58:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
79 0x79c0…7e02 sports 88 markets active 1h ago coverage 255d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$1,924 (+31%) realized +$1,925 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -3% what you keep after slip
Net edge-3%after slip
Net WR54%break-even
Win rate55%48W / 39L
Drawdown25%max
Avg bet$71per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$39est.
Kalshi-fit68%portable
Net worth$129now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$927
7 days+$1,420
14 days+$1,657
30 days+$1,649
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 57% +$1,135
sports 43% +$734
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +54%
net ROI/market (all)-3.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 +23.5% +11.7% 62% 62% +26.0%
≤30d 26 +27.5% +15.3% 62% 62% +23.6%
≤90d 82 +5.8% -4.3% 54% 54% +19.0%
all 87 +7.0% -3.2% 55% 54% +18.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -3.2% 54% +18.2%
10% -12.4% 53% +6.9%
15% -20.9% 51% -3.4%
20% -28.6% 40% -12.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 33% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +32% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +7% · $-wt +31% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -19% → late +33% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$77 vs −$47 · ×1.64 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.02 per $1 lost it wins $2.02
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

255d coverage
Net worth$129
Realized+$1,925
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses48 / 39
Est. fees paid−$39
Open positions1
Markets (closed)87 / 88
History coverage255d
Avg bet$71
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown25%
Kalshi-fit68%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 87 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will England win on 2026-06-17? No 44¢ 44¢ $130 $129 −$1 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 38 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $404 +$202 +50%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $478 +$725 +152%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $334 +$190 +57%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $203 −$200 -98%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $272 −$270 -99%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $114 +$197 +172%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $144 +$194 +134%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 13 $203 −$200 -99%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $174 +$190 +109%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $221 −$218 -99%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $392 +$187 +48%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $82 −$80 -98%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $608 +$503 +83%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 06 $304 −$300 -99%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 06 $153 +$288 +188%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 04 $151 +$249 +165%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 26 $60 −$59 -98%
Will AS Roma win on 2026-05-24? May 25 $30 +$11 +38%
Spread: AS Roma (-1.5) May 24 $9 +$9 +109%
Spread: AC Milan (-1.5) May 24 $10 −$9 -99%
Will AC Milan win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $30 −$30 -99%
Will Tottenham Hotspur FC win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $14 +$14 +97%
West Ham United FC vs. Leeds United FC: O/U 1.5 May 24 $30 +$20 +64%
Tottenham Hotspur FC vs. Everton FC: O/U 1.5 May 24 $30 −$30 -99%
Will Racing Club de Lens win on 2026-05-22? May 22 $51 +$25 +50%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 19 $20 +$40 +197%
Spread: Stade Rennais FC 1901 (-1.5) May 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Stade Rennais FC 1901 win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-16? May 16 $20 +$15 +73%
Chelsea FC vs. Manchester City FC: Both Teams to Score May 16 $20 −$20 -99%
Spread: Spurs (-5.5) May 16 $25 +$24 +93%
Spurs vs. Timberwolves May 16 $51 +$25 +50%
Spread: Real Madrid CF (-1.5) May 14 $30 +$25 +83%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-05-14? May 14 $101 +$31 +31%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-13? May 13 $15 +$16 +105%
Spread: Paris Saint-Germain FC (-1.5) May 13 $15 +$40 +259%
SD Huesca vs. Real Sociedad de Fútbol B: Both Teams to Score May 12 $15 +$14 +90%
SD Huesca vs. Real Sociedad de Fútbol B: O/U 2.5 May 12 $15 +$17 +114%
Tottenham Hotspur FC vs. Leeds United FC: Both Teams to Score May 11 $10 +$7 +73%
Tottenham Hotspur FC vs. Leeds United FC: O/U 2.5 May 11 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Tottenham Hotspur FC win on 2026-05-11? May 11 $10 −$10 -99%
Parma Calcio 1913 vs. AS Roma: O/U 2.5 May 10 $15 +$15 +101%
Parma Calcio 1913 vs. AS Roma: Both Teams to Score May 10 $15 +$20 +128%
Parma Calcio 1913 vs. AS Roma: O/U 1.5 May 10 $101 +$34 +34%
Crystal Palace FC vs. Everton FC: O/U 2.5 May 10 $15 +$15 +101%
ACF Fiorentina vs. Genoa CFC: Both Teams to Score May 10 $10 −$10 -98%
ACF Fiorentina vs. Genoa CFC: O/U 1.5 May 10 $10 −$10 -98%
Hellas Verona FC vs. Como 1907: Both Teams to Score May 10 $15 −$15 -98%
Hellas Verona FC vs. Como 1907: O/U 2.5 May 10 $15 −$15 -99%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-09? May 09 $101 +$36 +36%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 44¢ $132 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 66¢ $404 26h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 39¢ $341 2d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 39¢ $136 2d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 50¢ $203 3d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 63¢ $334 3d
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY No 73¢ $272 3d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 57¢ $203 4d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY No 42¢ $144 4d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 36¢ $114 4d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY No 47¢ $174 4d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY No 53¢ $221 5d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? BUY No 67¢ $392 6d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY No 32¢ $82 6d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 54¢ $304 6d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 54¢ $304 8d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 55¢ $304 10d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 34¢ $153 12d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 37¢ $151 14d
Spurs vs. Thunder BUY Spurs 39¢ $60 21d
Spread: AC Milan (-1.5) BUY AC Milan 51¢ $10 23d
Will AC Milan win on 2026-05-24? BUY Yes 75¢ $30 23d
Spread: AS Roma (-1.5) BUY AS Roma 47¢ $9 23d
Will AS Roma win on 2026-05-24? BUY Yes 72¢ $30 23d
Will Tottenham Hotspur FC win on 2026-05-24? SELL Yes 100¢ $28 23d
West Ham United FC vs. Leeds United FC: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $50 23d
Will Tottenham Hotspur FC win on 2026-05-24? BUY Yes 50¢ $14 23d
West Ham United FC vs. Leeds United FC: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 60¢ $30 23d
Tottenham Hotspur FC vs. Everton FC: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 51¢ $30 23d
Will Racing Club de Lens win on 2026-05-22? BUY Yes 66¢ $51 26d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $128.52 · official $128.52 (match) · 140 history records