Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T18:21:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
79 0x79c0…ee6b crypto 28 markets active 0h ago coverage 40d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$213 (+7%) realized +$305 · open −$92
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate59%16W / 11L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$113per market
Trades / day3.8pace
Kalshi-fit89%portable
Net worth$486now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 40d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 74% +$59
other 26% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-17.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +25.3% +13.4% 100% 50% +25.3%
≤30d 2 +25.3% +13.4% 100% 50% +25.3%
≤90d 27 -8.3% -17.0% 59% 41% -4.2%
all 27 -8.3% -17.0% 59% 41% -4.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.0% 41% -4.2%
10% -24.9% 30% -13.4%
15% -32.2% 15% -21.7%
20% -38.8% 7% -29.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 37% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
25% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt +6% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -20% → late +3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
4.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$25 vs −$23 · ×1.1 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.6 per $1 lost it wins $1.6
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

40d coverage
Net worth$486
Realized+$305
Unrealized−$92
Win rate (resolved)59%
Wins / losses16 / 11
Open positions1
Markets (closed)27 / 28
History coverage40d
Avg bet$113
Trades / day3.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 27 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Yes 72¢ 60¢ $578 $486 −$92 (-16%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? Jun 17 $40 +$2 +6%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $202 +$91 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET May 10 $312 +$57 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET May 10 $278 −$6 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET May 10 $59 +$5 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET May 10 $146 +$49 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET May 10 $39 +$17 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET May 10 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET May 10 $76 −$73 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET May 10 $314 −$79 -25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET May 10 $149 +$48 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET May 10 $134 +$12 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET May 10 $83 +$48 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET May 10 $138 +$14 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET May 10 $20 +$12 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down on May 10? May 10 $56 +$16 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET May 10 $30 −$24 -79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET May 10 $86 −$16 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET May 10 $63 +$18 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET May 10 $51 +$7 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET May 10 $44 +$2 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET May 10 $32 −$24 -77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET May 10 $44 +$5 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET May 10 $166 −$20 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET May 10 $4 −$1 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET May 10 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET May 10 $9 −$1 -7%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 65¢ $200 17m
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $81 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $302 15h
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? SELL No 96¢ $42 15h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $293 15h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 73¢ $101 17h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 64¢ $101 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $247 37d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Up 68¢ $46 37d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Up 69¢ $46 37d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Up 74¢ $46 37d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Up 78¢ $46 37d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET SELL Up 64¢ $47 37d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $46 37d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET SELL Up 57¢ $51 37d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET SELL Down 44¢ $12 37d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET SELL Down 74¢ $12 37d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Down 77¢ $35 37d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $47 37d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 37d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 37d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 37d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 37d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 37d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 37d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $5 37d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 37d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $100 37d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $45 37d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET SELL Up 66¢ $43 37d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $485.70 · official $485.70 (match) · 168 history records