Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T16:39:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
79 0x79bf…6f87 crypto 34 markets active 2h ago coverage 597d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$1,236 (+2%) realized +$1,243 · open −$7
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -26% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -36% what you keep after slip
Net edge-36%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate35%11W / 20L
Whale WR38%big bets
Drawdown84%max
Avg bet$1,616per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$45est.
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$783now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$350
7 days−$682
14 days−$1,311
30 days−$1,311
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 75% +$1,485
politics 18% +$1,303
sports 5% −$1,716
other 2% +$398
economics 0% −$201
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-33.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -70.7% -73.5% 14% 14% -68.9%
≤30d 15 -55.5% -59.8% 20% 20% -58.2%
≤90d 15 -55.5% -59.8% 20% 20% -58.2%
all 31 -26.5% -33.5% 35% 35% -7.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -33.5% 35% -7.2%
10% -39.9% 35% -16.1%
15% -45.7% 29% -24.2%
20% -51.0% 23% -31.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 30% · top 2 54% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -58% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -26% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 38% (≥$2,875) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +6% → late -57% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
4.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$1,120 vs −$552 · ×2.03 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.12 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

597d coverage
Net worth$783
Realized+$1,243
Unrealized−$7
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses11 / 20
Whale WR (big bets)38%
Est. fees paid−$45
Open positions2
Markets (closed)31 / 34
History coverage597d
Avg bet$1,616
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown84%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 31 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Yes 62¢ 62¢ $400 $397 −$3 (-1%)
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: Korea Republic O/U 1.5 Over 54¢ 54¢ $389 $386 −$4 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 10 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $355 −$350 -99%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $174 +$183 +105%
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 2 Korea Republic? Jun 18 $41 −$40 -97%
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 2 Korea Republic? Jun 18 $36 −$35 -97%
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 1 Korea Republic? Jun 18 $45 −$44 -97%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $200 −$196 -98%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $200 −$200 -100%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 4 Winner Jun 12 $152 −$152 -100%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 2 Winner Jun 12 $81 +$73 +89%
First Blood in Game 3? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -99%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 12 $750 −$487 -65%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 1 Winner Jun 12 $203 −$200 -98%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 12 $97 −$97 -100%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 12 $102 −$102 -100%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $198 +$342 +172%
Will Ethereum hit $4,500.00 by March 31? Feb 15 $2,875 −$2,169 -75%
Ethereum above $3,400 on January 24? Jan 25 $3,698 −$260 -7%
Bitcoin above $103,000 on January 24? Jan 24 $228 +$134 +59%
Bitcoin above $97,000 on January 10? Jan 09 $7,158 −$2,916 -41%
Bitcoin above $94,000 on January 3? Jan 02 $6,882 +$3,640 +53%
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in December? Dec 31 $2,008 +$828 +41%
Yoon out as president of South Korea in 2024? Dec 31 $2,559 +$1,487 +58%
Bitcoin above $97,000 on December 27? Dec 26 $513 +$249 +48%
Bitcoin above $100,000 on December 20? Dec 20 $2,743 +$797 +29%
South Korean President impeached in 2024? Dec 14 $3,176 −$3,176 -100%
Dogecoin above $0.41 on December 6? Dec 02 $814 −$225 -28%
Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November? Nov 30 $4,820 +$1,597 +33%
Will Bitcoin hit $100k today? Nov 23 $9,115 −$5 -0%
No Solana all time high in 2024? Nov 18 $537 −$184 -34%
No change in Fed interest rates after 2024 November meeting? Nov 09 $201 −$201 -100%
Will a Republican win Pennsylvania Presidential Election? Nov 06 $3,966 +$2,992 +75%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: Korea Republic O/U 1.5 BUY Over 54¢ $395 1h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 62¢ $405 1h
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 52¢ $355 37h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 48¢ $174 6d
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 2 Korea Republic? BUY Yes 8¢ $41 6d
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 2 Korea Republic? BUY Yes 7¢ $36 6d
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 1 Korea Republic? BUY Yes 11¢ $45 6d
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 28¢ $200 6d
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 50¢ $200 6d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? AND Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY 42¢ $203 9d
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 4 Winner BUY T1 38¢ $152 12d
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 2 Winner SELL T1 100¢ $154 12d
First Blood in Game 3? BUY T1 54¢ $5 12d
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 2 Winner BUY T1 52¢ $81 12d
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY T1 35¢ $408 12d
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI SELL T1 33¢ $148 12d
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI SELL Hanwha Life Esports 37¢ $54 12d
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY Hanwha Life Esports 68¢ $101 12d
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 1 Winner BUY T1 49¢ $203 12d
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY T1 52¢ $241 12d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 100¢ $540 12d
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? BUY Yes 32¢ $97 13d
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY Yes 17¢ $102 13d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 36¢ $198 13d
Will Ethereum hit $4,500.00 by March 31? SELL Yes 6¢ $706 494d
Will Ethereum hit $4,500.00 by March 31? BUY Yes 26¢ $78 508d
Will Ethereum hit $4,500.00 by March 31? BUY Yes 26¢ $70 508d
Will Ethereum hit $4,500.00 by March 31? BUY Yes 26¢ $1 508d
Will Ethereum hit $4,500.00 by March 31? BUY Yes 26¢ $104 508d
Will Ethereum hit $4,500.00 by March 31? BUY Yes 26¢ $12 508d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $782.65 · official $782.65 (match) · 202 history records