Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T20:38:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
79 0x79b5…df9b sports 61 markets active 2h ago coverage 92d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ net negative once open positions are counted
Total PnL −$12 (-0%) realized +$11 · open −$23
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -4% what you keep after slip
Net edge-4%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate50%29W / 29L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$44per market
Trades / day1.0pace
Fees−$24est.
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$106now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$81
7 days−$25
14 days+$114
30 days+$114
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 55% +$101
other 38% −$73
world 3% +$49
crypto 3% −$83
politics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-4.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 33 -1.3% -10.7% 45% 45% -9.7%
≤30d 45 +5.3% -4.7% 49% 49% -4.0%
≤90d 57 +3.7% -6.2% 49% 47% -8.5%
all 58 +5.5% -4.5% 50% 48% -8.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -4.5% 48% -8.1%
10% -13.7% 48% -16.9%
15% -22.0% 47% -24.9%
20% -29.6% 45% -32.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 15% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +6% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +13% → late -2% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$43 vs −$43 · ×1.01 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.01 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

92d coverage
Net worth$106
Realized+$11
Unrealized−$23
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses29 / 29
Est. fees paid−$24
Open positions3
Markets (closed)58 / 61
History coverage92d
Avg bet$44
Trades / day1.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 58 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? No 50¢ 50¢ $44 $43 −$0 (-1%)
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? No 49¢ 48¢ $43 $43 −$0 (-1%)
Spread: England (-2.5) England 40¢ 19¢ $43 $20 −$22 (-52%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 27 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) Jun 23 $44 +$50 +114%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $46 +$60 +129%
Spread: France (-2.5) Jun 22 $42 −$41 -98%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $46 −$45 -98%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $51 +$58 +114%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 10.5 Jun 21 $51 −$50 -98%
Washington Nationals vs. Tampa Bay Rays Jun 21 $51 −$50 -98%
Spread: Japan (-1.5) Jun 21 $37 +$54 +146%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 9.5 Jun 21 $38 +$37 +97%
Minnesota Twins vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 21 $46 +$50 +109%
UFC Fight Night: Karol Rosa vs. Luana Santos (Women's Bantamweight, Pr Jun 20 $46 −$45 -98%
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Taylor Fritz Jun 20 $45 +$52 +114%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $45 −$45 -98%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $45 −$44 -98%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $57 −$55 -98%
Minnesota Lynx vs. Golden State Valkyries Jun 20 $57 −$57 -100%
Halle Open: Frances Tiafoe vs Felix Auger-Aliassime Jun 19 $53 +$110 +209%
Halle Open: Daniel Altmaier vs Daniil Medvedev Jun 19 $46 +$62 +134%
Will Vitality win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 19 $9 −$9 -98%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $50 −$50 -98%
HSBC Championships: Hamad Medjedovic vs Ugo Humbert Jun 19 $50 −$50 -98%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $58 +$59 +101%
New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 9.5 Jun 18 $104 −$80 -77%
Spread: Canada (-1.5) Jun 18 $58 −$57 -98%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $58 +$63 +109%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $58 −$57 -98%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $46 +$45 +97%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $114 +$79 +70%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $57 −$56 -98%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 17 $57 −$56 -98%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $48 +$46 +97%
Spread: Austria (-1.5) Jun 17 $47 +$55 +119%
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals Jun 16 $58 −$57 -98%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $58 −$57 -98%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $89 +$48 +54%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $132 +$75 +57%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $40 +$60 +152%
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) Jun 15 $44 −$43 -98%
Russia-Ukraine Ceasefire before GTA VI? Jun 15 $1 +$1 +82%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $40 +$45 +114%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $40 +$42 +105%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $44 −$43 -98%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $39 +$48 +124%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $39 −$38 -98%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $1 $0 -6%
Spread: Raptors (-13.5) Apr 04 $44 −$43 -98%
Flames vs. Golden Knights Apr 03 $48 −$48 -100%
Spread: Bucks (-2.5) Apr 01 $8 +$4 +45%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-03-31? Mar 31 $53 −$53 -98%
Blues vs. Sharks Mar 31 $13 +$13 +100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: England (-2.5) BUY England 40¢ $44 1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 49¢ $44 2h
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) BUY Portugal 46¢ $44 5h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? BUY No 50¢ $45 10h
Spread: France (-2.5) BUY Iraq 41¢ $42 25h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 43¢ $46 25h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY No 33¢ $46 30h
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 10.5 BUY Under 49¢ $51 2d
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 46¢ $51 2d
Washington Nationals vs. Tampa Bay Rays BUY Washington Nationals 41¢ $51 2d
Minnesota Twins vs. Arizona Diamondbacks SELL Minnesota Twins 100¢ $96 2d
Spread: Japan (-1.5) BUY Japan 40¢ $37 2d
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 9.5 BUY Under 50¢ $38 2d
Minnesota Twins vs. Arizona Diamondbacks BUY Minnesota Twins 47¢ $46 2d
UFC Fight Night: Karol Rosa vs. Luana Santos (Women's Bantamweight, Pr BUY Karol Rosa 38¢ $46 2d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 43¢ $45 3d
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Taylor Fritz BUY Taylor Fritz 46¢ $45 3d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 36¢ $45 3d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 39¢ $57 3d
Minnesota Lynx vs. Golden State Valkyries BUY Golden State Valkyries 48¢ $0 3d
Minnesota Lynx vs. Golden State Valkyries BUY Golden State Valkyries 48¢ $54 3d
Minnesota Lynx vs. Golden State Valkyries BUY Golden State Valkyries 47¢ $2 3d
Halle Open: Frances Tiafoe vs Felix Auger-Aliassime BUY Frances Tiafoe 32¢ $53 4d
Will Vitality win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 46¢ $9 4d
Halle Open: Daniel Altmaier vs Daniil Medvedev BUY Daniel Altmaier 42¢ $46 4d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 40¢ $50 4d
HSBC Championships: Hamad Medjedovic vs Ugo Humbert BUY Hamad Medjedovic 45¢ $50 4d
New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 9.5 SELL Under 24¢ $6 4d
New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 9.5 SELL Under 24¢ $3 4d
New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 9.5 SELL Under 24¢ $1 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $106.41 · official $106.41 (match) · 118 history records