Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T07:30:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
79 0x79b4…fc3d other 47 markets active 0h ago coverage 11d ⚠
BOTnot copyable Fading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 10d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (313 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$16,550 (+5%) realized +$16,820 · open −$270
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -27% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -50% what you keep after slip
Net edge-50%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate58%35W / 25L
Whale WR87%big bets
Drawdown94%max
Avg bet$7,741per market
Trades / day313.5pace
Fees−$1,639est.
Kalshi-fit29%portable
Net worth$47,579now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 11d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 50% +$11,176
sports 49% +$11,439
crypto 1% +$9
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (313 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-34.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 28 -20.6% -28.2% 61% 7% +1.9%
≤30d 60 -27.3% -34.3% 58% 5% -7.0%
≤90d 60 -27.3% -34.3% 58% 5% -7.0%
all 60 -27.3% -34.3% 58% 5% -7.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover313.5 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -34.3% 5% -7.0%
10% -40.6% 5% -15.9%
15% ← realistic here -46.3% 5% -24.0%
20% -51.6% 5% -31.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 41% · top 2 70% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
91% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -27% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 87% (≥$4,942) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +4% → late -59% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
30.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$1,235 vs −$1,748 · ×0.71 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.03 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

11d coverage
Net worth$47,579
Realized+$16,820
Unrealized−$270
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses35 / 25
Whale WR (big bets)87%
Est. fees paid−$1,639
Open positions5
Markets (closed)60 / 47
History coverage11d ⚠
Avg bet$7,741
Trades / day313.5
Drawdown94%
Kalshi-fit29%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 60 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 89¢ 88¢ $40,752 $40,406 −$346 (-1%)
Exact Score: Any Other Score? No 67¢ 68¢ $4,300 $4,364 +$64 (+1%)
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 3 Sweden? No 98¢ 98¢ $2,262 $2,271 +$9 (+0%)
Exact Score: Any Other Score? No 79¢ 80¢ $359 $361 +$2 (+1%)
Exact Score: Ecuador 1 - 2 Curaçao? No 98¢ 99¢ $176 $176 +$1 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 19 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the Chicago Bulls win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 20 $593 −$1,201 -202%
Will the Phoenix Suns win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 20 $593 −$1,201 -202%
Will the Indiana Pacers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 20 $593 −$1,201 -202%
Will the Toronto Raptors win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 20 $593 −$1,201 -202%
Will the Memphis Grizzlies win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 20 $593 −$1,201 -202%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 20 $593 −$1,201 -202%
Will the Golden State Warriors win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 20 $593 −$1,201 -202%
Will the Miami Heat win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 20 $593 −$1,201 -202%
Will the Sacramento Kings win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 20 $593 −$1,201 -202%
Will the Milwaukee Bucks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 20 $593 −$1,201 -202%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 20 $973 −$1,201 -123%
Will the Brooklyn Nets win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 20 $973 −$1,201 -123%
Will the Dallas Mavericks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 20 $973 −$1,201 -123%
Will the Los Angeles Clippers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 20 $973 −$1,201 -123%
Will the Portland Trail Blazers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 20 $973 −$1,201 -123%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 20 $973 −$1,201 -123%
Will the Orlando Magic win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 20 $973 −$1,201 -123%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 20 $973 −$1,201 -123%
Exact Score: Scotland 1 - 3 Morocco? Jun 20 $4,812 +$190 +4%
Exact Score: Scotland 1 - 1 Morocco? Jun 20 $4,593 +$143 +3%
Exact Score: Scotland 1 - 2 Morocco? Jun 20 $17,799 +$641 +4%
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 1 Morocco? Jun 19 $1,731 +$21 +1%
Exact Score: United States 1 - 1 Australia? Jun 19 $17,599 +$1,739 +10%
Exact Score: Brazil 0 - 1 Haiti? Jun 19 $2,566 +$10 +0%
Exact Score: United States 2 - 1 Australia? Jun 19 $17,599 +$200 +1%
Exact Score: United States 2 - 2 Australia? Jun 19 $7,733 +$35 +0%
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 0 Morocco? Jun 19 $123 $0 -0%
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 0 Haiti? Jun 19 $3,954 +$9 +0%
Exact Score: United States 3 - 2 Australia? Jun 19 $7,152 +$15 +0%
Exact Score: United States 1 - 2 Australia? Jun 19 $2,777 +$30 +1%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 19 $317 +$3 +1%
Will the Carolina Hurricanes win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Jun 15 $10,960 +$12,946 +118%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $11,031 +$304 +3%
Will Alex Pereira win by KO or TKO? Jun 15 $12,106 +$8,054 +66%
Will Justin Gaethje win by KO or TKO? Jun 14 $10 $0 -0%
Will Ciryl Gane win by KO or TKO? Jun 14 $13 $0 +3%
Will Ilia Topuria win by KO or TKO? Jun 14 $272 +$18 +6%
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Oksana Selekhmeteva vs Kamilla Rakhimo Jun 13 $313 $0 +0%
Will the Vegas Golden Knights win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Jun 12 $3,656 −$9,329 -255%
Stuttgart Open: Mattia Bellucci vs Taylor Fritz Jun 12 $44,083 +$445 +1%
Stuttgart Open: Jiri Lehecka vs Frances Tiafoe Jun 12 $3,555 +$39 +1%
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Marcos Giron Jun 12 $49,500 +$500 +1%
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 2 South Africa? Jun 11 $9,301 +$85 +1%
Exact Score: Mexico 0 - 1 South Africa? Jun 11 $963 +$9 +1%
Exact Score: Mexico 3 - 1 South Africa? Jun 11 $4,942 +$110 +2%
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 3 South Africa? Jun 11 $1,007 +$5 +0%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 11 $23,102 +$17,513 +76%
Exact Score: Mexico 3 - 0 South Africa? Jun 11 $1,874 +$36 +2%
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 0 South Africa? Jun 11 $2,291 +$28 +1%
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 1 South Africa? Jun 11 $1,225 +$14 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY No 67¢ $856 9m
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY No 67¢ $20 11m
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY No 67¢ $1,374 33m
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY No 67¢ $39 40m
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY No 67¢ $6 47m
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY No 67¢ $1,414 47m
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY No 67¢ $24 57m
Exact Score: Ecuador 1 - 2 Curaçao? BUY No 98¢ $176 1h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY No 67¢ $566 1h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY No 79¢ $361 1h
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 3 Sweden? BUY No 98¢ $39 1h
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 3 Sweden? BUY No 98¢ $195 1h
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 3 Sweden? BUY No 98¢ $2,028 1h
Exact Score: Scotland 1 - 2 Morocco? SELL No 90¢ $37 9h
Exact Score: Scotland 1 - 2 Morocco? SELL No 90¢ $13 9h
Exact Score: Scotland 1 - 2 Morocco? SELL No 90¢ $41 9h
Exact Score: Scotland 1 - 2 Morocco? SELL No 90¢ $1 9h
Exact Score: Scotland 1 - 2 Morocco? SELL No 90¢ $142 9h
Exact Score: Scotland 1 - 2 Morocco? SELL No 90¢ $4 9h
Exact Score: Scotland 1 - 2 Morocco? SELL No 90¢ $2 9h
Exact Score: Scotland 1 - 2 Morocco? SELL No 90¢ $3 9h
Exact Score: Scotland 1 - 2 Morocco? SELL No 90¢ $50 9h
Exact Score: Scotland 1 - 2 Morocco? SELL No 90¢ $2 9h
Exact Score: Scotland 1 - 2 Morocco? SELL No 90¢ $49 9h
Exact Score: Scotland 1 - 2 Morocco? SELL No 90¢ $117 9h
Exact Score: Scotland 1 - 2 Morocco? SELL No 90¢ $1 9h
Exact Score: Scotland 1 - 2 Morocco? SELL No 90¢ $229 9h
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 1 Morocco? SELL No 85¢ $1,431 9h
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 1 Morocco? SELL No 85¢ $181 9h
Exact Score: Scotland 1 - 2 Morocco? SELL No 90¢ $5 9h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $47,578.62 · official $47,578.62 (match) · 3500 history records