Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T19:24:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
79 0x79b3…3ac9 other 14 markets active 1h ago coverage 116d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$1,049 (-36%) realized −$1,016 · open −$33
Gross ROI / mkt -25% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -32% what you keep after slip
Net edge-32%after slip
Net WR15%break-even
Win rate15%2W / 11L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$206per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$14est.
Kalshi-fit50%portable
Net worth$117now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$257
7 days−$257
14 days−$506
30 days−$569
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 74% −$1,412
sports 26% +$64
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +15%
net ROI/market (all)-31.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -43.4% -48.8% 0% 0% -48.8%
≤30d 11 -25.0% -32.2% 9% 9% -39.2%
≤90d 11 -25.0% -32.2% 9% 9% -39.2%
all 13 -24.7% -31.9% 15% 15% -53.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -31.9% 15% -53.2%
10% -38.4% 15% -57.7%
15% -44.3% 15% -61.8%
20% -49.8% 15% -65.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 85% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -33% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -25% · $-wt -48% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +54% → late -92% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$283 vs −$171 · ×1.66 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.3 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

116d coverage
Net worth$117
Realized−$1,016
Unrealized−$33
Win rate (resolved)15%
Wins / losses2 / 11
Est. fees paid−$14
Open positions1
Markets (closed)13 / 14
History coverage116d
Avg bet$206
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit50%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 13 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $150 $117 −$33 (-22%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 29 $592 −$257 -43%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 17 $83 −$83 -100%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $62 −$62 -100%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $103 −$103 -100%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 14 $104 −$104 -100%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $83 −$83 -100%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $104 −$104 -100%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $310 −$43 -14%
Will Gujarat Titans win the 2026 Indian Premier League? Jun 13 $109 −$109 -100%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 13 $103 −$103 -100%
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? Jun 13 $83 +$482 +582%
Will New Zealand win the 2026 ICC Men’s T20 World Cup? Mar 08 $830 −$830 -100%
T20 World Cup: England vs India Mar 05 $155 +$84 +54%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $335 1h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $73 1h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $520 1h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $156 8d
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $103 13d
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes $62 13d
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY Yes 13¢ $83 13d
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes $52 15d
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes $52 15d
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes $31 15d
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes $52 15d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 19¢ $267 15d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 23¢ $207 15d
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $565 15d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 17¢ $103 16d
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? BUY Yes 14¢ $83 16d
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes $104 16d
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? BUY Yes 32¢ $103 17d
Will Gujarat Titans win the 2026 Indian Premier League? BUY Yes $5 29d
Will Gujarat Titans win the 2026 Indian Premier League? BUY Yes $52 29d
Will Gujarat Titans win the 2026 Indian Premier League? BUY Yes $52 29d
Will New Zealand win the 2026 ICC Men’s T20 World Cup? BUY Yes 18¢ $100 113d
Will New Zealand win the 2026 ICC Men’s T20 World Cup? BUY Yes 31¢ $500 113d
Will New Zealand win the 2026 ICC Men’s T20 World Cup? BUY Yes 31¢ $180 113d
Will New Zealand win the 2026 ICC Men’s T20 World Cup? BUY Yes 31¢ $50 113d
T20 World Cup: England vs India BUY England 16¢ $5 116d
T20 World Cup: England vs India SELL England 13¢ $239 116d
T20 World Cup: England vs India BUY England $50 116d
T20 World Cup: England vs India BUY England $50 116d
T20 World Cup: England vs India BUY England 23¢ $50 116d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $117.11 · official $117.11 (match) · 49 history records