Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T15:26:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
79 0x79b3…d6ef sports 595 markets active 3h ago coverage 148d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$75 (+1%) realized +$75 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR63%break-even
Win rate63%373W / 220L
Drawdown93%max
Avg bet$9per market
Trades / day4.1pace
Fees−$19est.
Kalshi-fit57%portable
Net worth$30now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$83
7 days−$97
14 days−$131
30 days−$112
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 50% +$2
other 49% +$28
world 1% +$20
crypto 0% −$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +63%
net ROI/market (all)-6.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 39 -0.2% -9.7% 62% 59% -30.8%
≤30d 102 -6.1% -15.1% 60% 59% -20.8%
≤90d 382 -0.7% -10.1% 61% 61% -12.6%
all 593 +3.0% -6.8% 63% 63% -8.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.8% 63% -8.8%
10% -15.7% 59% -17.5%
15% -23.8% 50% -25.5%
20% -31.3% 39% -32.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +7% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$8 · ×0.6 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.02 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

148d coverage
Net worth$30
Realized+$75
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)63%
Wins / losses373 / 220
Est. fees paid−$19
Open positions2
Markets (closed)593 / 595
History coverage148d
Avg bet$9
Trades / day4.1
Drawdown93%
Kalshi-fit57%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 593 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Yes 77¢ 76¢ $25 $25 −$0 (-1%)
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5 Over 78¢ 78¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $40 +$9 +23%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $5 +$3 +65%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $14 +$7 +50%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 16 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $40 −$40 -100%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $56 −$56 -100%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $4 +$5 +124%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $15 +$6 +38%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $11 −$11 -100%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $15 +$14 +93%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $6 −$6 -100%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $5 +$4 +79%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $12 +$1 +8%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 7.5 Jun 14 $3 +$2 +50%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 6.5 Jun 14 $5 +$2 +40%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Germany O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $8 +$2 +27%
Australia vs. Türkiye: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $10 +$3 +34%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $7 +$4 +55%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Switzerland O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $12 −$12 -100%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $25 −$25 -100%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $8 +$3 +40%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $3 +$3 +109%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $5 +$6 +114%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 Jun 12 $8 +$3 +42%
Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Bosnia-Herzegovina O/U 0.5 Jun 12 $5 +$3 +62%
Libema Open: Thijs Boogaard vs Yibing Wu Jun 12 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $4 +$7 +165%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 1.5 Jun 12 $7 +$3 +42%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $11 +$5 +44%
Blanch vs. O'Connell: Match O/U 22.5 Jun 11 $4 +$3 +73%
Portugal vs. Nigeria: Both Teams to Score Jun 11 $4 +$4 +97%
England vs. Costa Rica: O/U 1.5 Jun 11 $7 +$1 +18%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-09? Jun 10 $4 −$4 -100%
Iraq vs. Venezuela: Both Teams to Score Jun 10 $4 −$4 -100%
Argentina vs. Iceland: O/U 2.5 Jun 10 $4 +$2 +55%
Armenia vs. Moldova: Both Teams to Score Jun 09 $5 +$5 +93%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-06? Jun 09 $6 +$2 +34%
Will Azerbaijan win on 2026-06-05? Jun 06 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Georgia win on 2026-06-05? Jun 06 $6 +$2 +27%
Will Slovenia win on 2026-06-04? Jun 05 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-04? Jun 05 $3 −$3 -100%
Spain vs. Iraq: O/U 2.5 Jun 05 $6 −$6 -100%
Will France win on 2026-06-04? Jun 05 $7 −$7 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 78¢ $5 2h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $25 3h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 80¢ $15 18h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 60¢ $5 19h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 81¢ $25 19h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 66¢ $14 29h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 68¢ $10 42h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 72¢ $15 42h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 44¢ $4 42h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 68¢ $30 42h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 62¢ $20 2d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Natus Vincere 65¢ $6 2d
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 51¢ $3 2d
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY TheMongolz 61¢ $4 2d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 62¢ $35 2d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 73¢ $4 2d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 51¢ $5 2d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 51¢ $10 2d
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 60¢ $7 2d
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Ilia Topuria 80¢ $11 2d
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 7.5 BUY Over 66¢ $3 2d
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 6.5 BUY Over 71¢ $5 2d
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 92¢ $12 2d
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 55¢ $5 3d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 48¢ $6 3d
Germany vs. Curaçao: Germany O/U 2.5 BUY Over 78¢ $8 3d
Germany vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score BUY No 70¢ $5 3d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $7 3d
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Switzerland O/U 1.5 BUY Over 74¢ $10 3d
Australia vs. Türkiye: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 49¢ $4 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $29.87 · official $29.87 (match) · 1239 history records