Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T10:00:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
79 0x79af…92dc other 33 markets active 2h ago coverage 552d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$48 (-9%) realized −$48 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate0%0W / 33L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$16per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit45%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 74% −$48
other 20% $0
politics 5% $0
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-15.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 2 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 3 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
all 33 -6.1% -15.1% 0% 0% -17.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.1% 0% -17.7%
10% -23.2% 0% -25.6%
15% -30.6% 0% -32.8%
20% -37.4% 0% -39.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top —% · top 2 —% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% too few recent
Fragile wins
—% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -13% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
— vs −$3 no data
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

552d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$48
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)0%
Wins / losses0 / 33
Open positions0
Markets (closed)33 / 33
History coverage552d
Avg bet$16
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit45%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 33 Trades
no open positions (2 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 16 $8 $0 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 25 $9 $0 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 27 $10 $0 -0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Feb 24 $1 $0 +0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 25 $1 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Chargers win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 25 $8 $0 -0%
Will the Falcons win the NFC Championship? Nov 26 $10 $0 -0%
Will the San Francisco 49ers win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 28 $1 $0 +0%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2025 World Series? Aug 14 $1 $0 +0%
Will Bayer Leverkusen win the UEFA Champions League? Aug 14 $13 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Texans win Super Bowl 2026? Aug 13 $9 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2025 World Series? Jul 21 $9 $0 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 14 $9 $0 -0%
Will Red Star Belgrade win the UEFA Champions League? Jul 14 $0 $0 +0%
Will Benfica win the UEFA Champions League? Jul 14 $301 $0 +0%
Will the Seattle Seahawks win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 11 $1 $0 +0%
Will the Seattle Kraken win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Jul 11 $7 $0 +0%
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2025 World Series? Jun 13 $9 $0 -0%
Wolverhampton Wanderers win the Premier League? Jun 13 $1 $0 +0%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2025 World Series? Jun 08 $1 $0 +0%
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2025 World Series? Jun 06 $9 $0 -0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2025 NBA Finals? Jun 06 $6 $0 -1%
Diamondbacks vs. Braves Jun 04 $48 −$48 -100%
Will Australia win Eurovision 2025? May 14 $7 $0 -0%
Will Lille win the UEFA Champions League? May 14 $1 $0 +0%
Brentford wins the Premier League? May 14 $24 $0 -0%
Will no new pope be elected in 2025? May 08 $7 $0 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Penguins win the 2025 Stanley Cup? May 08 $1 $0 +0%
Will Netherlands win Eurovision 2025? May 07 $1 $0 +0%
Will Luxembourg win Eurovision 2025? Apr 21 $6 $0 -0%
Will Borussia Dortmund win the UEFA Champions League? Mar 28 $7 $0 -0%
Will the Montreal Canadiens win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Mar 25 $6 $0 +0%
Will the Packers win Super Bowl 2025? Jan 05 $6 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $8 1h
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $8 1h
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $9 21d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $9 21d
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $10 49d
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $10 49d
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 6¢ $1 111d
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 111d
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 4¢ $0 142d
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 4¢ $1 142d
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 4¢ $0 142d
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 142d
Will the Los Angeles Chargers win Super Bowl 2026? SELL No 96¢ $8 172d
Will the Los Angeles Chargers win Super Bowl 2026? BUY No 96¢ $8 172d
Will the Falcons win the NFC Championship? SELL No 100¢ $10 201d
Will the Falcons win the NFC Championship? BUY No 100¢ $10 201d
Will the San Francisco 49ers win Super Bowl 2026? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 230d
Will the San Francisco 49ers win Super Bowl 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 231d
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2025 World Series? SELL Yes 3¢ $0 305d
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2025 World Series? SELL Yes 3¢ $1 305d
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2025 World Series? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 305d
Will the Houston Texans win Super Bowl 2026? SELL No 98¢ $9 306d
Will the Houston Texans win Super Bowl 2026? BUY No 98¢ $9 306d
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2025 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $9 330d
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2025 World Series? BUY No 100¢ $9 330d
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win Super Bowl 2026? SELL No 98¢ $9 336d
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win Super Bowl 2026? BUY No 98¢ $9 336d
Will the Seattle Seahawks win Super Bowl 2026? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 339d
Will the Seattle Seahawks win Super Bowl 2026? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 339d
Will the Seattle Seahawks win Super Bowl 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 340d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 96 history records