Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T05:24:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

79
0x79ad…4eed
weather · 57 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$234 -3%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$214 · open −$20
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP weather specialist
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$190
Realized−$214
Unrealized−$20
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses25 / 23
Open positions9
Markets (closed)48 / 57
History coverage146d
Avg bet$151
Trades / day2.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%
Chart Positions 9 History 48 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$229
7 days+$319
14 days−$24
30 days−$24
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 14? No 80¢ 82¢ $62 $64 +$2 (+3%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 15? Yes 15¢ 16¢ $31 $35 +$4 (+13%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 15? Yes 12¢ 8¢ $48 $35 −$14 (-28%)
Will Valve add Cache to the Map Pool by June 30, 2026? Yes 6¢ 3¢ $29 $18 −$11 (-39%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 14? No 64¢ 64¢ $18 $18 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 15? Yes 15¢ 26¢ $9 $16 +$6 (+70%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 15? Yes 5¢ 1¢ $8 $3 −$6 (-68%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 14? Yes 19¢ 18¢ $2 $1 −$0 (-5%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C on June 15? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+44%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 32°C or higher on June 15? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+71%)
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $343 $0 −$343 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 13? Jun 13 $2,001 +$162 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 13? Jun 13 $4 −$1 -28%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 13? Jun 13 $438 +$2 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 13? Jun 13 $701 +$4 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 13? Jun 13 $406 +$2 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 12? Jun 12 $19 +$31 +169%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 12? Jun 12 $1,925 +$21 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 12? Jun 12 $32 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 21°C on June 11? Jun 12 $534 +$8 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 10? Jun 10 $14 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on June 10? Jun 10 $263 +$25 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 10? Jun 10 $264 +$11 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 10? Jun 10 $85 −$5 -6%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 86-87°F on June 9? Jun 10 $107 +$4 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 20°C on June 10? Jun 10 $74 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C or higher on June 9? Jun 09 $66 +$3 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 9? Jun 09 $238 +$11 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 8? Jun 09 $288 +$15 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 7? Jun 08 $53 +$11 +21%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 7? Jun 08 $55 +$6 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 7? Jun 08 $163 +$8 +5%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 03 $357 −$343 -96%
Will Valve add Cache to the Map Pool by April 30, 2026? May 11 $156 −$156 -100%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Pope Leo XIV by April 30, 2026? May 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Trump’s Greenland Tariffs go into effect for Denmark by Feburary Apr 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 18, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Jan 18 $20 −$15 -76%
Solana Up or Down - January 18, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Jan 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 18, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jan 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 18, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jan 18 $16 +$2 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 18, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jan 18 $3 −$3 -100%
XRP Up or Down - January 18, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jan 18 $6 −$6 -100%
Solana Up or Down - January 18, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jan 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 18, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jan 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 18, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jan 18 $30 +$4 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 18, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jan 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 18, 1PM ET Jan 18 $15 +$1 +4%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 18, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Jan 18 $1 +$2 +219%
XRP Up or Down - January 18, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Jan 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 18, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jan 18 $1 −$1 -100%
XRP Up or Down - January 18, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jan 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 18, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Jan 18 $1 +$3 +254%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 18, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jan 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Solana Up or Down - January 18, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jan 18 $1 −$1 -100%
XRP Up or Down - January 18, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jan 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 18, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jan 18 $11 −$1 -13%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 18, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jan 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 18, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jan 18 $24 +$11 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 18, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jan 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
weather 92% +$311
crypto 6% −$371
other 2% −$168
politics 0% −$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 15? BUY Yes 14¢ $0 5m
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 15? BUY Yes 4¢ $0 6m
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 15? BUY Yes 14¢ $0 6m
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 15? BUY Yes 14¢ $1 6m
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 15? BUY Yes 14¢ $1 7m
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 15? BUY Yes 14¢ $1 7m
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 15? BUY Yes 14¢ $2 7m
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 15? BUY Yes 14¢ $8 7m
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 15? BUY Yes 5¢ $0 7m
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 15? BUY Yes 5¢ $3 7m
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 15? BUY Yes 5¢ $0 7m
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 15? BUY Yes 14¢ $0 7m
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 15? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 7m
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 15? BUY Yes 5¢ $0 7m
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 15? BUY Yes 5¢ $0 7m
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 15? BUY Yes 5¢ $2 7m
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 15? BUY Yes 2¢ $2 7m
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 14? BUY No 79¢ $31 8m
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 14? BUY No 62¢ $0 8m
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 14? BUY No 80¢ $1 8m
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 14? BUY No 80¢ $31 8m
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 14? BUY No 64¢ $13 9m
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 14? BUY No 63¢ $5 10m
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 14? BUY Yes 19¢ $2 12m
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C on June 15? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 19m
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 15? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 19m
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 15? BUY Yes 14¢ $1 19m
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 15? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 19m
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 15? BUY Yes 14¢ $1 19m
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C on June 15? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 19m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +17%
net ROI/market (all)-32.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 21 +10.6% +0.1% 90% 14% -5.8%
≤30d 22 +5.6% -4.5% 86% 14% -9.8%
≤90d 25 -7.1% -15.9% 76% 12% -11.6%
all 48 -25.4% -32.5% 52% 17% -11.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover2.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -32.5% 17% -11.8%
10% -39.0% 8% -20.3%
15% -44.9% 8% -28.0%
20% -50.3% 6% -35.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $190.23 · official $190.23 (match) · 403 history records