Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T04:09:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
79 0x79ab…3f89 world 6 markets active 1h ago coverage 12d
RISKYcopy with care world specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$24 (+3%) realized −$110 · open +$134
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate60%3W / 2L
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$136per market
Trades / day1.0pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$183now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 12d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
world 56% +$5
sports 38% +$20
other 6% +$134
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-7.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +0.7% -8.9% 33% 0% -8.7%
≤30d 5 +1.9% -7.8% 60% 0% -6.6%
≤90d 5 +1.9% -7.8% 60% 0% -6.6%
all 5 +1.9% -7.8% 60% 0% -6.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.8% 0% -6.6%
10% -16.6% 0% -15.6%
15% -24.7% 0% -23.7%
20% -32.1% 0% -31.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 81% · top 2 94% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$8 vs — no data
Profit factor
— no data
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

12d coverage
Net worth$183
Realized−$110
Unrealized+$134
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses3 / 2
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)5 / 6
History coverage12d
Avg bet$136
Trades / day1.0
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 5 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US x Cuba diplomatic meeting by June 30? Yes 7¢ 26¢ $49 $183 +$134 (+271%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Russia capture Rai-Oleksandrivka by June 30? Jun 23 $45 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. invade Colombia in 2026? Jun 22 $36 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture Dovha Balka by June 30? Jun 22 $69 +$1 +2%
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Virtus.pro (-3.5) vs KOLESIE (+3.5) Jun 11 $308 +$20 +6%
Will Russia capture all of Prymorske by September 30, 2026? Jun 11 $305 +$3 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US x Cuba diplomatic meeting by June 30? BUY Yes 7¢ $49 49m
Will Russia capture Rai-Oleksandrivka by June 30? SELL Yes 6¢ $45 52m
Will Russia capture Rai-Oleksandrivka by June 30? BUY Yes 6¢ $45 1h
Will the U.S. invade Colombia in 2026? SELL Yes 5¢ $36 18h
Will the U.S. invade Colombia in 2026? BUY Yes 5¢ $18 19h
Will the U.S. invade Colombia in 2026? BUY Yes 5¢ $18 19h
Will Russia capture Dovha Balka by June 30? SELL Yes 10¢ $71 20h
Will Russia capture Dovha Balka by June 30? BUY Yes 10¢ $68 20h
Will Russia capture Dovha Balka by June 30? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 21h
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Virtus.pro (-3.5) vs KOLESIE (+3.5) BUY KOLESIE 94¢ $308 11d
Will Russia capture all of Prymorske by September 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $308 11d
Will Russia capture all of Prymorske by September 30, 2026? BUY No 95¢ $305 11d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $182.78 · official $154.66 · 13 history records