Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T06:00:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
79 0x79aa…1168 sports 85 markets active 1h ago coverage 25d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$5,898 (-30%) realized −$5,696 · open −$202
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -18% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -31% what you keep after slip
Net edge-31%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate36%27W / 48L
Whale WR30%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$231per market
Trades / day8.4pace
Fees−$155est.
Kalshi-fit61%portable
Net worth$1,682now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1,148
7 days−$1,324
14 days−$4,236
30 days−$5,264
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 55% −$3,073
other 37% −$1,662
crypto 8% −$732
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-25.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 25 +12.9% +2.1% 56% 56% -28.9%
≤30d 75 -17.7% -25.5% 36% 32% -37.1%
≤90d 75 -17.7% -25.5% 36% 32% -37.1%
all 75 -17.7% -25.5% 36% 32% -37.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -25.5% 32% -37.1%
10% -32.6% 32% -43.1%
15% -39.2% 31% -48.6%
20% -45.1% 27% -53.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 23% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -30% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -18% · $-wt -30% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 30% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -18% → late -18% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$172 vs −$206 · ×0.83 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.47 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

25d coverage
Net worth$1,682
Realized−$5,696
Unrealized−$202
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses27 / 48
Whale WR (big bets)30%
Est. fees paid−$155
Open positions8
Markets (closed)75 / 85
History coverage25d
Avg bet$231
Trades / day8.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit61%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 75 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Yes 64¢ 64¢ $400 $403 +$3 (+1%)
Spread: Germany (-1.5) Germany 39¢ 40¢ $387 $401 +$15 (+4%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 7¢ $350 $266 −$84 (-24%)
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $290 $163 −$127 (-44%)
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Over 47¢ 48¢ $120 $123 +$3 (+2%)
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score Yes 59¢ 60¢ $118 $119 +$1 (+1%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 18¢ $100 $111 +$10 (+10%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 14¢ $119 $96 −$23 (-20%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 32 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $128 +$400 +313%
Brazil vs. Haiti: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $102 +$125 +123%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $132 +$89 +67%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $602 +$328 +54%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $152 −$150 -99%
Spread: Canada (-1.5) Jun 19 $399 +$356 +89%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 17 $1 −$1 -99%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $558 −$550 -99%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $148 −$146 -99%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Uruguay O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $177 −$175 -99%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Tunisia O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $200 +$124 +62%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $697 −$687 -99%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $154 +$127 +82%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Germany O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $101 +$66 +65%
Ecuador to score first vs. Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 14 $112 −$110 -99%
Australia vs. Türkiye: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $51 +$96 +188%
Spread: Türkiye (-1.5) Jun 14 $10 +$4 +43%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Côte d'Ivoire O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $102 −$100 -98%
Spread: Spurs (-4.5) Jun 14 $98 +$72 +73%
Haiti vs. Scotland: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $209 +$229 +109%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $241 −$237 -98%
Scotland to score first vs. Haiti? Jun 14 $303 +$138 +46%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $102 +$107 +105%
Haiti vs. Scotland: Scotland O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $303 −$300 -99%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 13 $1,141 −$1,128 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 13 $154 −$150 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 13 $420 −$400 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 13 $511 −$500 -98%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 4.5 Jun 13 $302 −$299 -99%
Will Málaga CF win on 2026-06-14? Jun 13 $254 −$250 -98%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $73 −$71 -98%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 12 $102 −$13 -13%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $135 −$132 -98%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $105 −$72 -69%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 11 $51 −$2 -5%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $105 −$6 -6%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $55 −$54 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 11 $6 −$6 -94%
Will Alexander Zverev be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? Jun 11 $51 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 11 $52 −$50 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 11 $132 +$473 +358%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 11 $123 +$73 +60%
Will the Seattle Mariners win the 2026 World Series? Jun 11 $60 −$2 -3%
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2026 World Series? Jun 11 $87 −$20 -23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 11 $115 −$110 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 11 $82 −$82 -100%
Will Taylor Fritz be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? Jun 11 $312 −$201 -65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 11 $61 +$19 +31%
Will Malaga CF achieve promotion from LALIGA 2 to LALIGA for the 2026- Jun 11 $312 +$5 +2%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $85 +$66 +78%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 47¢ $122 40m
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score SELL No 100¢ $528 44m
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score BUY No 21¢ $102 1h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score BUY No 48¢ $25 4h
Brazil vs. Haiti: 1st Half O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $227 4h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 59¢ $120 5h
Brazil vs. Haiti: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 44¢ $102 5h
Spread: Germany (-1.5) BUY Germany 39¢ $394 10h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 64¢ $404 10h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 59¢ $132 10h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 96¢ $930 10h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $602 29h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 55¢ $152 29h
Spread: Canada (-1.5) SELL Canada 100¢ $755 29h
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) BUY Bosnia and Herzegovina 64¢ $1 3d
Spread: Canada (-1.5) BUY Canada 52¢ $399 3d
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) AND Spread: Portugal (-1.5) AND Spread: Can BUY 4¢ $49 3d
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 51¢ $558 3d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 64¢ $148 4d
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Uruguay O/U 1.5 BUY Over 55¢ $177 5d
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Tunisia O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $324 5d
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 53¢ $393 5d
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $281 5d
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 52¢ $304 5d
Germany vs. Curaçao: Germany O/U 3.5 BUY Over 60¢ $101 5d
Ecuador to score first vs. Côte d'Ivoire? BUY Yes 51¢ $112 5d
Spread: Türkiye (-1.5) SELL Australia 100¢ $14 5d
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Côte d'Ivoire O/U 0.5 BUY Under 41¢ $102 6d
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 54¢ $154 6d
Australia vs. Türkiye: Both Teams to Score BUY No 34¢ $51 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,681.90 · official $1,681.90 (match) · 247 history records