Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T07:40:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
79 0x79a9…fe20 crypto 155 markets active 1d ago coverage 13d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$3 (+1%) realized +$3 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate69%107W / 48L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1per market
Trades / day12.5pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$2now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days+$1
14 days−$0
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-10.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 98 +1.6% -8.1% 71% 42% -9.1%
≤30d 155 -1.1% -10.5% 69% 44% -10.0%
≤90d 155 -1.1% -10.5% 69% 44% -10.0%
all 155 -1.1% -10.5% 69% 44% -10.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover12.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.5% 44% -10.0%
10% -19.1% 27% -18.6%
15% -26.9% 20% -26.5%
20% -34.1% 13% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
27% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.44 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.98 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

13d coverage
Net worth$2
Realized+$3
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)69%
Wins / losses107 / 48
Open positions0
Markets (closed)155 / 155
History coverage13d
Avg bet$1
Trades / day12.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 155 Trades
no open positions (41 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$1 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$2 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 16 $2 +$1 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +138%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 14 $1 +$4 +347%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 13 $1 +$1 +88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 13 $1 +$3 +237%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 13 $2 $0 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +14%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $2 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $5 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET BUY Up 78¢ $5 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Down 93¢ $5 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $5 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET BUY Down 74¢ $5 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $3 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $2 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $5 39h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 40h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $1 40h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Up 86¢ $5 40h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Down 89¢ $5 40h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET BUY Down 72¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET BUY Down 91¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET BUY Down 81¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET BUY Down 83¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET BUY Down 80¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET BUY Down 89¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Up 78¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Down 21¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Up 89¢ $1 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2.08 · official $2.08 (match) · 271 history records