Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T08:19:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
79 0x79a8…bb66 world 234 markets active 2h ago coverage 206d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$264 (+0%) realized +$494 · open −$230
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR26%break-even
Win rate54%119W / 100L
Whale WR57%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$401per market
Trades / day9.9pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit72%portable
Net worth$2,785now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$61
14 days−$1,221
30 days−$1,374
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 69% +$884
finance 21% −$22
other 8% −$127
politics 1% −$128
sports 1% +$57
crypto 1% −$498
tech 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +26%
net ROI/market (all)-5.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤30d 63 -6.6% -15.5% 38% 24% -14.0%
≤90d 188 +4.5% -5.5% 51% 25% -9.8%
all 219 +4.5% -5.5% 54% 26% -9.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.5% 26% -9.1%
10% -14.5% 16% -17.8%
15% -22.8% 12% -25.8%
20% -30.3% 11% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 26% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
52% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 57% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +3% → late +6% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
5.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$64 vs −$75 · ×0.85 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.06 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

206d coverage
Net worth$2,785
Realized+$494
Unrealized−$230
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses119 / 100
Whale WR (big bets)57%
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions15
Markets (closed)219 / 234
History coverage206d
Avg bet$401
Trades / day9.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 15 History 219 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? No 95¢ 96¢ $525 $525 +$0 (+0%)
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30? No 96¢ 96¢ $382 $382 +$0 (+0%)
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? No 87¢ 88¢ $306 $309 +$3 (+1%)
Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Gaza by June 30? No 92¢ 97¢ $243 $257 +$14 (+6%)
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? No 91¢ 92¢ $228 $231 +$4 (+2%)
Israel closes its airspace by July 15? No 91¢ 90¢ $182 $181 −$1 (-1%)
Will Italy send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 2026? No 93¢ 95¢ $168 $172 +$4 (+2%)
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? Yes 53¢ 52¢ $159 $158 −$2 (-1%)
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? No 67¢ 74¢ $134 $147 +$13 (+10%)
Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026? No 75¢ 97¢ $105 $136 +$31 (+29%)
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by June 30? No 90¢ 91¢ $108 $109 +$1 (+1%)
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? No 83¢ 84¢ $89 $90 +$2 (+2%)
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? Yes 70¢ 78¢ $70 $78 +$9 (+12%)
Will the Republic of the Congo have an Ebola case in 2026? Yes 47¢ 30¢ $14 $9 −$5 (-37%)
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30? No 90¢ 0¢ $269 $0 −$269 (-100%)
Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026? Yes 90¢ 3¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-97%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 21? Jun 16 $62 −$61 -98%
Will Neuralink's valuation hit (LOW) $35B by June 30? Jun 14 $259 +$37 +14%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 12 $193 −$32 -16%
Will Neuralink's valuation hit (HIGH) $50B by June 30? Jun 11 $19 −$6 -31%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? Jun 11 $457 +$12 +3%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 11 $1,493 +$1,301 +87%
US-Iran nuclear deal by July 31? Jun 11 $396 −$96 -24%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 11 $1,409 −$34 -2%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Jun 11 $102 −$9 -9%
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 30? Jun 11 $110 −$72 -66%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 11 $360 −$80 -22%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 11 $658 −$178 -27%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 17? Jun 11 $466 −$437 -94%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $4,769 −$1,990 -42%
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by June 30? Jun 09 $454 +$423 +93%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? Jun 01 $58 +$5 +8%
Will Neuralink's valuation hit (HIGH) $100B by December 31? May 31 $110 +$65 +60%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by May 31? May 30 $537 +$38 +7%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? May 30 $308 +$24 +8%
Will Montenegro be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026? May 28 $3 −$3 -100%
US x Cuba diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026? May 28 $148 −$148 -100%
Will Portugal be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026? May 28 $11 −$11 -100%
Will Austria be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026? May 28 $18 −$18 -100%
Will Armenia be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026? May 28 $17 −$17 -100%
Will Norway be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026? May 28 $22 −$22 -100%
Will Switzerland be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026? May 28 $16 −$16 -100%
Will San Marino be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026? May 28 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Latvia be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026? May 28 $19 −$19 -100%
Will Luxembourg be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026? May 28 $16 −$16 -100%
Will Lithuania be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026? May 28 $29 −$29 -100%
Will Poland win the first Eurovision Semi-Final? May 28 $26 +$117 +444%
Will Poland be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026? May 28 $11 −$11 -100%
Will Georgia be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026? May 28 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Estonia be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026? May 28 $19 −$19 -100%
Will Germany be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026? May 28 $26 −$26 -100%
Will United Kingdom be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026? May 28 $33 −$33 -100%
Will Belgium be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026? May 28 $16 −$16 -100%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by May 31st? May 28 $510 +$20 +4%
Will Azerbaijan be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026? May 28 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Serbia win the first Eurovision Semi-Final? May 28 $15 +$15 +101%
Will Sweden win the first Eurovision Semi-Final? May 28 $28 −$6 -23%
Will Montenegro win the first Eurovision Semi-Final? May 28 $17 +$39 +234%
Will Portugal win the first Eurovision Semi-Final? May 28 $26 +$27 +103%
Will Georgia win the first Eurovision Semi-Final? May 28 $27 −$22 -81%
Will Estonia win the first Eurovision Semi-Final? May 28 $23 +$34 +150%
Will Belgium win the first Eurovision Semi-Final? May 28 $24 +$36 +150%
Will San Marino win the first Eurovision Semi-Final? May 28 $21 −$12 -57%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 30, 2026? May 28 $1,652 −$27 -2%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? May 26 $1,740 +$10 +1%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 26 $3,749 +$6 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 67¢ $134 1h
Will Italy send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 2026 BUY No 93¢ $139 1h
Will Italy send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 2026 BUY No 95¢ $29 1h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? BUY No 91¢ $228 13h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $49 13h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 87¢ $213 13h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 87¢ $44 13h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $476 13h
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? BUY No 83¢ $12 13h
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? BUY No 83¢ $37 13h
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? BUY Yes 70¢ $71 13h
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by June 30? BUY No 90¢ $108 13h
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? BUY No 83¢ $23 14h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? BUY Yes 53¢ $162 14h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $5 14h
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? BUY No 83¢ $16 14h
Israel closes its airspace by July 15? BUY No 91¢ $182 14h
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $382 14h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $44 14h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 21? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 6d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 21? BUY Yes 10¢ $34 6d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 21? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 6d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 21? BUY Yes 10¢ $0 6d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 21? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 6d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 21? BUY Yes 12¢ $5 6d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 21? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 6d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 21? BUY Yes 10¢ $19 6d
Will Neuralink's valuation hit (LOW) $35B by June 30? SELL No 84¢ $20 7d
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL No 81¢ $161 9d
Will Neuralink's valuation hit (LOW) $35B by June 30? SELL No 84¢ $21 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,784.53 · official $2,784.53 (match) · 2134 history records