Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T21:07:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
79 0x79a6…c010 crypto 88 markets active 1h ago coverage 10d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
Total PnL +$43 (+4%) realized −$50 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate61%53W / 34L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$13per market
Trades / day32.5pace
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$24
7 days−$42
14 days−$50
30 days−$50
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$50
other 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-8.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 37 -15.1% -23.2% 62% 22% -16.7%
≤30d 87 +1.3% -8.3% 61% 34% -13.6%
≤90d 87 +1.3% -8.3% 61% 34% -13.6%
all 87 +1.3% -8.3% 61% 34% -13.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover32.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -8.3% 34% -13.6%
10% ← realistic here -17.1% 24% -21.9%
15% -25.1% 20% -29.4%
20% -32.4% 10% -36.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 22% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
40% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early 20.68623698833109% → late -17.54842611387394% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$6 · ×0.49 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.76 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

10d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$50
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)61%
Wins / losses53 / 34
Open positions1
Markets (closed)87 / 88
History coverage10d
Avg bet$13
Trades / day32.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 87 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+50%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Down 1¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Solana Up or Down - June 5, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Up 2¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Up 51¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Down 74¢ 0¢ $13 $0 −$13 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 10PM ET Up 12¢ 0¢ $18 $0 −$18 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Up 34¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Up 45¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Down 1¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Up 1¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 8AM ET Down 15¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Up 71¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 14 $37 −$9 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 14 $51 −$49 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Jun 14 $15 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 14 $15 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 14 $14 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 14 $50 +$2 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Jun 14 $7 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 14 $50 +$2 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 14 $47 +$7 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 14 $40 +$7 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 14 $26 +$11 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 14 $25 +$3 +13%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 14 $6 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 14 $7 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 14 $7 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 14 $6 $0 +5%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 14 $6 +$1 +10%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $1 $0 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 12 $2 −$1 -41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 12 $6 −$5 -90%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jun 12 $0 $0 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET Jun 12 $15 −$1 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Jun 12 $21 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Jun 12 $5 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 10 $9 −$1 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Jun 10 $29 +$4 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Jun 10 $18 −$7 -38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jun 10 $9 +$2 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jun 10 $3 −$2 -84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 10 $4 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 10 $9 −$4 -47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 10 $6 −$4 -76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jun 10 $6 −$4 -72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Jun 10 $7 +$5 +78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 07 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 07 $3 +$2 +72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 07 $8 −$6 -74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 07 $16 +$3 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Jun 07 $15 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 07 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 4PM ET Jun 06 $148 −$39 -27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 3PM ET Jun 06 $50 +$20 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 2PM ET Jun 06 $25 +$10 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 1PM ET Jun 06 $15 $0 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 6, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 06 $5 −$2 -47%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 6, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 06 $8 −$4 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 8AM ET Jun 06 $23 −$6 -28%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Down 74¢ $13 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET SELL Down 79¢ $13 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Down 76¢ $13 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET SELL Down 72¢ $14 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET SELL Up 3¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET BUY Up 74¢ $51 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $15 2h
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $15 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $14 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET SELL Down 98¢ $52 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $50 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $7 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $50 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET SELL Up 83¢ $54 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Up 70¢ $47 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET SELL Up 98¢ $47 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET BUY Up 83¢ $40 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET SELL Down 96¢ $36 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Down 66¢ $26 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET SELL Up 86¢ $29 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET BUY Up 74¢ $25 4h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $7 4h
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $6 4h
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $7 5h
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $6 6h
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET BUY Down 90¢ $6 6h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 17¢ $1 11h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $1 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Up 71¢ $1 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.03 · official $0.03 (match) · 351 history records