Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T22:36:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5

score

79 0x79a5…91b3 sports 6 markets active 2h ago coverage 1d

RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover

Total PnL +$2 (+2%) realized +$27 · open −$25

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +7% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip

Net edge-11%after slip

Net WR50%break-even

Win rate100%2W / 0L

Drawdown0%max

Avg bet$20per market

Trades / day9.0pace

Fees−$0est.

Kalshi-fit67%portable

Net worth$67now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +50%

net ROI/market (all)-3.1%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	2	+7.0%	-3.1%	100%	50%	-0.6%
≤30d	2	+7.0%	-3.1%	100%	50%	-0.6%
≤90d	2	+7.0%	-3.1%	100%	50%	-0.6%
all	2	+7.0%	-3.1%	100%	50%	-0.6%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover9.0 tr/day

realistic slip~9%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-3.1%	50%	-0.6%
10%	-12.4%	0%	-10.2%
15%	-20.9%	0%	-18.8%
20%	-28.6%	0%	-26.8%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 95% · top 2 100% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +10% too few recent

Fragile wins

50% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +7% · $-wt +10% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$1 vs — no data

Profit factor

— no data

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage

Net worth$67

Realized+$27

Unrealized−$25

Win rate (resolved)100%

Wins / losses2 / 0

Est. fees paid−$0

Open positions4

Markets (closed)2 / 6

History coverage1d

Avg bet$20

Trades / day9.0

Drawdown0%

Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 4 History 2 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
France vs. Iraq: O/U 1.5	Over	89¢	88¢	$60	$60	−$0 (-1%)
Will Alex Bores win the NY-12 Democratic Primary by 5% or more?	Yes	18¢	16¢	$1	$1	−$0 (-8%)
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21?	Yes	70¢	6¢	$10	$1	−$9 (-92%)
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 1.5	Over	78¢	0¢	$15	$0	−$15 (-100%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21?	Jun 21	$20	+$2	+12%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 0.5	Jun 21	$5	$0	+2%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
France vs. Iraq: O/U 1.5	BUY Over	89¢	$60	1h
Will Alex Bores win the NY-12 Democratic Primary by 5% or more?	BUY Yes	18¢	$1	3h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21?	BUY Yes	70¢	$10	4h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21?	SELL Yes	69¢	$10	4h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21?	BUY Yes	70¢	$10	4h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21?	SELL Yes	100¢	$22	6h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 1.5	BUY Over	78¢	$15	7h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 0.5	BUY Over	98¢	$5	7h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21?	BUY Yes	89¢	$20	7h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $66.67 · official $66.67 (match) · 9 history records