Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T03:24:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
79 0x79a0…bde1 other 21 markets active 1h ago coverage 85d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ net negative once open positions are counted! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$2 (-1%) realized +$0 · open −$2
Gross ROI / mkt +12% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +1% what you keep after slip
Net edge+1%after slip
Net WR20%break-even
Win rate47%7W / 8L
Drawdown6%max
Avg bet$10per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit33%portable
Net worth$38now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$352
7 days+$352
14 days+$352
30 days+$352
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 48% +$31
sports 30% +$342
politics 19% −$22
tech 3% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +20%
net ROI/market (all)+1.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +685.4% +610.6% 100% 100% +610.6%
≤30d 1 +685.4% +610.6% 100% 100% +610.6%
≤90d 15 +11.8% +1.1% 47% 20% +177.3%
all 15 +11.8% +1.1% 47% 20% +177.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +1.1% 20% +177.3%
10% -8.6% 13% +150.7%
15% -17.4% 13% +126.5%
20% -25.5% 13% +104.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 89% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +206% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
57% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +12% · $-wt +206% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -53% → late +69% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$56 vs −$5 · ×10.38 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×9.09 per $1 lost it wins $9.09
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

85d coverage
Net worth$38
Realized+$0
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses7 / 8
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions6
Markets (closed)15 / 21
History coverage85d
Avg bet$10
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown6%
Kalshi-fit33%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 15 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Yes 69¢ 69¢ $21 $21 +$0 (+1%)
Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 0 Japan? Yes $8 $7 −$0 (-6%)
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 1 Austria? Yes $5 $5 −$0 (-7%)
Will GPT-6 be released before GTA VI? Yes 66¢ 52¢ $6 $4 −$1 (-21%)
Will Bernie endorse Alan Grayson for FL-Sen Nov 2 2026 ET? Yes 11¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+19%)
Will Freddie Mac’s market cap be between $150B and $200B at market close on IPO day? Yes $0 $0 −$0 (-75%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 21 $51 +$352 +685%
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? May 21 $23 −$22 -97%
Will Marseille finish in the top 4 of the Ligue 1 2025–26 standings? May 11 $29 +$42 +144%
Will Julian Alvarez be the 2025/2026 top UCL goal scorer? May 09 $8 $0 +1%
Will de Goes Rodrygo be the 2025/2026 top UCL goal scorer? Apr 16 $8 $0 +0%
Will J.J. Spaun win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Chris Gotterup win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 13 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Shane Lowry win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 13 $2 $0 +7%
Will Jacob Bridgeman win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 13 $4 $0 +1%
Will Sam Burns win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 13 $4 +$1 +14%
Will Fulham be relegated from the English Premier League after the 202 Apr 11 $8 −$6 -80%
Will Aldo Rebelo win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 11 $17 $0 -0%
Will Ollie Watkins be the top goal scorer in the 2025–26 English Premi Apr 03 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Bryan Mbeumo be the top goal scorer in the 2025–26 English Premie Mar 30 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Celta win the 2025-26 UEFA Europa League? Mar 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 1 Austria? BUY Yes $5 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 69¢ $21 1h
Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 0 Japan? BUY Yes $8 1h
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? SELL Yes 89¢ $403 1h
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 11¢ $51 3h
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? SELL Yes $1 31d
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY Yes 46¢ $1 68d
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY Yes 45¢ $10 68d
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY Yes 22¢ $2 69d
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY Yes 18¢ $10 70d
Will Shane Lowry win the 2026 Masters tournament? BUY No 93¢ $2 70d
Will Sam Burns win the 2026 Masters tournament? BUY No 88¢ $4 70d
Will Fulham be relegated from the English Premier League after the 202 SELL Yes $2 70d
Will Aldo Rebelo win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL Yes $17 70d
Will Chris Gotterup win the 2026 Masters tournament? BUY Yes $2 74d
Will Chris Gotterup win the 2026 Masters tournament? BUY Yes $1 74d
Will Chris Gotterup win the 2026 Masters tournament? BUY Yes $1 74d
Will Chris Gotterup win the 2026 Masters tournament? BUY Yes $1 74d
Will Chris Gotterup win the 2026 Masters tournament? BUY Yes $0 74d
Will Chris Gotterup win the 2026 Masters tournament? BUY Yes $0 74d
Will Jacob Bridgeman win the 2026 Masters tournament? BUY No 99¢ $4 74d
Will J.J. Spaun win the 2026 Masters tournament? BUY Yes $5 74d
Will Aldo Rebelo win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY Yes $16 75d
Will Aldo Rebelo win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY Yes $1 75d
Will Bernie endorse Alan Grayson for FL-Sen Nov 2 2026 ET? BUY Yes $0 75d
Will GPT-6 be released before GTA VI? BUY Yes 66¢ $4 75d
Will GPT-6 be released before GTA VI? BUY Yes 66¢ $1 75d
Will Ollie Watkins be the top goal scorer in the 2025–26 English Premi BUY Yes $1 78d
Will Julian Alvarez be the 2025/2026 top UCL goal scorer? BUY No 99¢ $8 79d
Will Ollie Watkins be the top goal scorer in the 2025–26 English Premi BUY Yes $0 80d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $37.51 · official $37.52 (match) · 59 history records