Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T15:25:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
79 0x799f…4b5b other 238 markets active 0h ago coverage 130d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$67 (-0%) realized −$67 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate6%14W / 224L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$209per market
Trades / day9.9pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit58%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$7
7 days−$19
14 days−$33
30 days−$40
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 46% −$36
sports 22% −$14
politics 8% −$6
economics 8% −$9
culture 7% −$9
crypto 4% −$2
world 3% −$3
tech 2% −$1
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 35 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 74 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 184 -0.2% -9.7% 2% 0% -9.7%
all 238 -0.2% -9.7% 6% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 35% · top 2 54% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.96 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.06 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

130d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$67
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)6%
Wins / losses14 / 224
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions0
Markets (closed)238 / 238
History coverage130d
Avg bet$209
Trades / day9.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit58%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 238 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the Green Bay Packers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 20 $205 −$1 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 20 $187 $0 -0%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? Jun 20 $396 −$1 -0%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 20 $50 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? Jun 20 $270 −$1 -0%
Will Seattle Sounders FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 19 $116 $0 -0%
Will the Washington Commanders win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 19 $206 $0 -0%
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? Jun 19 $541 −$1 -0%
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 19 $323 −$1 -0%
Will the International Court of Justice win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2 Jun 19 $152 $0 -0%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $464 −$1 -0%
Will the New York Mets win the 2026 World Series? Jun 19 $150 $0 -0%
Will the Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 18 $252 $0 -0%
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 18 $51 $0 -0%
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 18 $690 −$2 -0%
Will the Cleveland Guardians win the 2026 World Series? Jun 18 $426 −$1 -0%
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 18 $174 −$1 -0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 17 $336 −$1 -0%
Will Charlie Kirk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 17 $394 −$1 -0%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $271 $0 -0%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $512 −$1 -0%
Will Orlando City SC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 16 $323 −$1 -0%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? Jun 16 $111 $0 -0%
Will Real Salt Lake win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 16 $250 −$1 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 16 $710 −$1 -0%
Will the Detroit Lions win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 15 $53 $0 -0%
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 15 $247 −$1 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $154 $0 -0%
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 15 $338 −$1 -0%
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 15 $680 −$1 -0%
Will Khaled Mashal win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 14 $249 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 14 $54 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 14 $119 $0 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $54 $0 -0%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 13 $251 −$1 -0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 13 $260 $0 -0%
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 13 $400 −$1 -0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Jun 12 $372 $0 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 12 $440 −$1 -0%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $551 −$1 -0%
Will the Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 12 $55 $0 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $660 −$1 -0%
Will the Cincinnati Bengals win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 11 $142 $0 -0%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 11 $168 $0 -0%
Will Xi Jinping win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 11 $469 −$2 -0%
Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 11 $213 −$1 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 11 $276 $0 -0%
Will the Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 11 $193 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $500,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 11 $154 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? Jun 10 $359 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the Green Bay Packers win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 97¢ $50 21m
Will the Green Bay Packers win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 97¢ $50 1h
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $50 3h
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $50 5h
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 98¢ $50 6h
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 98¢ $50 8h
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 98¢ $50 9h
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 98¢ $50 10h
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 98¢ $50 12h
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 98¢ $50 13h
Will Seattle Sounders FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 96¢ $19 15h
Will Seattle Sounders FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 96¢ $19 17h
Will the Washington Commanders win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $50 18h
Will the Washington Commanders win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $51 20h
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $51 22h
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $51 23h
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 98¢ $51 24h
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 98¢ $51 25h
Will the International Court of Justice win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2 SELL No 98¢ $43 25h
Will the International Court of Justice win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2 SELL No 98¢ $8 27h
Will the International Court of Justice win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2 BUY No 98¢ $51 28h
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $51 30h
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $51 32h
Will the New York Mets win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 98¢ $51 37h
Will the New York Mets win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $51 39h
Will the Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $51 40h
Will the Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $51 42h
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 98¢ $51 46h
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 98¢ $51 47h
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $51 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1344 history records